France 2017 Election Thread

10 posts

TQP
chairman

Very bad day for Fillon. He's been order to appear before a judge over the scandal with his wife and he's faced severe criticism from politicians and the media, many calls for him to rescind his candidacy. Bad news, I think he's clearly a much better match for Le Pen than Macron.

5371

Fillon would be a much better president than Macron, but I don't think he would be easier for MLP to beat.

Saruman

Of course he would. Fillon's Thatcherism is absolute poison to the left. They would sit out the runoff if it was Fillon-Le Pen.

Which is probably why they're trying like hell to make sure Macron gets into the runoff.

5371

They didn't sit out in 2002, I doubt this time would be that different. Macron is just as Thatcherist as Fillon. Obviously MLP would get vastly more votes than JMLP did anyway, because the FN base is now much bigger. But I think the dynamic would be the same.

Niccolo and Donkey
All polling (I know, I know) shows that Le Pen does much, much better in a head on match up against Fillon that she does against Macron simply due to Fillon's Thatherism and social conservatism. Fillon in the second round means that the lefties stay home. Macron in the second round means that the lefties come out and Le Pen loses some of her leftist support as well.
Niccolo and Donkey
Marine Le Pen stripped of immunity by MEPs over Isis tweets

5371

Even in the polls, it's the homo 61-62% as against Fillon 58-59% versus MLP in a hypothetical 2nd round. Not a vast difference.

I think the ideal situation for MLP would be to face Macron with all Fillon's supporters in a (justifiable) white heat of rage at his treatment by the legal system and the media. The wild card is what that same legal system and media might get up to with respect to MLP herself.

Saruman


Saruman
From what twatter is saying, looks like Fillon is staying in.