The Syria Analysis Thread

Stubby Saturday 1 Mar 2014

Think I know what it is, these two are both Armenians, that'd be their connection there. There's a story they got deported and are now fighting for Assad, but it's not 100%.

https://www.facebook.com/nerses.kilajyan/photos

SweetLeftFoot Monday 3 Mar 2014

They shoot like gangbangers.

Schmeisser Wednesday 5 Mar 2014

Abu Khalid was outspoken against fighting ISIS.

Considering that "sahwa" is a curse word among jihadists, the remark would only be threatening if Nusra assumed that they were part of the sahwa.

Oh btw, czech this out:
"Twitter is where the radically changing face of online jihadism is really taking place."
http://www.vice.com/read/how-jihadists-use-the-internet

Stubby Wednesday 5 Mar 2014

Regardless of who they were referring to (I think at the least they were referring to Suqor al Sham/Ahrar al Sham), if someone yells "faggot" in my direction, I'll turn my head even though I'm not gay. Also Jolani and Zawahiri were against fighting ISIS, at least at first, so ISIS is still the likely suspect. Who else would have cause to kill him, in that manner in particular, besides Assad and company? Obviously this proves nothing, but I can't even find anything online suggesting that ISIS didn't do it, besides the denial they issued.

And thank you, I've used shami witness as a jumping off point to read more of what these ISIS/JaN/IF guys are saying, but the lack of a good translator for Arabic makes it difficult. What I do see is a good amount of bickering.

Stubby Friday 7 Mar 2014

In another split among Chechen jihadists in Syria, at least one member of the jamaat (group) formerly led by Chechen jihadi Sayfullakh Shishani (pictured) — the commander killed last month in the insurgent attack on Aleppo Central Prison — has said he is leaving to join another jamaat, Jund al-Aqsa.

Jund al-Aqsa is predominantly made up of foreign fighters from Arab countries.

Sayfullakh swore allegiance to Jabhat al-Nusra in December, and moved his predominantly Chechen faction, Jundu Sham, to fight with that group.
One fighter leaving Sayfullakh’s jamaat said he doing so because he is opposed to conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham, which has been in a battle with Syrian insurgents since January. The fighter says he personally has not sworn allegiance to any group, even though Sayfullakh himself swore allegiance to Jabhat al-Nusra leader al-Jolani.
The fighter writes (in bad Russian):
My good-natured and friendly attitude is taken here for a weakness
I have put up with the Jahiliyya movement even when they spoke in a rude tone or simply ordered me about.
But I endured for the sake of Allah, and further suffer.
This is not Chechnya and they’re not running around in the mountains, here Satan is specifically working and the brotherhood is very weak and there is fitna, that brotherhood that I imagined is not here at all.
I do not want to be among the Muhajir and that’s why I’m going to the Ansar.
I hope I will find there true brotherhood, and all those who are calling me spoke about the brotherhood of Jund al-Aqsa .
I do not want to participate in the fitna or to hear about it at all.
I want to be useful to religion and to fight against Bashar.

He later added:
In general the reason is the fitna between Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS and I do not want to be in either one of them, I’d rather be fighting in Damascus and (against) Bashar.
The new leader of Sayfullakh’s jamaat is a Chechen, Mohammad Khorasany.

Angocachi Friday 7 Mar 2014

Private Jihad financiers, wealthy Arabs in the GCC, are beginning to splinter and squabble over the ISIS split from AQ. Many are expressing the same sentiment as the Chechen in Stubby's post, that is; why waste their money for Salafi-on-Salafi fighting. Groups that promise to bring the fight back to Assad are looking very attractive. This hurts Zawahiri and Al Nusra because they have historically drawn a large chunk of their budget from generous sympathetics, even recruits are sent their way by rich Arab dissidents. The Islamic Front gets its money from the Saudi state and its fighters are primarily Syrian. The ISIS makes its own money in a dozen different enterprises, and can recruit by itself.
Zawahiri is losing in Syria unless he can get back into the war against Assad. Not to mention he's been shunned in several Jihadi fronts by local AQ who admire the ISIS and blame Nusra for not folding itself into a Mashriqi Emirate.
Scheuer made it clear in his OBL biography that Zawahiri was never the brains behind AQ and that he was often dangerously wrong on several points before OBL set him straight. With OBL gone, Zawahiri the theoretician is fumbling about. He could always see the destination but he could never see how to get there. He's not a leader and he's taking AQ into the dirt.
The best thing that can happen for AQ is for Al Nusra and the IF to get worn down fighting Assad to the West and ISIS to the East. ISIS can not be eliminated as long as they have sanctuary in Sunni Iraq. If they outlast the other Salafi Jihadists in Syria, AQ's global branches will hang up the phone on Zawahiri. With such an international mutiny he'll lose his Gulf Arab backers and the Pakistanis will immediatly permit the US to end his house arrest as they did OBL.

