The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Local Daimyo
https://www.youtube.com/embed/s1uyh1D52gA

Here's a video of a cluster**** of Iraqi Hummers and a dozer trying to enter a village on the edges of Falluja.

IS drives them off with some machine gun fire. Great video of just how shitty the Iraqi Army really is.
Fitz

civilians in manbij flocking to join isis to stop the SDF/YPG advance -

Amadis
Fyrdsman
That was gold, couldn't make it past the zipline scene.

I did notice how the entire unit was equipped with vz. 58s as opposed to an AK variant. Interesting. Do you know where this was filmed?
Amadis

Looking at some of their other videos, I think they are based around (the north of) Hama, but I'm not an FSA expert.

Local Daimyo
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/R6axTxU30yo

Very good Vice News embed with the Iraqi Army's Golden Division as they pushed on Hit in Anbar province earlier this year. This is quite a good documentary, you can see both some pretty heavy combat and the fascinating scenes of the unit's commander interrogation locals and tribal elders and questioning all the men in a village together in public to figure out who cooperated with IS. Golden Division is definitely one of the most competent and experienced units in the Iraqi Army. All these guys are hardened veterans.
Amadis

Excellent doco. Lots of takeaways:

  • The PMUs are sometimes effective but also often criminal and sectarian; taking Mosul will probably lead to a fight between the militias.
  • The Iraqi Army doesn't even appear (and is broadly rubbish); instead ISOF, built for JSOC's kill/capture raids, are being used as line infantry.
  • ISOF are reliable and hardcore but horribly over-stretched (the commander with 10+ years got wounded recently).
  • Iraqi society remains divided and scarred; the post-combat political process is just as important as the fight.
  • Islamic State keep fighting after every loss; even if they lose Mosul they will simply return to the desert and plan yet another comeback (2010, baby).
  • No Western army could do what ISOF do, due to lawfare; those effective village interrogations would be lead to all sorts of legal issues.
Local Daimyo
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/KtS8B_DBTvQ

Pretty incredible video here from semi-celebrity rebel propagandist Hadi Abdallah. He's embedded with a Nusra/Faylaq Al Sham assault force of several tanks, BMPs, Humvees and infantry as they charge across no man's land to attack the Iraqi Shia militias in the village of Qarassi just south of Aleppo, earlier this week, under intermittent fire from artillery.
Local Daimyo
Source
Right now, I rate the likelihood of US bombing on Assad very low. However, every new presidency comes with an energetic new boost of foreign policy initiatives. Therefore there is a real chance that Ms. Flournoy gets to prove that feminism is true by goading Russia to start WW3.

If that doesn't happen I'm almost certain that there will be a new Israel-Hezbollah war on the Lebanese border sometime after the election, regardless of who wins.

Also: please note that the Southern Front, the group Ms. Flournoy wants to go to war to support, usually works with Jabhat al Nusra when attacking Assad's forces.
Fitz
West cooperating secretly with Damascus against militants -Assad

AMMAN, June 30 (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al Assad said in an interview to be broadcast on Friday that Western countries had sent security officials to help his government covertly in fighting Islamist militants involved in Syria's war.

Assad, in remarks to Australia's SBS News channel that were carried by Syrian state media, said Western states - who are strongly opposed to his rule but also face the threat of Islamist attacks at home - were secretly cooperating with his government in counter-terrorism operations.

"They attack us politically and then they send officials to deal with us under the table, especially the security, including your [the Australian] government," Assad was quoted as saying.

"They don't want to upset the United States. Actually most of the Western officials, they only repeat what the United States want them to say. This is the reality," he said.

There was no immediate comment from Western governments.

Western powers have supported rebels fighting to overthrow Assad in a civil war now in its sixth year, and have called for him to step down to ease a future democratic transition. He has refused, vowing to fight on until Damascus regains control of all of Syria. His main allies have been Russia and Iran.

Among Assad's foes in the conflict are Islamist militant groups with which radicalised European Muslims have trained and taken part in fighting before, in some cases, returning to Europe to carry out attacks. (Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/VynWkRJPoeY