France 2017 Election Thread

Saruman Monday 20 Feb 2017

I think the possibility of a "Popular Front" 2.0 is pretty dead now 5371 . I used to think something like that was possible too, but that was back when the Socialists were polling clearly in 5th place and looked like they would finish solidly behind Melenchon. For it to happen it would have to be the Socialists being the one to drop out (Melenchon's ego is too big) and now that they've recovered their ground somewhat (last couple polls have Hamon in the 14-16% range and pretty squarely ahead of Melenchon) I don't see the PS throwing the towel in, they've got large egos too.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 22 Feb 2017

Emmanuel Macron loses lead in French election polls after remarks on colonial Algeria and gay marriage spark outrage

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist French presidential contender , struggled to get his campaign back on track on Saturday after losing his poll lead over controversial remarks on France’s colonial record and gay marriage.

Mr Macron had overtaken François Fillon , the conservative candidate and former favourite embroiled in a corruption scandal , but the latest polls indicate that the two candidates are now neck-and-neck.

Mr Macron provoked outrage on the Right by describing colonial rule as a “crime against humanity” during a visit to Algeria, once the jewel in France’s imperial crown.

The 39-year-old independent, a relative political newcomer, then infuriated Left-wing supporters by trying to reach out to Right-wingers who opposed gay marriage, saying they had been stigmatised and “humiliated” under President Hollande’s Socialist government.

Mr Macron visits the French Fire Station during an election campaign visit on Saturday Credit: EPA
Protesters heckled Mr Macron in the south of France, home to a large number of 'pieds noirs’ — former settlers who left Algeria after independence, and their descendants. Many support Marine Le Pen, who along with Mr Fillon rounded on Mr Macron, accusing him of trying to ingratiate himself with voters of immigrant origin.

Mr Macron sought to defend himself by saying said he had not meant “to say that those who were living in Algeria and who served in the French army [during the war that led to independence in 1962] were guilty of crimes against humanity, as the French state was solely responsible.”

According to an OpinionWay poll, Mr Macron and Mr Fillon ended the week level-pegging on 20 per cent, with both men trailing Ms Le Pen, on 26 per cent.

An IFOP survey indicated a wider gap, with Mr Macron and Mr Fillon both on 18.5 per cent. Ms Le Pen is expected to win the first-round vote in April but polls suggest she will be defeated by whichever candidate goes through to the decisive second round runoff the following month.

A man holds a placard reading "Jail for Fillon" Credit: AFP
Mr Fillon has vowed to stay in the race despite an ongoing investigation into allegations that he claimed €900,000 of taxpayers’ money for fictitious jobs for his British wife, Penelope, and two of their children as parliamentary aides.

Ms Le Pen, an MEP, is also accused of giving two associates fictitious posts as parliamentary aides. She said she was suing the EU’s anti-fraud agency over the accusations and has refused to repay more than €300,000.

Hundreds f protesters disrupted her rally in the eastern town of Clairvaux-les-Lacs on Friday by banging pots, while Mr Fillon faced a similar cacophony in Tourcoing, northern France.

Protesters in France traditionally bash pots and pans to signify anger over corruption, as a pot (‘casserole’ in French) is a slang term for a financial scandal.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 22 Feb 2017

French police raid headquarters of Marine Le Pen's Front National party

French police were searching the headquarters of Marine Le Pen's National Front party west of Paris on Monday in relation to an alleged "fake jobs" probe.

The European parliament's anti-fraud agency, Olaf, has said that, in her role as French National Front leader Le Pen had during the 2011-12 legislature paid party staff with EU funds, which EU rules say should be used only to pay EU lawmakers' assistants.

But the FN accused the authorities of staging a media stunt to discredit them.

"It looks on the face of it like a media operation whose goal is to disturb the course of the presidential campaign," the National Front said in a statement.

French judges opened a fraud investigation on 15 December after prosecutors handed the dossier over to them following a preliminary investigation of more than a year.

"This is as void as space," the party's vice-president Florian Philippot told BFM television, adding that searches had taken place a year ago and nothing had been found then.

"These are media-stunt searches on the day when she (Le Pen) gets a 2-point bounce in the polls. It's always when the system is in panic that these affairs come out."

An Opinionway poll of voting intentions on Monday had Le Pen easily beating her four main rivals to win the April 23 first round with 27 percent of the vote.

