The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Fitz
Common ATGMs in the Syrian Civil War

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This report will deal with Anti-Tank Guided Missiles [ATGMs] seen in the Syrian Civil War that are used by ATGM crews. Therefore I will not focus on other types of ATGMs that have been launched from vehicles such as the Shmel [AT-1 Snapper], Svir [AT-11 Sniper], Bastion [AT-8 Songster], Hot-1, etc. I will list the ATGMs used in the conflict in order of precedence in relation to how common they are used, with a brief section at the end elaborating upon rare ATGMs which have also been spotted.

BGM-71 TOW
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FSA Southern Front Alwiyat Saif al-Sham setting up a TOW ATGM before a strike on a tank in the Triangle of Death June 2016

The TOW missile launcher is now a recognizable sight to anyone following the Syrian conflict, and this foreign supplied missile of US origin accounts for most Syrian Opposition ATGM strikes. Representatives of the Assad regime have even admitted the effectiveness of this weapon, with a Syrian military source telling Reuters in November 2015 that TOWs “were having an impact on the battlefield” . I have discussed which factions use these missiles in a prior report; here I shall give a few lesser known details on how this weapon is used.



TOW ATGMs have proven extremely effective against large groups of infantry, with highly unprofessional Shia sectarian regime militias tending to cluster up on front-lines

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FSA Furqat Usud al-Sunna with a pickup mounted TOW ATGM



Fagot
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The rivet at the front of the Fagot missile [circled in red] that might be helpful to those attempting to distinguish this ATGM from the very similar Konkurs

As of 2016, there is a known Fagot ATGM program running parallel to the well known TOW program to provide these weapons to Syrian Opposition factions. The US Department of Defense’s Special Operations Command [SOCOM] has since December 2015 commissioned three cargo ships to transport 4,700 tons of arms and ammunition including ATGMs from the ports of Constanta in Romania and Burgas in Bulgaria to the Middle East , with the likely intended final destination of these arms being the Syrian Opposition. The specific type of Fagot was the 9K111M Faktoria, an Eastern Europe produced improved version of the 9K111 Fagot featuring a tandem warhead to penetrate Explosive Reactive Armor [ERA], of which the cargo contained some 2,720 kg of Fagot ATGM related freight .

A FSA Army of Victory spokesperson has stated that countries friendly to the Syrian Revolution sent Fagot launchers to enable the Syrian Opposition to utilize large amounts of these ATGMs that had been captured from regime stockpiles as well as night vision components . Abu Omar TOW, a FSA ATGM gunner, stated that the Fagot is lightweight compared to the TOW and can be carried on the shoulder or on a motorcycle, making it a more mobile weapon system compared to the TOW which requires a car to move from base.

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Fagot ATGM diagram from a Soviet field-manual
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Fagot ATGM Apparatus Block diagram from a Soviet field-manual

Konkurs
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The subtle bulge at the back of the Konkurs missile [circled in red] is generally the only visible identifying characteristic other than the label, and is easy to miss from certain angles [ screenshot source ]

The Konkurs ATGM is slightly less frequent than the Fagot, yet still very commonly used both among the Syrian Opposition and the forces of the Assad regime — it is often mistaken for the Fagot due to its almost identical appearance, with only a few subtle identifying features. This is further complicated by the fact that the Fagot and Konkurs ATGMs use the same launcher. Essentially an upgraded version of the original Fagot, it was rumored that several dozen 9M113 Konkurs ATGMs were received by the Opposition from foreign backers in the Summer of 2013 .





Kornet
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Sham Legion showing a TOW launcher and Kornet launcher side by side in Aleppo from July 2016

The Kornet ATGM was once a fairly rare sight on the battlefield of Syria, yet has become extremely common in the last few months. This is due to Sham Legion going on a number of mass Kornet strike sprees against regime targets in the Aleppo region, a sign that they are likely being supplied with these advanced ATGMs from a foreign backer. The Kornet is notable for being the only commonly used SCALOS laser beam guided ATGM system in the conflict, which means the missile is not guided by a trail of thin wire which is the system used by all other ATGMs in the Syrian Civil War. The Kornet also likely has the greatest range of all ATGMs in the Syrian Civil War, and this has been utilized to make several remarkably long distance strikes on totally unsuspecting regime targets. The Kornet has been know to take out the M1 Abrams MBT in Iraq , and is therefore more than capable of dealing with any of the aging Soviet armor of the Assad regime’s forces. An interesting aspect and possible exception is the T-90; Kornet ATGMs have not yet been launched against one of the T-90 MBTs that have been gifted by the Russian Federation to the regime and various seemingly random Shia militia, and therefore it is unclear whether the tank’s “Shtora” defense system— complete with infrared emitters —would work against this laser beam guided ATGM where it has failed multiple times against the wire-guided TOW.



