The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Fitz
ISIS shoots down Russian helicopter over Syria killing two pilots
The helicopter was attacking the advancing terrorists near Palmyra when it was taken down - according to the Russian Defence Ministry

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wo pilots were shot down in a Mi-25 helicopter (file image)

ISIS militants have reportedly shot down a Russian helicopter over Syria.

The helicopter was attacking the advancing terrorists near Palmyra when it was taken down - according to the Russian Defence Ministry.

Early reports suggest two pilots on board the Mi-25 helicopter were killed.

A statement from the Russian Defence Ministry said: "The crew received a request from the Syrian unit's command to strike the advancing fighters.

"The captain, Ryafagat Khabibulin, made a decision to attack the terrorists.

"The skillful actions of the Russian crew thwarted the terrorists' advance.
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The Mi-25 Russian helicopter is reported to have been heading away from the area when it was shot down (file image)

"When the helicopter's ammunition was spent and it changed its course to the opposite direction, it was shot down by terrorists from the ground and crashed in an area controlled by the Syrian government army.

"The helicopter's crew was killed."

Yesterday, the ISIS-affiliated Amaaq news agency reported the group had shot down a Russian aircraft.

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The helicopter was shot down over the historic city of Palmyra

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The plane was shot down over Syria

A translated statement released by the agency said: "By Allah's grace alone, the soldiers of the Khilafah launched an attack with heavy weapons.

"The soldiers of the Khilafah shot down a Russian helicopter as it attempted to raid their locations, which led to destroying it and killing those on board and all praise is due to Allah."

The incident now means 12 Russian military personnel have died during the Syria conflict .
Welund
Fitz
Russian serviceman Nikita Shevchenko killed in Syria with rebel ATGM?

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23.07.2016 Расследования , Сирия Ruslan Leviev
Читать этот пост на русском

In the evening of July 22, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement that a Russian serviceman had been killed in Aleppo governorate, Syria. According to the MoD, Nikita Shevchenko was guarding a humanitarian convoy send to the locals by the Russian center for cessation of hostilities. «An improvised roadside bomb exploded at the entrance to a settlement», the Ministry stated.

The statement did not specify the settlement where the bomb was planted. The MoD added that military medics treated the soldier on site but failed to save his life. The latest remark could suggest that a day or more could have passed from the explosion to his death.

The situation on the ground in Aleppo has been pretty heated recently. On July 17, pro-Assad forces established control over Castello road to the northwest of Aleppo city. This road was the last supply route for opposition groups active in the city and 300,000 civilians remaining in the rebel-held part of Aleppo city. Due to the strategic importance of the road, several rebel groups have been attempting to reestablish control over it, counterattacking the positions of Syrian Arab Army and its allies.

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Map source

Circumstances of Nikita Shevchenko’s death

After the Russian Ministry of Defence recognized Shevchenko’s death, an islamist opposition group « Sham Legion » claimed on Twitter that the Russian serviceman was killed with an ATGM launched by the group. Here’s our translation of the tweets published by the group:

«On Monday, Kuly 18, we learned that a group of Russian officers came to Aleppo to install jamming devices» ( link to tweet ).

«Those jamming devices were supposed to be placed at Sheikh Yusuf hill in north Aleppo» ( link to tweet ).
«A group of technicians and guards were installing the jamming devices on one of the buildings» ( link to tweet ).

«An ATGM was launched at them, killing a large number of the officers and wounding the rest.

We did not spread this information before we made sure it was correct» ( link to tweet ).

«Today, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed a Russian serviceman named „Nikita Shevchenko“ was killed in Aleppo in an IED explosion» ( link to tweet ).

«They claimed he was guarding a humanitarian convoy.

Earlier they’d claimed that a soldier at Hmeymim airbase committed suicidedue to emotional problems.
This is all lies» ( link to tweet ).

«They all died at the hand of the heroes of Sham [historical Syria]. They are waging a barbaric war against civilians, against our people. God willing, Sham will be their graveyard» ( link to tweet ).

«The moment of explosion of the missile that hit the roof where the Russian officers were.

A video will be published in the coming hours» ( link to tweet ).

In the morning of July 23, the group posted the video purportedly showing an attack on a group of Russian officers upon Sheikh Yusuf hill:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/5dp_KTOc-oU

The Ministry of Defence has been repeatedly using the humanitarian convoy story, which makes their claim of the circumstances of Shevchenko’s death less credible. For instanc, this was the explanation of the death of the Russian marine Andrey Timoshenkov: according to the MoD , he stopped an car stuffed with explosives from reaching a humanitarian aid distribution depot. When commenting on the circumstances of the death of the Russian marine Alexandr Pozynich who took part in a search an rescued operation for the pilots of the downed Russian jet, the MoD claimed one of the helicopters was destroyed with mortar fire. However, a Free Syrian Army group published a video of the destrution of the Russian helicopter, showing that it was in fact destroyed with a TOW ATGM.