In the second-round two-way runoff against Macron or Fillon, she was still seen losing, but both scenarios saw her narrowing the gap.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 23 Feb 2017

Marine Le Pen has a better chance in France than you think

The most distinctive characteristic of the French presidential election campaign so far has been its dramatic challenge to the French establishment. Former conservative leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé were soundly defeated in the Republican primary, while the abysmally unpopular François Hollande was forced to withdraw from the race — the first time a sitting president has been too weak to stand for re-election. To complete the rout, prime minister Manuel Valls was pushed out of the Socialist primary by the more radical Benoît Hamon.

This anti-incumbent surge echoes the Anglo-American insurgencies that recently produced the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But it also expresses a widespread French distrust of political parties, itself part of an older anti-establishment populist tradition. “Sortez les sortants” (“Kick the bums out”), the slogan of the 1950s populist politician Pierre Poujade, could well serve as the motto of the 2017 campaign.

Turbulence has now become the defining feature of the campaign. The Republicans’ candidate, François Fillon, who at the end of 2016 looked like he was coasting to an easy victory, has become mired in a scandal after the satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné uncovered how he allegedly turned his parliamentary allowances into family benefits over a period of more than two decades.

Although Mr Fillon survived the revelations, and offered a (grudging) apology, the scandal has damaged his position in the polls. The affair also revealed the underlying frailty of his campaign, widely perceived as unimaginative, lacking a presidential grand narrative and incoherent: for all his claims to represent fundamental change, Mr Fillon was, after all, Mr Sarkozy’s prime minister for five years.

The immediate beneficiary of Mr Fillon’s misfortunes was Emmanuel Macron, Mr Hollande’s former economy minister, who is running as an independent centrist. Mr Macron’s appeal lies in his youthful energy, intelligence, cosmopolitan outlook and his belief that the French people are tired of the hackneyed debates between left and right.

Borrowing from the Poujadiste playbook and pitching himself as an outsider, he saw his ratings surge as he briefly overtook Mr Fillon in the polls. But Mr Macron, too, has now become embroiled in controversy: his description of the French colonial era in Algeria as a “crime against humanity” provoked an outcry among conservatives.

Interesting in itself as a measure of the continuing incapacity of French elites to address France’s colonial legacy, the row also underscores Mr Macron’s greatest frailty: his vulnerability to attack as soon as he offers specific pronouncements (so far, his campaign has been decidedly thin on detail). More fundamentally, as a graduate of the École Nationale d’Administration, the cocoon for the French elite, a former banker at Rothschild’s and close adviser to the president, his claims to represent renewal are unsustainable.

Markets Bund moves need to be put in perspective European indices and single currency show no signs of big risk-off mood The misfortunes of Messrs Fillon and Macron should have provided a perfect opportunity for the two main candidates of the left, Mr Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who both espouse a form of progressive populism. Their programmes overlap in a number of significant respects — notably on the need for a new constitutional settlement in the form of a “Sixth Republic”, the abolition of controversial labour laws and higher taxes on the wealthy.

These convergences could have provided the basis for a common platform, thereby energising the leftwing rank and file who have been in a catatonic state during the Hollande presidency. But it appears that negotiations between the two men have broken down, with the abrasive Mr Mélenchon declaring that he had “no intention of going and hitching myself to a hearse”.

With a neutered right, a flaky centre and a divided left, the only beneficiary has been Marine Le Pen — fittingly, as her far-right National Front is the inheritor of the Poujadiste tradition. She is now clearly the frontrunner, and though the polls predict that she would lose to any mainstream candidate in the second round of the presidential election, the margins of her projected defeats are getting thinner.

Until now, the prevailing view has been that it is inconceivable that France could elect a National Front president. Yet we have heard that before, closer to home. If French political elites do not get their act together soon, a Poujadiste “Frexiter” and admirer of Mr Trump could well find herself in the Elysée Palace in May.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 23 Feb 2017

Le Pen Wins Over Women Voters Who Feel Left Behind in France

French women are starting to picture their next president as a divorced mother of three.

The anti-euro, anti-immigrant candidate Marine Le Pen has been playing up her gender as she seeks to convert a likely first-round victory into an overall majority in the run-off on May 7 -- and it’s paying off. The 48-year-old National Front leader has already rallied some 2 million additional female voters to her cause since her last run for president in 2012 and she’s betting more will follow.

