The Syria Analysis Thread

Yabroud appears to have fallen to Assad/Hezbollah, allegations of betrayal leveled by JaN against FSA units.

Will post good articles/pictures if I find them.

From BrownMoses, who's quoting Elijah J. Magnier

The battle of Yabrud is over but not the battle of Qalamoun. As written in previous reports (see here ), it took the attacking forces over a month to end the battle of Yabrud. Moreover, the nuns‘ exchange marked a turn in the battle when Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN) asked a free passage to 1500 fighters. The request was refused but corroborated intelligence information to attacking forces regarding the number of rebels left in the city. Today, JAN accuses other rebel groups for the fall of Yabrud, claiming these did not fight. Similar claim by rebels was also formulated when the fate of Qusseyr battle was marked. JAN was the leading force – but not the only one – in Yabrud. Obviously, the rebels do not fight under one command, neither as one man like the attacking forces.

The city of Yabrud was under heavy shelling by air, artillery and ground troops who used all sorts of weapons (see previous report ).

According to a reliable source within the attacking forces, “the Syrian Army offered logistic and fire support to Hezbollah fighters who launched a frontal simulated attack from Rima Farms and the west of Yabrud as a diversion. The real penetration of ground troops took place from the East, breaking the rebels defensive lines. By night fall, another penetration of forces advanced from West into the national hospital to meet the forces from the East in the city Centre were heavy fighting took place. Once the defensive line was broken, the rebels lost their will to continue fighting”.

“The attacking forces decided to launch repetitive attacks at night to limit the damage and casualties but also due to rebels’ lack of night vision equipment and rebels anti-tank missile (Kornet and others). Rebels relied on caves, hills and on the difficult topography of the area to slow down the attacking forces. The rebels were prepared for the battle since 4 months bringing in men and military supplies. Re-taking the hills first took most of the month and was not an easy task but a necessary move and an essential military tactic to ensure the protection of the attacking ground troops on the city. Hezbollah has lost most of his casualties in the mountains battle”, said the source.

The source explained “most of what was left from the remaining of the rebels fled Yabrud by night, leaving behind military hardware, as well as hundreds of bodies from different nationalities. These are Saudi, Kuwaiti, Tunisian, Egyptian, Moroccan, Iraqi, Lebanese and others. A small number of rebels have surrender”.

But this is not the end of the Qalamoun battle. Falita (West of Yabrud), Ras al-Ain (South of Yabrud) and Ras al-Maarra (South-West of Yabrud) all are on the main list of the next attack from the Qalamoun area. Rankus, around 80 km from Yabrud, maybe better attacked from Lebanon rather than Al-Qalamoun for its vicinity to the Lebanese-Syrian borders.

Many unconfirmed claims from cities in Qalamoun claiming a will to negotiate with the regime forces to spear the numerous cities south of Yabrud, including Maalula. It is clear that Hezbollah will not stop to celebrate its victory over Yabrud and will not take a break. The military operation will continue, taking advantage of the low moral of the rebels and their scattered men.

Moreover, the Qalamoun Mountains represent undoubtedly a future “military zone” for Hezbollah for its war against Israel. It is clear that Hezbollah, today, is no longer standing on 10452 sqm2 (the surface of Lebanon) but will be on additional 8000 sqm2, starting from Tal Kalakh, north of Quseyr to Zabadani, once the battle of Qalamoun is over.




If you continue just a little down that main road from Adra, you hit Damascus. I chose this map because of size, I don't know if those bases are still there, although they likely are.

If we were to ask anyone for a single proof regarding what they accuse us of and for which fight us against; they would not be able to do so. And they remain as false allegations and void accusations, lacking any proof or evidence, and not a single good characteristic is attributed to the Islamic State. It is pictured as if it were absolute evil, to the extent that no evil or calamity befalls in Iraq or Ash-Shām except that the State is responsible for it.

- If a house or neighborhood were attacked, they would say it is because of the State
- If a neighborhood or house were bombarded with shells, they would say it is because of the State
- If a women or a child were killed, they would say it is because of the State
- And if a graveyard were discovered, or a dead body was found, or someone was assassinated, they would say who else but the State
- And if someone were kidnapped, they would say cursed is the State
- If electricity were cut off or water was held back, they would say it is because of the State
- If the skies withheld the rain and the land became dry, they would say it is because of the State

How amazing are you O State. How amazing are you O State!