However, Sham Legion’s statement is also problematic. They claim they hadn’t shared the information on the Russian soldiers’ death. However, on July 18 «Fatah Halab» Twitter account posted a statement on «killing of Russian officers installing signal equipment upon Sheikh Yusuf hill» :



Fatah Halab is a joint operation room of Syrian opposition groups active in Aleppo. One of the group’s members is «Sham Legion», the group who has claimed Shevchenko was killed in thei attack. Sheikh Yusuf hill is to the east of Aleppo:

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Map link

Are there Russian soldiers near Sheikh Yusuf hill?

There is no official data on Russian soldiers’ presence in the area, but there is evidence suggesting this is the case. For instance, on July 17 «Sham Legion» posted a video of an ATGM strike on a 9K57 Uragaan MRLS at al-Nayrab airbase to the southeast of Aleppo.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/zMdAY49Udpo

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Right before the ATGM strike, the vehicle’s right door is open:

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A frame from a reference video of BM-27 Uragan battalion exercise shows that the crews often leave their vehicles’ doors open for a short time:

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On July 20, another video was posted, titled «Destruction of Assad gangs’ Hummvee» :

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/bjwxjbYM6z4

A close look at the video suggest it shows not a HMMWV but a Russian Gaz-Tigr armored car:

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On July 22, the group posted a video of the destruction of a helicopter, also at al-Nayrab:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/La5vkOim4Tw

In this video, we can see a military KamAZ-5350, which is used by Russian troops in Syria:

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KAMAZ-5350 reference photo:

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Source

What troops did Nikita Shevchenko serve in?

A local media from Shevchenko’s home town of Birobidzhan published photos showing a farewell ceremony for the soldier. One of the pictures shows a photo of Aleksandr Shevchenko in a Russian uniform:

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The photo clearly shows the insignia of rocket and artillery forces:

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Source

This begs the question: why did an artilleryman guard a humanitarian convoy? Russian convoys and cargo in Syria are guarded by marines, not artillerymen. Earlier, we’ve showsn that Russian artillery crews are fighting in Syria using Msta-B howitzers and BM-21 Grad and BM-30 Smerch MLRS.

On July 17, Faylag al-Sham posted a video showing an ATGM strike on a 9K57 Uragan MRLS. July 17 was also the day of Nikita Shevchenko’s last login to his vk.com (Russian Facebook-like website) profile:

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Shevchenko’s vk.com profile
Saved copy

Conclusions

The tense situation in Aleppo could explain the arrival of Russian soldiers rendering artillery and other support to pro-Assad forces. Various videos with Russian vehicles (GAZ Tigr armored car, KAMAZ-5350 truck, 9K57 Uragan MRLS) are indirect confirmation of this. Nikita Shevchenko’s insignia suggest he was an artilleryman, which casts doubt on the claim he was guarding a humanitarian convoy. Syrian rebel group «Sham Legion» has been posting videos of ATGM strikes on military vehicles and personnel. They have also claimed killing Russian officers. On July 17, «Sham Legion» posted a video of an ATGM strike on a 9K57 Uragan MRLS, which is used by Russian artillery. On the same day, the deceased artilleryman Nikita Shevchenko logged in into his vk.com account for the last time.

All of the above suggests it is possible that Nikita Shevchenko was killed in a July 17 ATGM strike on a 9K57 Uragan MRLS at Al-Nayrab airbase to the south-east of Aleppo city.

The version of the Russian MoD that Shevchenko was guarding a humanitarian convoy, as well as «Sham Legion» suggestion he was killed on July 18 in an ATGM attack on a group of Russian communications technicians, are less likely.
Niccolo and Donkey

Encirclement is complete.

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Niccolo and Donkey
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Local Daimyo

When the rebels failed to even really mount a serious attempt to take Nayrab Airbase in the first map in Nic's above post, when they controlled almost the whole city, they really lost their best chance to win the war.

Rebel supporters would blame this on ISIS, because ISIS was busily trying to undermine other rebels but hey that's what you get when ISIS is part of your coalition

Niccolo and Donkey
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Amadis

Sooooo...the big recent news is that Nusra has dissolved itself and re-created as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest of the Levant).

Watch the press conference:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/oossAtDYbrs

Or read the transcript:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/07/transcript-of-abu-muhammad-al-julanis-speech.php

Read the founding declaration:
http://ummahislam.net/jabhat-al-fath-al-sham-from-its-own-words-official-founding-declaration/

The big news is that JFS claims to have now cut external ties - which most take as meaning Al Qaeda. But that misreads the situation...