“Women are the key,” said Nonna Mayer, a researcher at the Sciences Po institute in Paris who has studied the National Front for 25 years. “These women often abstain and now they are backing Le Pen to protect their jobs and their security.”

While women make up just over half of the electorate in France they are far less likely to turn out than men, offering a well of untapped support for the candidate who manages to tune into their concerns. Le Pen’s pitch weaves together concerns about immigration, security, and the economic decline of many white French communities into a potent populist brew that borrows freely from U.S. President Donald Trump, blaming “the elite” for the problems of ordinary voters.

In 2012 Le Pen lagged behind with female voters, winning 17 percent compared with 20 percent of men’s ballots. Now she’s closed that gender gap, attracting 26 percent of voters of both sexes, according of pollster Ifop. That makes her the favored candidate among women for the first round.

“What she is proposing is really different, just like Trump offered something really new,” said Cindy Blain, a 27-year-old pharmacist in the rural north east of France. “Maybe if we see Trump succeed, then voters will give her a chance.”

Glossy Brochure
The prospect of a populist president committed to taking France out of the single currency pushed the spread between French 10-year bonds and similar-maturity German bunds to its widest in more than four years on Wednesday. The risk premium dropped 3 basis points to 76 basis points at 5:24 p.m. Paris time after earlier reaching 84 basis points.

Asked if she was concerned about the risks involved in Le Pen’s plan to leave the euro, Blain brushed the question off with a flick of her hand, as if swatting away a fly.

For a dashboard on European political risk, click here

Le Pen’s bid for women’s votes is clear: on Feb. 4 she began distributing 4 million copies of a glossy, magazine-style brochure that set out her plan to “defend French women” as the country’s first female president. The pamphlet was interspersed with pictures of her navigating “the world of men” as a sister, mother, lawyer, sailor and political leader and included a promise to be a shield against Islamic fundamentalists who, she said, want to stop women “wearing a skirt, going to work or to the bistro.”

“This is not a feminist vote,” Mayer said.

Le Pen sent another signal to the voters Tuesday on a visit to Beirut, when she refused to wear a head scarf to meet with a senior Muslim official, who insisted she don one. With neither side backing down, she left without seeing him.

Working-Class Concerns
The National Front voted against a proposal to secure equal rights for women in the European parliament in March, but Le Pen again vowed to protect French women after the mass sexual assault by groups of men in Cologne, Germany, just over a year ago in an op-ed that tied together immigration and women rights.

“Le Pen isn’t asking for equality, she’s promising justice and security,” said Nicolas Lebourg, a researcher on French far-right politics at the University of Montpellier. “And that often resonates more with women facing the challenges of everyday life.”

As well as the surge of support from women, surveys show she’s gained support among less-educated voters, rural communities and those in lower-paid jobs. She’s doubled her poll scores among retirees, though she still lags Republican candidate Francois Fillon.

‘Quite Scary’
Still, not all women are persuaded by Le Pen’s claims to represent the sisterhood.

“It’d be good if we were to elect a woman but not this one,” said Florence Charlet, a 44-year-old hairdresser from Le Pen’s northern heartlands of the Pas-de-Calais region. “She’s actually quite scary for a woman. She’s not soft-spoken, she’s quite virile.”

Le Pen’s first round polling projections equate to about 10 million votes in the first round and it typically takes about 18 million to win the run-off.

That may be a stretch, according to Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo Securities in Paris, but she does have a chance if she faces the Republican Francois Fillon or Benoit Hamon of the Socialists in the run-off. In that scenario, turnout may be depressed and Le Pen could win with as few as 14 million votes, Cavalier said in a research note Monday, though he gave her just an 11 percent chance of victory.

Bookmakers rate her chances much higher at 34 percent and the pollster Elabe on Tuesday showed Le Pen exceeding 40 percent in the run-off against either Fillon or the independent Emmanuel Macron for the first time.

Still, Le Pen’s polling numbers may be less reliable than those for the mainstream candidates, according to Mayer, because fewer voters have a track record of voting for her and newly recruited sympathizers may not actually turn out to vote on May 7.