Stubby Friday 7 Mar 2014

Angocachi said: ↑

Private Jihad financiers, wealthy Arabs in the GCC, are beginning to splinter and squabble over the ISIS split from AQ. Many are expressing the same sentiment as the Chechen in Stubby's post, that is; why waste their money for Salafi-on-Salafi fighting. Groups that promise to bring the fight back to Assad are looking very attractive. This hurts Zawahiri and Al Nusra because they have historically drawn a large chunk of their budget from generous sympathetics, even recruits are sent their way by rich Arab dissidents. The Islamic Front gets its money from the Saudi state and its fighters are primarily Syrian. The ISIS makes its own money in a dozen different enterprises, and can recruit by itself.
Zawahiri is losing in Syria unless he can get back into the war against Assad. Not to mention he's been shunned in several Jihadi fronts by local AQ who admire the ISIS and blame Nusra for not folding itself into a Mashriqi Emirate.
Scheuer made it clear in his OBL biography that Zawahiri was never the brains behind AQ and that he was often dangerously wrong on several points before OBL set him straight. With OBL gone, Zawahiri the theoretician is fumbling about. He could always see the destination but he could never see how to get there. He's not a leader and he's taking AQ into the dirt.
The best thing that can happen for AQ is for Al Nusra and the IF to get worn down fighting Assad to the West and ISIS to the East. ISIS can not be eliminated as long as they have sanctuary in Sunni Iraq. If they outlast the other Salafi Jihadists in Syria, AQ's global branches will hang up the phone on Zawahiri. With such an international mutiny he'll lose his Gulf Arab backers and the Pakistanis will immediatly permit the US to end his house arrest as they did OBL.

??? Everything I've seen and heard indicates that JaN and the IF are the two most active groups fighting against Assad, which has contributed to them being favored over ISIS. They've also made a number of statements regarding this, and tried to give that impression, that the first goal of the mujahideen should be to fight against Assad.

Angocachi Friday 7 Mar 2014

Who favors IF and Nusra over ISIS?
Only Saud favors the IF and only Zawahiri favors Nusra.
Saud favors the IF because it is not anti-Saud and doesn't seek to establish a Shariah State.
Zawahiri favors Nusra because it has followed his orders regarding public relations.
ISIS is beloved by many Jihadists and financiers for being quick and thorough in establishing a Shariah State and aggressively attacking Shia in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon... precisely what Zawahiri and Saud don't want. Furthermore it is composed of veterans who fought against the US military in Iraq.
Though I suppose it's true that many Sunni Syrian locals and other rebels favor Nusra because it complies with whatever they ask and enforces nothing, ie Zawahiri's policy.

Are you of the opinion that ISIS and Assad have an agreement?
If so it's a massive betrayal on Assad's part of Hezbollah and Maliki, who have and continue to fight for Assad all the while come under deadly attack by the ISIS.

Can you elaborate on why you've concluded that Nusra and IF are more active than ISIS in fighting Assad?

Reminder, perhaps off point, that the war on ISIS is a GCC, American, and Turkish backed campaign.

The United States and Gulf countries have been secretly backing efforts by opposition rebels to destroy al-Qaeda's most extreme wing in Syria , diplomats and rebels involved in the plan have told The Telegraph.
As Western leaders publicly push the Syrian regime and the opposition to the Geneva II peace conference that begins Wednesday Washington has also been quietly supporting moves by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to give weapons and cash to rebel groups to fight al-Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS) in Syria.
One source said the US was itself handing out millions of dollars to rebel groups best equipped to take on the extremists while another confirmed America was providing non-lethal aid.
The development marks a new phase in the conflict, with international backers working directly with rebel commanders to target al-Qaeda cells, who are seen as a major threat by Western intelligence agencies.
"Everyone is offering us funding to fight them," said one commander in a rebel group affiliated to the Western-backed Supreme Military Council. "We used to have no weapons with which to fight the regime, but now the stocks are full."

Note that these rebels had no Western backing when they were fighting Assad, but the funds and arms are plentifully given now that they're fighting the ISIS.
What was unique about ISIS as a rebel group but that they established an Islamic State? And why are Turkey, the GCC, and US more enthusiastic about crushing the ISIS than ousting Assad?

However, the Telegraph can reveal that in late December, a delegation including US and Saudi officials met in Turkey with senior rebel leaders.
According to two sources – one whose brother was at the meeting: "They talked about the fighting with ISIS, and the Americans encouraged the commanders to attack."
The Syrian Revolutionary Front, whose main commander, Jamal Maarouf, is allied to Saudi Arabia, and the Army of Islam, a new coalition of the moderate rebels sponsored by Qatar, have continued to liaise with the CIA and Saudi and Qatari intelligence, others close to meetings said.
These groups received a boost in arms supplies. According to a source who facilitates governments' lethal and non-lethal aid to Western-friendly groups: "Qatar sent arms first. Saudi Arabia didn't want to be out done, so one week before the attack on ISIS, they gave 80 tons of weaponry, including heavy machine guns".
A resident living close to bases for the Army of Islam and the Syrian Revolutionary Front in Syria's Idlib province said he had seen 15 trucks "filled with weapons going to the bases".
Washington did not directly give arms, he said, but backed Saudi Arabia in its funding of the groups. The United States has, however, also been giving $2 million in cash every month as an unofficial hand out, splitting that amount between western friendly rebel groups, the source added.
Senior commanders in both groups confirmed they had received some funds, but refused to say whether it was specifically for the purpose of attacking ISIS. They are wary of being compared to the so-called "Sunni Awakening" of 2006 in Iraq, when the US military encouraged former insurgents to rebel against their al-Qaeda allies , as many Islamist groups in Syria consider the term offensive.

They don't want to be called Sahwa, but that's exactly what they are.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-backs-rebels-to-fight-al-Qaeda-in-Syria.html

SweetLeftFoot Friday 7 Mar 2014

Ten more years of this thread?

http://www.news24.com/World/News/Syria-war-may-last-10-more-years-experts-20140307

Angocachi Friday 7 Mar 2014

Jews pissed that they can't oust an ally of Tehran, Moscow, and Hezbollah without a Salafist Shariah State springing up in his stead.
They wanted terribly to begin the aerial bombardments, the naval blockade, let the FSA roll into Damascus and install a regime of exiles. All they can do now is raise Sahwa, who're getting their asses devoured by Assad in the West because they're being paid to keep their guns trained on the ISIS to the East.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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