Ahrar al-Sham is the only other Opposition faction to make use of large numbers of Kornets of late

Malyutka
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FSA Southern Front Alwiyat Saif al-Sham Malyutka ATGM launched from a BMP in operations against ISIS affiliates, Daraa May 2016

The Malyutka is the oldest commonly used ATGM in the Syrian Civil War with it having first entered service over half a century ago in 1963, and on first impression you could be forgiven for believing that it is obsolete. However the “little one” has proven itself again and again, taking out infantry, BMPs, and tanks in the course of the conflict. Although this ATGM doesn’t appear to have been supplied to the Syrian Opposition, very large quantities are often captured from regime stockpiles, with tens and even hundreds of crates containing theses ATGMs appearing in ghanima videos.




HJ-8
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The Banner of the Glories of Islam [‫لواء أمجاد الإسلام‬‎], a defunct faction from Aleppo, launching a HJ-8 against a regime target [date unclear]

The Chinese HJ-8 has emerged in the Syrian Civil War as an unexpectedly powerful ATGM. The Hongjian-8 [Red Arrow-8]has been described as having “ the range of the TOW-II, but portability approaching the Milan ”. By December 2013, 100 Chinese HJ-8 anti-tank missiles had been received by Opposition forces from across the border with Jordan , presumably from foreign backers. The HJ-8 is said to have a range of 4,000 m to 6,000 m , with the latter estimate being either very optimistic or based on some improved non-export version of the ATGM. The HJ-8 has been spotted in the service of the Syrian Opposition and also ISIS, and while not rare, it is certainly far less common than the ATGM types listed so far.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/oTdECjA6HsU

Al Rahman Corps HJ-8 ATGM strike in Eastern Ghouta December 2015

Metis/Metis-M
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A Metis launcher captured as ghanima recently from the regime by Ahrar al-Sham in the Great Battle to Break the Siege of Aleppo

The Metis and Metis-M occupy confusing places in the Russian ATGM landscape, with no apparent advantage over the more popular Fagot/Konkurs/Kornet ATGM systems. It has poor range and generally has sporadic appearances among various factions with no real pattern. According the UN documents, Bulgaria transferred eight 9K115 Metis ATGM systems to the US in 2014 , with the purpose of being given to the Syrian Opposition.



MILAN
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Sham Legion MILAN ATGM crew on Hirbnafsah front Hama in images released 2016–07–28

MILANs have been used since the early Syrian Civil War, as Opposition forces were quickly able to secure these ATGMs from regime stockpiles. However, MILANs are considerably rarer than similar Russian ATGMs which have undergone very wide weapons proliferation among the Free Syria Army and associated factions. Much like the Metis, the MILAN is another modern ATGM commonly seen in the conflict that appears to have only been supplied in very limited quantities by foreign backers, with only evidence to suggest a few covert shipments of the MILAN and its variant versions . The MILAN is far more frequently seen in use by the Syrian Arab Army of the Assad regime and related militias such as the NDF in various parts of Syria.

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Sham Legion MILAN ATGM crew on Hirbnafsah front Hama in images released 2016–07–28

https://twitter.com/badly_xeroxed/status/758666669086666752

Rare ATGMs

Toophan
The Toophan has been spotted in Syria at least 6 times in the Aleppo region that I can recall, with only one piece of footage of a Toophan strike emerging recently from SANA [the Assad regime’s official propaganda outlet]. As can clearly be seen, this weapon is a reverse engineered version of the US TOW, and has inferior performance and specifications as a result. The distinguishing features are the darker green color scheme and bright yellow tripod bands, as well as different markings on the side of the launcher. The Toophan seems to have been captured and used by ISIS on at least one occasion in Iraq.


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A Toophan ATGM seen in South Aleppo, late 2015

https://twitter.com/badly_xeroxed/status/750048814497665024

HJ-73C and I-RAAD-T
The Hj-73C is the Chinese version of the Russian Malyutka, and the I-RAAD-T is the Iranian version of the same ATGM. These ATGMs are so rarely seen that there seems little point in discussing them separately, so I shall simply provide an image and some footage of both as evidence they have been used [or at least exist] in the conflict.