Everyone is fighting the state, and seeking hard to abolish it, and all are accusing the State of being in a state of enmity with everyone and wanting to fight everybody. By Allah O people, mention to us one group that we initiated fighting with before they initiated it. For we only deal with them with forbearance and patience against what they harm us with, but they do not fear the anger of the forbearer, and instead they step forth against us and start fighting us. Verily it is the Dīnār and the Dollar, it is blind jealousy and black envy.

And verily in each day we call out, "O people, keep away from us so that we may keep away from you, with no terms or conditions, without any plots or conspiracies."
So what is with you? Leave us be on our own against the Rāfiḍah, leave us be on our own against the Nuṣayris, leave us be on our own against the Crusaders, leave us be on our own against the Jews.

By Allah, if we were more extreme than the Azāriqah (the most extreme group of the Khawārij), it is required then upon those who call to Jihad, to stop attacking us so long as we are not attacking them, and we turned to (fight) the Rāfiḍah and the Nuṣayris. It is required upon the Ummah to support and assist us as long as we are fighting against the extremely transgressing enemy.

So how is it – and Allah is our witness – on how we deal severely with the Khawārij, whom are amongst the ranks of all the groups, since the time of the Prophet ﷺ, have you not heard what their grandfather said: "Be just O Muḥammad, for you have not been just". And the ones who we are aware of their presence, we hastily work on correcting their behavior, educating them and taking them by their hand or expelling them and excluding them from among our ranks. And we hereby invite all who accuse us of extremism; be it scholar or shaykh or preacher or judge, anywhere around the world, to all those in authority or leaders or soldiers in any group to every Muslim, to come to the areas controlled by the Islamic State, whether in Iraq or Ash-Shām, and walk around our localities, camps and institutions, and they may meet whomever they please from among our soldiers, leaders and commanders, so they can see and hear for themselves, ask, inspect and observe closely/investigate, and then judge us and be a witness of our ʿAqīdah and manhaj and I extend this invitation in particular to the soldiers of the groups.

So O you who desires Jihad in the path of Allah, be wary and be not deluded, that you might be averted from the path of Allah and fight the Mujāhidīn who fight in Allah’s path. And these are our doors open to you, so come and look by your own eyes, and judge by yourself, by Allah you will not find us except harsh against the extremists and the Khawārij, and indeed that is justice.

It is unjust that they make accusations of different crimes, accusations without any proof. And if you were to ask someone, how is it that they have come to this judgement? They would say, "Someone who is trustworthy has reported this to me." Subḥān Allah , even if that trustworthy person was an enemy to us and if you were to ask another one: what is your evidence that they are Khawārij? They would say, "They killed the Muslims." Subḥān Allah .
Verily the State is locked in a fierce war, rather numerous intense and ruinous wars, in Iraq and Ash-Shām, and verily our troops fight night and day, they are not separated from their weapons even when they are sleeping, and they enter into the towns and cities and they mingle with the people, and no group or army is void of ignorant people or those who make mistakes. And verily all of those from among the Muslims who were killed at the hands of the State - if such things occurred - then it is because of these types of people.

For the ignorant one kills because of his ignorance, and the one who errs kills because of his errors, and how many times did the Prophet ﷺ disassociate himself from the killing of individuals that were killed by the Ṣaḥābah (his Companions)? Add to that what the State has been accused of in regards to fighting of events that it is innocent of. So fear Allah in dealing with us and describing us as Khawārij for reasons such as these events.

Then what is wrong with people that overlook and forget all of the mistakes and crimes of the (other) groups, and their atrocities and ugly acts. They have closed their eyes and placed their fingers in their ears, they hid under their garments and muzzled their mouths, and they followed after the errors of the State and looked for its mistakes. They searched day and night with a microscope for an action or an incident to condemn or find fault in so that it may be exaggerated and magnified and dramatised,repeated and circulated, then that action into an attribute of the State and its manhaj and its religion.

So fear Allah in your dealing with us O servants of Allah!

O Allah, to You we complain of the oppression of the people upon us.

O Allah, they claim that the State refuses arbitration by the Law of God, what a derogatory claim that is!