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the "director" (not emir) of Nusra and now JFS, gave his bayah to Zawahiri - that's man to man, not from Nusra to AQ. So even with the dissolution of JN, he is still Zawahiri's man. Similarly the line about external ties is a clever bit of linguistic misdirection - as many senior AQ people are already in Syria and are therefore "internal" (i.e. their deputy leader has probably been in Syria since 2015). So JFS remains within the AQ sphere.

Note that the last media release from JN's White Minaret media arm - which had previously only posted official JN content - was an audio message from Zawahiri and his general deputy Abu al-Khayr; usually this would be released by AQ's official as-Sahab media arm - at the end the mask can slip.

So why did they do this? Many have suggested it's because of the pressure of Russian and American bombing, as well as the increasing agreement between those two countries re: some aspect of Syria. That's partly true - although Russia was always going to carry on bombing and the USA has quickly announced that they consider JFS to be a terrorist organisation just like JN.

The bigger reason seems to be as a response to regional issues. Nusra has always operated amongst the rebels, rather than against them all as IS has. But JN had become too publicly known as an AQ front. Now by "cutting links", JFS can once again claim to simply be part of the Syrian jihad and re-embed itself among the rebels; expects mergers with ideologically sympathetic groups and coalitions featuring more "moderate" rebels in future. Some local governments might even consider funding JFS as it is now "non-AQ" (after all, the US supports the SDF - a front for the YPG, which is a front for the terrorist PKK).

Note that at the same time sources suddenly leaked / revealed that al-Jolani's real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shara and that he is a Syrian native - in other words, a local face for a local force. His "al-Jolani" kunya (military pseudonym), which could refer either to the Israeli-occupied Golan heights or the Jolan district in Fallujah (al-Jolani fought for IS in Iraq) is now less useful than a local identity.

JFS will be able to use these alliances to re-situate itself at the heart of the rebellion, making efforts to get rid of them much harder. With this cloak of local legitimacy they can seek to control the direction of the Syrian Jihad until the point comes when they are powerful enough to reveal their true nature.

If you want to see this in action just watch the press conference: Jolani deliberately dressed like UBL, flanked by Abu Faraj al-Masri (a senior AQ member since the 1990s) on one side and Abu Abdullah al-Shami (a young, more junior cleric) on the other. No doubt al-Shami was chosen over a more famous cleric like the AQ-linked al-Muhaysini (who is Saudi) precisely because, as his name suggests, he is a local.

So JFS might just be a re-brand but it's more than purely cosmetic.

Fitz
Revealed: Russia's 'Secret Syria Mercenaries'

Sky News speaks to men who claim they were trained and flown on Russian military planes to assist troops loyal to Bashar al Assad.

07:58, UK, Wednesday 10 August 2016

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Video: Exclusive Report On Russia's Secret Mercenaries

By John Sparks, Moscow Correspondent

If Russia is a nation at war, the Kremlin has always been careful to frame its campaign in Syria as an aerial operation.

Other than a limited number of 'instructors and military advisers', Russian officials have repeatedly stated that they do not need to put 'boots on the ground'.

The Russian narrative of low-cost conflict has been seriously challenged however by a group of young Russian men who claim that their country's involvement in Syria is far more extensive - and more costly - than anyone in President Putin's administration is prepared to admit.

These individuals told Sky News that they were recruited by a highly secretive private military company called 'Wagner' and flown to Syria aboard Russian military transport planes.

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One of the former mercenaries who claims he was trained and sent to fight in Syria

For the equivalent of £3,000 a month, they say they were thrown into pitch battles and firefights with rebel factions - including Islamic State.

Two of the group, Alexander and Dmitry, told Sky News they felt lucky to be alive.

"It's 50-50," said Alexander (not his real name). "Most people who go there for the money end up dead. Those who fight for ideals, to fight against the Americans, American special-forces, some ideology - they have a better chance of survival."

"Approximately 500 to 600 people have died there," claimed Dmitry. "No one will ever find out about them…. that's the scariest thing. No one will ever know."

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Russian mercenaries are alleged to have fought in eastern Ukraine

The country's Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, warned in February that the deployment of ground troops by foreign powers could result in a "world war".

He seems to have excluded the use of Russian mercenaries from that calculation, however - although analysts are not surprised.

The deployment of military contractors is consistent with the Russian take on 'hybrid-war', according to military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer.

He said: "Obviously (Wagner) does exist. These kind of 'volunteers' do appear in different war zones, where the Russian government wants them to appear. So first in Crimea, then in Donbass, now in Syria. But they have not been legalised up till now."

Private military companies are banned under the Russian constitution - but that is not something that seems to trouble the man who runs the operation.

