The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Local Daimyo
Either Syria will end up defacto separated like Bosnia was, or Iran will manage and subsidize the importation of large numbers of Iraqi and Lebanese Shia Arabs into the rebellious Sunni areas that have been significantly depopulated by the war.

Iran seeks to create a client state within-a-state in Syria, on the model of Hezbollah's zone in Lebanon by building a network of militias with their own, direct relationships to Tehran, thus eroding the sovereignty of the Syrian state.

There is a strong possibility that at the end of this war, we will be faced with a triumphant Iranian-led Shia axis from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut, controlling it all. Arab manpower and Persian leadership, with loyal Sunni Arab auxiliaries. This is Israel's greatest strategic nightmare.
Local Daimyo

<blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING VIDEO<br>Rebels fired mortars landed on a Church in the village of Al-Suqaylabiyah during Palm Sunday mass <a href=" https://t.co/jnOTjkgBRs ">pic.twitter.com/jnOTjkgBRs</a></p>&mdash; Bassem (@BBassem7) <a href=" ">April 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Pretty amazing video of Orthodox Christians in the Hama town of Suqalabiyah, not far from the front line, celebrating Palm Sunday under artillery fire. As shells land, they don't stop the hymns. God will reward such solid faith.

Niccolo and Donkey
Local Daimyo

To answer your previous comment, both sides (pro and anti government) are seriously lacking manpower but what has impressed me on the Assad side is the sheer number of Sunnis still backing the regime and fighting for it.

Should they actually win the war they will be able to reimpose rule over most of Syria with the exceptions of the Kurdish lands and certain pockets in Idlib as well as Daraa and along the Lebanese border where support for the government has all but evaporated.
Welund

I wish I could see an ethnic/ethnoreligious breakdown of it all.

Local Daimyo

Today is the second day of continued clashes between KRG peshmerga and Shia militias loyal to Baghdad in the northern Iraqi city of Tuz Khutmatu, a majority Turkmen town. See: article
The link says 10 dead but it's likely more than that

The Hashd al Shaabi & peshmerga clashed in Tuz several months ago after they tried to arrest each other's commanders for various "crimes". I thought they would at least have the decency to wait until after the Mosul campaign to tear into each other again but I guess I was wrong.

This leaves the planning for a move against IS in Mosul effectively dead in the water; the Iraqi Army will need logistical and possibly combat support from the peshmerga to launch an attack on Mosul and that is likely off the table at this point. The KRG won't want to help remove ISIS from their border if they're just going to be replaced by a stronger enemy, and they sure won't let the Hashd establish a big base right next to the KRG border under the excuse of attacking Mosul.

Combined with the Iraqi Army's failed probing attack at Makhmour a few weeks ago, this means that any move against Mosul is off the table for the foreseeable future.

Washington seems unable to build a proxy coalition that won't immediately descend into internecine warfare

Amadis
Local Daimyo
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/aM3ElTvF52I

Headcam footage from ISIS fighters in Iraq captures the last few minutes of their lives. Saying goodbye to their suicide bomber friend and then mounting a totally hopeless frontal attack against the peshmerga's frontline in 3 DIY armored vehicles. At the beginning they're foolhardy but brave, in the middle they're three stooges, and at the end they're very dead.
President Camacho
Good post, although I tend to doubt the notion that Hezbollah, the Syrian Alawite/Shia militias, or the Iraqi Gov't are genuinely Iranian puppets-- I think each of those actors have more sovereignty than some realize...

But yes, this is indeed the nightmare scenario for Israel. Then imagine combined with a Trump presidency, assuming he doesn't subsidize the Syrian rebels...
Local Daimyo

Islamic State launched a local offensive on the E Homs desert front that recaptured the Shaer gas field.

See: pics and description of what they captured.

In addition to taking ground and the lucrative natural gas wells/processing facility, they also captured several tanks, BMP-1s, as well as a few artillery pieces, a significant amount of artillery shells, a few guided anti-tank missiles, as well as, presumably, a large amount of small arms ammunition.

Although there are no pictures, they claim to have captured a significantly larger haul.

These local offensives out of the desert against the SAA and NDF are now undoubtedly one of the principle sources of supply for the Islamic State. In the last 6 months, just off the top of my head:

These raids target the E Homs desert front because it is the lowest priority for the SAA/Iranian/Russian axis. The great length of the front and large number of isolated locations where IS can concentrate and strike make it favorable compared to other zones of the country. There are many pre-war Syrian arms depots on the desert front, and the whole front tends to be guarded by lower quality SSA/NDF units and lower-tier Iraqi Shia militia units. Thus IS is using its diminishing power quite wisely, to make quick attacks against the weakest enemies it faces in order to maximize ratio of captured weapons/supplies to casualties. At this point, battlefield captures from the SAA/NDF are probably the biggest single source of weapons and supplies that IS has.
Shaer is particularly interesting for them because it may produce usable petrochemicals. Earlier in the war, the Shaer gas field was actually producing revenue for IS, via the expertise of workers who were stranded there when the government forces were driven out, but at this point I suspect it is too contested, damaged and lacking in trained employees to actually become a meaningful revenue generator for IS again.
President Camacho

Any word on whether these ISIS units had access to the TOW missiles & other advanced weapons US sent over during the cease-fire?