Is the State fighting the West and the East, the black and the red, and is it struck by the swords except that it is to rule by the Law of God? Verily the Islamic State will not reject arbitration by the Law of God, and whoever refuses to refer to the Law of God has disbelieved. Verily these fools have made their initiatives as if they were the
Law of God, and whoever rejects them for any legitimate reason has rejected the Law of God! Glory be to you (O Allah), this is indeed a great falsehood!
Verily the State does not reject arbitration by the Law of God in any day, God forbid! It was subject to the common court and it was not rejected nor refused for even a day.

An example of this:

- The case of the killing of Abū ʿUbaydah Al-Binnishī and the case of the killing of Muhammad Fāris Al-Ḥalabī from Aḥrār - may Allah have Mercy upon them both - and the judge Abū ʿAbdul-Malik was from their side
- The case of the checkpoint of Liwā' At-Tawḥīd who took the area from the State, and the judge Ḥassan was from their side.
- The case of Liwā' At-Tawḥīd when they killed 2 from the State, and the judge Ḥassan was from their side.
- The case with Jabḥat Al-Jawlānī, when they killed ʿAṭiyyah Al-ʿAnzī, a Sharʿī with the State.
- A common court was also formed with Jabḥat Al-Jawlānī regarding the services of the Islamic administration.
- A court with Aḥrār Sūriyā in the case of a those accused of the attempted assassination of Abū Anas Al-ʿIrāqī, and the judge Maḥmūd Abū Mālik was from their side.

So none then should malign us, nor accuse us of saying that we only accept if we are the judge and the jury. No, but rather the people rejected the common court, and they came with deceit, conspiracy and intrigue, through it they made their initiatives as if they were the Law of God, and that rejecting it is rejecting the Law of God, and thus a brandished sword was thrust upon the State. Yes, it may be that the first ruling of such an independent court advocated by these initiatives would be the demand for the State to leave Ash-Shām - as stated by one of their elders on the satellite channels - and handing it over to the hyenas, foxes and wolves; to the traitors, the thieves and the betrayers, a matter which under it is breaking skulls, striking necks and the cutting open of the stomachs.

The people do not want but one thing - Denial of the existence of the Islamic State out of stubbornness and pride, and to see its fall and elimination. They had began to traverse the path of peaceful conspiracies and they thought that they would incite the people against the State, and divide the soldiers who were around it and they were incapacitated and they failed, so when they saw it strengthening and expanding they resorted to force and they thought that they would erase it in a few days or even a few hours, so they planned for a full-scale military campaign in all of Ash-Shām which they paved with a malicious and filthy media campaign to tarnish the image of the State and to pit the people against it. They mobilised their trumpets and utilised all of the satellite channels and then launched a campaign of treachery and betrayal, and so they were surprised to find that the State was tougher than they had expected and they were unable to break it. So they began pounding upon each other and blaming and complaining and crying... With the continuation of a campaign of lies, slander, backstabbing, distortion and defamation, which was summarised in a speech by the Sharʿī of Al-Jawlānī and a member of his shūrā, Abū ʿAbdullāh Ash-Shāmī, the liar whose speech I heard just one time and I counted from it approximately 40 lies.

Here I shall mention some of them to which I invite him to a mubāhalah* over, and he shall agree to this mubāhalah if he is truthful.

(*Note - A mubāhalah is when two parties both ask Allah to send His curse upon whichever of them is lying)

So O believers, be secure and invoke the curse of Allah upon the liars.

O Allah, verily Abū ʿAbdullāh Ash-Shāmī claimed about us:

- That we raised the affair to the Shaykh (Ayman) Adh-Dhawāhirī and that both parties were pleased with the judgment and the judge
- That the State is using lies and deceit to infer that its manhaj (methodology) is correct, and that it began a campaign that slandered and distorted the ʿAqīdah and manhaj of the leaders of Jihad
- That it began raids into Ash-Shām with a series of successive and intense attacks against the headquarters and warehouses of the Front (Jabḥat An-Nuṣrah) as well as its military camps
- That whenever anyone opposes it or advises it, that it works to overthrow it by all means
- That from its customs are treachery and betrayal
- That it breaks covenants and treaties
- That from its customs is making false oaths
- That it fools its soldiers to change them to be against Jabḥat An-Nuṣrah and to make them believe that JN is of the Ṣaḥawāt
- That the State repeatedly threatened Abū Khālid As-Sūrī
- That it refuses to submit to a Sharīʿah court
- That it declares disbelief upon some people upon hearing that they sat with a disbeliever
- He claimed that the State declares others as disbelievers based upon suspicions, conjecture and possibilities as well as what he calls Shinshinah (rumours, empty claims)
- That it ruled that all of those who opposed it are members of the Ṣaḥawāt
- That it placed snipers in Al-Raqqah and began to kill any Muslims that passed by
- That the Shaykh ʿUmar Ash-Shīshānī broke promises that he made with Abū Khālid As-Sūrī
- That the State views everyone that fights it has become a fighter of Islam (ie. may be fought) that has left the Millah (Ummah/Religion)
- That it declares disbelief based upon accessories, similarities, possibilities and conjecture
- That it tests people in regards to their beliefs and that it kills the people of Islam but leave the people of idolatry
- That from its attributes is Taqiyyah, breaking of promises, treachery, false oaths and debauchery
- That it refuses to obey and to submit to the Law of God
- That it began the aggression and oppression towards others
- That it is considered as the greatest obstacle in the path of Jihad and defence against the Nuṣayrī aggressors

O Allah, verily I testify to you that what I mentioned previously from what your servant Abū ʿAbdullāh Ash-Shāmī said are lies and slurs against the State, and that it is not from its manhaj nor from its beliefs, and neither does it intend to do any such things, rather it repudiates whoever does such things.

LONG POST. Amazing the change in tenor and style. All credit for this and the above post to Pieter van Ostaeyen, Iraqi Witness on twitter, and others. Here's what prompted the above response by ISIS, the original message from al Shami of JaN:

Peace and blessings upon he who said “Beware of extremism in religion for it has destroyed those that came before you.”

God aided in helping Mujahideen to expose secular projects to Muslims. all these projects aim to keep Muslims servile to the Crusaders. Just like God aided Mujahideen to expose calls to waiver our rights (Saudi scholars ). These need more devotion to be exposed to Muslims. And previous projects should be focused on by Mujahideen so that we they can expose its falseness to the nation. So that we can foil it.

What’s remaining is for the Mujahideen to warn people about the people of extremism and excess. As it presents a threat to the Jihad. We have in Algeria a good example, what sabotaged the Jihad there was extremism. And if you read history of Algeria you will understand why there was no revolution like in Tunisia/Libya even though they need one. And we mean the events in the early 90′s as for today we have brothers there that have learned from past experiences. And they started making a new path of Jihad led by the SHaykh Abu Musab Abdul-Wadoud (AQIM) may God protect him. And to avoid the problems of Algeria repeating in Syria we have to explain ISIS group and paint a clear picture as we have lived it. And we received what the Scholars said to us like Abu Qatada and al-Maqdisi to not wage a open war against ISIS. we respond by not expanding fight against them and it will be restricted to repulsing their agression in areas where they attacked us. And this will continue until they accept an Islamic Court. And we call on our fighters in Aleppo to help the brothers in Sharqiyah. We call on scholars to increase their writings/instructions to Mujahidin in Syria. Now we register our Shar’i position towards ISIS.

First we must declare that we are innocent of ISIS ideology/idea and that this is not from us. Or from al-Qaeda (Central). Especially looking at OBL, Zawahiri, Abu Yahya & Attiyah al-Libi, Zarqawi messages you will find a clear difference in the Manhaj/methodology and dealing with those that don’t agree with you. ISIS has deviated from the right path. And we would like to emphasis on Zarqawi’s innocence from this idea, for he did not make Takfir on those who opposed them. And he used to work with those he could work with and did not change the battle against America to fight those who opposed him. And it’s known that majority of the groups in Syria (Islamically) are better than the groups of Iraq. And people think that the problems between Nusra & ISIS started when ISIS was announced which is not true. The reason for announcement was due to (prior) 9 months of suffering by Nusra when ISIS tried to take the mistakes from Iraq to Syria. Even though Nusra & ISIS had agreement regarding that, as Baghdadi said to Jawlani: Transferring Iraq’s reality to Syria is suicide.