“I don’t know who I’ll vote for,” Blain, the pharmacist, said. “I’m still looking. I may decide at the last moment.”

Emmanuel Macron Thursday 23 Feb 2017

The eternal Fem will never vote for someone as far right as le pen

Småland Friday 24 Feb 2017

France's Macron raises curtain on election alliance to beat Le Pen

Jadot pulls out and on the possibility of a Bayrou-Macron alliance and a socialist alliance:

France's presidential race took a new turn on Thursday as independent Emmanuel Macron raised the curtain on a partnership with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou to help him beat the far-right's Marine Le Pen.

"Political times have changed. We cannot continue as before. The National Front is at the gates of power. It plays on fear," Macron said, referring to Le Pen's once-shunned party.

Opinion polls appeared to show the 39-year-old Macron, a political novice who has never held elected office but who has soared to become a favorite to enter the Elysee, was already benefiting from the new-born alliance announced on Wednesday.

After meeting Bayrou, the fresh-faced former investment banker said he saw the new partnership as a turning point "not only in the campaign but also in French political life" - meaning it would be a break with the left-right rotation of power that has dominated French politics for decades.

Standing with Bayrou, a 65-year-old centrist who has run for president unsuccessfully three times, Macron told reporters they stood between France and a Le Pen regime of "fear".

All polls say Le Pen, leader of the anti-immigrant and anti-European Union National Front, will come first in the initial round of voting on April 23 but lose to either Macron or conservative candidate Francois Fillon in the May 7 runoff.

Two new opinion polls released as they met showed Macron still neck-and-neck with Fillon.

A third poll, collected by Ifop Fiducial over the past three days and thus including some reaction to Wednesday night's tie-up with Bayrou, showed Macron's first round score boosted by 3.5 points to 22.5 percent, ahead of Fillon on 20.5.

Polls have suggested that Bayrou has the support of about five percent of French voters, and his backing for Macron could prove crucial to his election success.

In an interview with Les Echos newspaper on Thursday, Macron, who says he wants to transcend the classic left-right divide, outlined his economic plans mixing tax cuts and a reduction in government jobs.

SOCIALISTS BOOST

The Socialists are given little chance of making the runoff after five years of unpopular rule by Socialist President Francois Hollande.

But Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, who routinely trails in fourth place in opinion polls, received a boost when Greens candidate Yannick Jadot withdrew from the race after striking an agreement with Hamon's camp.

Opinion polls show Jadot would win only a tiny percentage of votes in the election - between 1 and 2 percent - but the move is a step forward in Hamon's hopes of unifying left-wing forces

Hamon has sought to persuade hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has a strong core support of over 10 percent, to pull out as candidate and join forces with him to give the Left a chance of retaining power.

Melenchon has so far refused to do so, referring to the Socialist campaign train disparagingly as a "hearse". After Jadot's announcement on Thursday, Melenchon said he remained open to dialogue with Hamon and had not "closed any door".

Le Pen, in a speech on Thursday dedicated to foreign policy, suggested France should pull out of NATO's military wing and praised Russia as a "decisive force" in the world.

RELATED COVERAGE

French green candidate Jadot withdraws from presidential race

France's Macron unveils mix of tax cuts, spending cuts in economic plans

"The historic ties that have linked us with the United States since the War of Independence does not prevent us from leaving NATO's integrated command structure," she told supporters.

The campaigns of both Le Pen and of Fillon, a former prime minister, have been shaken by investigations into allegations that they misused public money. Both have denied wrongdoing.

Fillon, 62, was once the frontrunner but is now engulfed in a scandal over salaries paid to his wife and children out of public funds for work they are alleged to have not carried out. He says they did the work for which they were paid.

Le Pen is facing accusations she paid her chief of staff and bodyguard illicitly from European Parliament funds that she is now being pressed by the assembly to repay.

Florian Philippot, one of Le Pen's main aides, said on BFMTV that the National Front would not turn up if she was summoned to appear in court over the EU fake jobs affair.

Emmanuel Macron Friday 24 Feb 2017

France was dead in 1789. These are just nails in the coffin

Mireman Saturday 25 Feb 2017

Hamon's eyes remind me of that spoopy Danish accelerationist MP you guys were posting about a couple months ago. The one who was talking about a propertyless utopia, etc.

France 2017 Election Thread

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