The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Stubby

I generally agree with both you and schmeisser when you say that ISI(S) has always been a little further away from AQ central and the typical AQ operation. However I think it's clear that, contra armchair jihadist fantasy, ISIS has dug itself into this pit with consistent overreach. They don't have a monopoly on foreign fighters (Abdul Waheed Majid, the Chechens, etc), and there is genuine jihadi infighting, not the just fake (declared so for ideological clarity) jihadis versus the real jihadis.

Here's another "secondary source" on some of the Chechens with JaN: http://eaworldview.com/2014/02/syria-qa-chechen-jihadis-jabhat-al-nusra-al-qaeda/

Schmeisser
What is your point exactly? I'm not trying to prove anything to you. You certainly haven't proven anything here. I'm not pretending on magic hotlines or trying to make a case or trying to submit my poasts to academia. You can take or leave what I say or think if you think I've got nothing but spurious info. You can even start a Syria Reputable Data Thread for spergs to lord it over. Rest assured, I won't bother.
Schmeisser

Baghdadi and co also make a point that Zawahiri got obsessed with Nusra's popularity. It seemed a good thing to exploit to Zawahiri, but now it has AQ working with bogus Gulf state-backed and funded IF groups. Nusra people are even sounding like Madkhali preachers dealing with anti-Saud Salafis when it comes to ISIS. In that sense, Nusra is looking like a sell-out on behalf of AQC, and with the US State Department now considering backing IF, this is egg on their face. And with AQAP, al-Shabaab, other AQ affiliates, TTP, Indonesian jihadists, and others worldwide strongly sympathetic to ISIS, this could create larger fitnah.

ISIS is making some retreats now, but they're still holding ground well and their counterattacks are hitting hard. They're showing a lot of people who thought they should be less bold what a little faith can do. But yeah, let's see in a year. Either way, their caliphate scheme is bolder than anyone else's, and they've advanced it furthest. It's the only one to really tear up Sykes-Picot.

SweetLeftFoot
Shame they don't do any of their very effective attacks - and they are by far and away the most tactically apt of the groups in Syria - against Assad forces.

There is absolutely no doubt there's some form of agreement or partnership going on between ISIS and the Assad regime.

Both betting that a deal with the devil is OK because once they've wiped out "the other side", they will inevitably win the big Assad vs ISIS fight.

Me, I'd be putting my money on Assad to win that.
Angocachi
The ISIL attacks Assad's military such as when they took Menagh Air Base, and Assad attacks ISIL such as in the Battle of Sadad. Furthermore, ISIL has published video of their attacks on Assad's military.

For Assad to have a pact with the ISIL would be a serious betrayal of Nasrullah and Maliki, as ISIL has and continues to launch attacks on Hezbollah and the Iraqi government... who have helped and continue to help Assad tremendously, spilling their blood for him even.

I am suspicious of a something between Iran and Zawahiri. Accusations have been coming out of the US that Iran has been aiding Zawahiri men, releasing them from custody and allowing them to operate in Iran... even to use it to move Zawahiri agents and assets from Pashtunistan to the Mashriq. This happened just as the Baghdadi-Zawahiri split came wide open and Nusra went into combat against the ISIL.
All parties are aligned against Baghdadi and his ISIL, I suspect Iran might be allowing Zawahiri whatever he needs to crush the ISIL knowing that if Zawahiri wins he won't take AQ to war with the Shia and their Persian head as Baghdadi has.
Schmeisser
Lol, looks like I wasn't full of it after all. If you heard the news: al-Jolani, the commander of Jabhat al-Nusra, released a statement today threatening ISIS in Iraq. In possibly related news, a group called Jabhat al-Murabiteen just announced its formation in Iraq declaring democracy and secularism kefr. This group is almost certainly composed out of Ansar al-Islam people, people friendly to IF and Nusra and hostile to ISIS. Note too that al-Jolani also just pronounced takfeer on FSA, SNC, and SMC. "Apostates."
Stubby

In context it's just a response to the assassination of Abu Khalid al-Suri, which expands this whole battle from being one of periodic and sometimes isolated clashes between ISIL and JaN, to an open one between ISIL and AQ everywhere. It can't be framed as one where ISIL is the victim of aggression. The provocations started months before open fighting began. For ISIL to speak of treachery after essentially invading Syria, demanding that their Syrian counterpart swear allegiance to Abu Bakr, and refusing joint arbitration of disputes. What was happening to foreign fighters (who are present in the ranks of other orgs) when all this was happening?

Schmeisser

First off, those foreign fighters hardly would know all that.

Second, Abu Kalid al-Suri was almost certainly killed by Islamic Front. What would ISIS gain? The story on his death still keeps changing.

Third, the statement came out within a day and all the decisions on it were hardly made overnight. How is his takfeer on the SMC to be seen in your context? You're getting filtered information.

Fourth, weird things are going on with Nusra and AQC. They got too close to that IF thing. Fighting against ISIS in Anbar is fucking retarded. Hypocrisy is coming to full bloom, and I'm disappointed to see Nusra involved in it. They did let in a lot of riff raff though.

Stubby
Abu Khalid was involved with AQ central and Ahrar al Sham, so ISIS would gain whatever they normally do by killing their opponents. For those same reasons I see no reason to even imagine that the IF is involved. I'll let you explain how that's even remotely plausible. And no one is fighting against ISIS in Anbar, the threat to do so is pretty mild in fact compared to threatening to "drink the blood of the sahwa" in Syria.

I don't see how deciding (threatening to) fight against someone who's sworn to do that, and who has a good track record of such, could be retarded, unless you assume the POV and values of ISIS.
Stubby


I prefer ISIS to this though, surenos in Syria.............................................................................. is this even real???????????? Can't tell if that's a German or Syrian flag on the guys vest.