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The only known image of the shadowy head of Wagner Nikolai Utkin. Pic: Fontanka

A former special forces soldier, he is known to his men as Nikolai Utkin.

The only known picture of Mr Utkin was published earlier this year by St Petersburg-based newspaper 'Fontanka'.

The paper described him as an aficionado of the aesthetics and ideology of the Nazi German Third Reich.

His nom-de-guerre - Wagner - is thought to be a tribute to Hitler's favourite composer.

The company has recruited hundreds of men online, by posting temporary advertisements in military-themed chat rooms on one popular Russian website.

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The men say they were taken from Russia to Syria on Russian military aircraft

Sky News obtained a record of a conversation between one recruit and a Wagner agent. It read:

Recruit: I heard that Wagner is looking for guys. I was in the army in ….. division.

Wagner: What sort of physical shape are you in?

Recruit: I can run 10km. I can do 20 chin ups.

Wagner: Can you do 3km in 13 minutes?

Recruit: For sure! In the army I was doing 11km in 40 minutes.

Wagner: Do you have any problems with the law, debts?

Recruit: I have a problem with money. I want to buy an apartment.

Wagner: Do you have a valid passport for travelling?

Recruit: Yes, sure.

Wagner: Ok, come to Molkino. You have a high chance of being selected.

Molkino is a small village in southern Russia that is home to a Ministry of Defence special forces base. Part of the base has been handed over to Wagner for the selection and training of recruits.

Alexander, who has conducted a number of missions to Syria, said he was aware of men of all abilities being accepted for training - even those who had never fired a gun.

He said the training - which generally lasts from one to two months - was intense.

He added: "If the person hasn't been the army, he is trained from level zero. They're taught to be infantrymen - the usual cannon fodder. If the person has served in the artillery, reconnaissance, assault brigades - his skills are polished…. they teach you how to drive and use absolutely all the equipment they have."

Dmitry said recruits were given 'NATO-standard' kit to practise with.

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Some of the men Sky News spoke to say they took part in the battle for Palmyra

Both men soon found themselves deployed to the main Russian base on the Syrian coast.

Alexander said he was joined by more than 500 men.

"There were 564 soldiers with me and we were put up at the base," he added. "We had two reconnaissance companies, one air defence company, two assault groups and foot troops, plus heavy artillery, tanks and so on."

Dmitry said he was joined by 900 others - but had second thoughts on arrival.

He previously worked as an office secretary and had little military experience.

"We arrived at night at the airport," he said. "What is it called? Hmay? Hymeem?

Hhmemeen? (Khmeimim). Then we were put in trucks. To be honest I was scared. I don't have a strong build and I wasn't very good at the drills."

The Wagner fighters accused their commanders of sending them on 'suicide missions' designed to 'soften-up' the opposition before Syrian Army troops were sent in.

Alexander recounted the battle for the city of Palmyra, conducted earlier this year.

He said: "During the storming of Palmyra, we were used as cannon fodder. You could say that. Reconnaissance went forward first so they could observe and report. I knew three in that group - two died before they got to the city. From my assault company, 18 died. After us, those chickens from Assad's army followed and finished the job but we did most of the work."

The official number of Russians killed in Syria stands at 19. However, the Wagner fighters told Sky News they believed hundreds of their fellow employees have been killed.

They accuse the authorities of covering it up.

"Who will ever tell you about this? Sometimes the bodies are cremated but the papers say 'they're missing'. Sometimes the documents say the soldier was killed in Donbass (eastern Ukraine). Sometimes they say 'car accident' and so on," claimed Alexander.

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Photos apparently captured by IS fighters appear to show Russian mercenaries

Dmitry claimed hundreds of men have been left in Syria.

"Sometimes they are buried, sometimes they are not," he said. "Sometimes they just dig a hole. It depends on how the commanders feel towards the person."

He is back in Moscow now but says the experience still stalks him. When he signed on with Wagner, Dmitry handed over his personal identification papers - an essential part of life in Russia. Upon his return, he went back to the training base to retrieve his documents but found himself arrested by police. An officer told him, unequivocally, that Wagner "does not exist".

Dmitry told Sky News that there are 50 other men - Wagner survivors - now walking the streets of Moscow, traumatised and without papers.

"No one knows me," he said. "They just threw me away."
Local Daimyo

Head propagandist and religious authority of Jaish al Fatah, the main non-ISIS jihadi rebel coalition in Syria, speaks upon the success of the rebel offensive to break the siege of Aleppo.
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/BghG8UtNPUI

Skip to about 3:20 to hear him speak, he's the guy in the camo.
Ask yourself, are there any Western political figures who can make a speech like this? The answer is no. That's a problem.