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Al-Tawhid Brigade member carrying a I-RAAD-T ATGM in Aleppo, the old version of their logo suggests this was some time ago [date unclear]

https://youtu.be/kXH31cV8JNo

FSA Southern Front Syria Revolutionaries Front HJ-73C ATGM strike on ISIS affiliates , Daraa May 2016

Saegheh
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Probable Saegheh appearing in a Hezbollah propaganda video regarding the 2006 Lebanon War with Israel

Much like the Toophan and its relationship to the TOW, the Saegheh is an Iranian knock-off of the US M47 Dragon, and a further example of US weapons being reverse engineered and proliferating to terrorist organizations under the auspices of the Islamic Republic of Iran — the US had previously provided these weapons to Iran under the Shah prior to 1979, when Iran was a friendly nation. The Saegheh has been spotted in Lebanon and Iraq but not Syria, yet it is likely it will make an appearance in the conflict at some point. Eliot Higgins posted in February 2013 alleged images and footage of the remnants of a M47 Dragon ATGM from Homs, although again, an Iranian source for this weapon is far more likely than any other explanation.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/733346617269583872

Javelin
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Western Special Forces embedded with the YPG [Syrian PKK affiliate] using a FGM-148 Javelin in Northern Syria, the only known use of this weapon

Thanks to @MinsterTX for his excellent article in Spanish “ Tipos de misiles guiados antitanque en Siria (Capítulo/serie 2.1) ” as well as @AbraxasSpa , @bm21_grad and @MathieuMorant for their help with certain key details of this report.
Fitz
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Local Daimyo


Houthis successfully used a guided anti ship missile to sink the HSV-2, a US Navy prototype of a high speed stealth cargo delivery/amphibious warfare vessel that was sold to the UAE Navy a few years ago.

The vessel was making a supply run delivering to GCC-friendly Yemeni forces on the coast of the Bab al Mandeb but the Houthis hit it and got some incredible video of the ship's cargo cooking off and blowing up.

This isn't the first time that the Houthis have verified a hit on a ship in the Bab al Mandeb one of the world's most important waterways, but this is the first confirmed kill; and it was a high profile kill at that.

EDIT: I'm now seeing reports that the Houthis also sent small boats across the Red Sea and did an amphibious attack/sea-borne mortar barrage on the UAE airbase at Assab in Eritrea

What an incredibly bold and inventive move! HOUTHI POWER
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article60311
Welund
http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-mossad-other-foreign-agents-killed-in-aleppo-strike/

Russia: Mossad, other foreign agents killed in Aleppo strike
Citing ‘battlefield sources,’ state media says its warships bombed 30 officers from Israel, Qatar and Western countries
BY JUDAH ARI GROSS September 22, 2016, 7:21 pm

Russian state media reported that Israeli Mossad agents and other foreign military officers were killed in Aleppo on Tuesday in a Russian missile strike.

According to the Arabic-language version of Russia’s Sputnik news agency, some “30 Israeli and Western officers” died when they were hit by three Kalibr cruise missiles fired by Russian warships in a “foreign officers’ coordination operations room” in western Aleppo, near Mount Simeon.

In addition to the Mossad agents, the Russian report claimed, military officials from the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and Turkey — virtually every country hated by Iran, Syria and Russia — were killed in the strike, according to “battlefield sources.”

The foreign officers were “directing the terrorists’ attacks in Aleppo and Idlib,” the Iranian Fars news reported, referring to the rebel groups that control the Syrian cities.

The Israeli government did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

More than 300,000 people have been killed since Syria’s conflict erupted in March 2011 with protests calling for the ouster of President Bashar Assad.

There was meant to be a halt to the fighting around Aleppo, beginning on September 13. Despite several alleged breaches, the truce had led to calm in the city, and last week, the Syrian army announced that it would observe a freeze on fighting until midnight on September 19.

Once the Arab country’s largest city, Aleppo has been a horrific battleground since 2012, divided between government- and rebel-held areas. Over the summer, the 250,000 people living in the opposition districts endured more than 40 days under complete blockade after government forces captured all roads out of the area.

Rebel reinforcements broke a hole in the blockade in August. But in heavy bombardment over the following weeks, more than 700 civilians were killed. Syrian troops backed by Russian airstrikes retook the roads and clamped the siege back on. Then the truce came into effect, sealing both sides’ positions in place.

News agencies contributed to this report.
Fitz

major general suheil al hassan, commander of assad's tiger(pink panther) forces.

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Draugen
Local Daimyo
This story seems like the sort of straight up fabrication that Fars occasionally publishes
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