The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Angocachi
If it's as it appears, and Baghdadi is now at war with Assad, Maliki, Zawahiri, Erdogan, Nasrullah, Saud, the Kurds, America and so on... he's kicking ass considering.
Stubby




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Heavy fighting has continued in the Qalamoun area, now concentrated in Yabrud. Here's part of a report on it featured on Brown Moses. The rest can be found here http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2014/02/special-report-on-hezbollahs-role-in.html and here http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2014/02/special-report-on-yabrud-offensive-from.html

Hezbollah, supported by Syrian tanks, artillery and air raids, has started this morning a large scale battle advancing toward the city of Yabrud in the Qalamoun, close to the Lebanese-Syrian border.
In fact, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah initiated weeks ago their military operation when thousands of Special Forces were pushed in the area with the following objectives:
  1. Cut the supply line between Lebanon (Arsal) and Syria where rebels have safe heaven.
  2. Protect Damascus and its rif.
  3. Divide, through future military operations, the North from the South of Syria.
Hezbollah used in this attack self-made Volcano (Burkan) rockets to advance on the ground from Nabak and Deir Atiya re-taking Al-Jarajeer and all the surrounding hills between Lebanon and Syria. As this article is published, the battle is ongoing in Mazare Rim. The next stop is Fallita before heading toward Yabrud. Hezbollah has learned its lesson in Qusayr: “No more safe exits for rebels” since more than a thousand of them escaped towards Qalamoun. Today, Hezbollah has to fight against those same rebels once more.

A senior leader in the joint operations room, run by Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, said that "the Special Forces started their ground attack on all axes at the crack of dawn. Hezbollah intelligence unit, through meticulous under-cover operation, has gathered detailed information on the number of rebels, where their command centers are, and what is their capability and readiness to fight."

The source said: "After gathering all necessary information, we launched the attack, which coincided with the anniversary of the martyrdom of Hajj Imad Mughnniyeh, Sayyed Abbas Musawi, Sheikh Ragheb Harb and all those who fell by the extremist's car bombs sent to Lebanon. Our message to these: Nahnu Qadimun (We are coming)".

"The battle of Qalamoun will be run differently from the one of Qusayr: Far more intensive fire power to reduce loses and inflict more damage to the rebels. We shall block entry to the city and villages from all access and directions. The advance of the Special Forces (SF) will progress from six different axes to separate the rebel lines and isolate them into smaller groups." explained the source.

He pointed out "Hezbollah SF who have participated in the battle of East Ghota, Idlib and Qusayr have been deployed in the battle with their experience and full equipment, including their special Burkan (Volcano) to open the road."
Stubby
ISIS Commander Umar Shishani’s Right-Hand-Man Slams Jabhat al-Nusra “Treachery”


Abu Jihad Shishani, an ethnic Chechen fighter close to ISIS military commander Umar Shishani, has made a new video address in which he accuses Jabhat al-Nusra of “treachery”.

In this 44-minute video Abu Jihad says that Jabhat al-Nusra suddenly began to shell ISIS with Grad rockets, killing 45 fighters.
The video is the latest in a series of lengthy addresses made by Abu Jihad, who has previously spoken on behalf of Umar Shishani, who is a poor public speaker.

Later in the video, Abu Jihad says, “it became known that Jabhat al-Nusra had joined up with the so-called Islamic Front against ISIS”.
The time has come to speak out about the issue, he says, because Jabhat al-Nusra has teamed up with a “pro-democracy” group, so ISIS must explain its position to those of its “brothers” who may be sympathizing with Jabhat al-Nusra.

Abu Jihad begins by explaining who Jabhat al-Nusra are and how they came to Syria to help the fight against Assad and establish an Islamic State.
He says, “Jabhat was a part of ISIS, that is they were mujahideen from ISIS who were under an oath to ISIS.”
Abu Jihad claims that Jabhat al-Nusra leader al-Jolani had sworn two oaths to ISIS, the first to ISIS leader al-Baghdadi and the second stating that he would not make claims to power in Syria and would only be a military amir.

“As we see today he has broken the two oaths,” Abu Jihad says.
Abu Jihad accuses al-Jolani of aligning himself with groups who seek democracy and worldly aims.

In a lengthy anecdote, Abu Jihad accuses al-Jolani of spending too much money, and demanding too much, saying that al-Jolani tried to get hold of half a million dollars that had been sent from Iraq to ISIS in Syria “even though he gets millions of dollars from Aleppo province alone in trophies and tributes”.

Later in the video Abu Jihad talks about a story told to him by a fighter who fought alongside JAN in the storming of Aleppo Prison. He says that Abdullah al-Mohaisany, a Saudi jihadi preacher who claimed to have made an address during the battle, was in fact located on a road outside the prison where there was no fighting taking place.

Abu Jihad has made several public attacks on Mohaisany, including in a previous video, where he accused him of not being a real jihadi and said he had a penchant for having his photograph taken holding a weapon, but far away from any battlefield action.

read the story and see the video here: http://eaworldview.com/2014/02/syria-umar-shishanis-right-hand-man-slams-jabhat-al-nusra-treachery/

Pretty ridiculous claims after all that has been revealed about Baghdadi and his power grabbing.
Bob Dylan Roof
Welund

Nothing to do with Syria, but:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/A5YSaF5DIIk

The fat lesbian man explains Mandela by saying that it doesn't matter what you think of him, a tyrannical dictator or not, he rose from prison to the leader of his country and deserves respect. He didn't let any kampf deter him from what he was determined to accomplish. Setting aside the politics, he had the will to power. The trains also ran on time.

Schmeisser
Not really when Nusra has been absorbing secular FSA brigades into its ranks and are now speculating setting up JaN affiliates in Iraq and elsewhere and are currently working closely with the Islamic Front. Everyone thought Nusra would be able to destroy ISIS quickly, but ISIS is holding out against them, IF, FSA, SRF, PKK, and two Shia regimes, and even gaining ground in some sectors. I think people forget that foreign fighters tend to fight very hard and hold out very long in like situations.
Stubby

Feel free to back up any of those claims Schmeisser , particularly about JaN looking towards Iraq. Also feel free to tag this "everyone" and those "people" to this thread.

In the meantime foreign fighters are fighting on all sides: http://eaworldview.com/2013/12/syri...aish-khilafatul-islamia-join-jabhat-al-nusra/

Baghdadi is a power grabber who started the whole schism: http://world.time.com/2014/02/03/why-al-qaeda-kicked-out-its-deadly-syria-franchise/

Really looking forward to the coming episode of "no true jihadi".

Schmeisser

Your sources are second-hand garbage anyways. Neither are new to me. The second is coming in very late. Zawahiri merely stated what many had already known (note I'd previously said here that ISIS is not AQ) but it did have impact immediately. For over a month now foreign fighters have been targeted as ISIS by IF and SRF. Many foreign fighters of Nusra including at least one American defected to ISIS. My source for the JaN claim is @ShamiWitness via Twitter.

Stubby
My sources include the actual transcripts and videos of the subjects being discussed, that isn't second hand. Unless you mean I should pretend like I have some hotline with Baghdadi, like you do. But then I'm not a poser. I also don't pass off ephemeral bullshit like some random tweet (made by another random partisan like yourself, less reputable in fact than my sources) as fact, blithely stating something as ridiculous on it's face as JaN opening up shop in Iraq. I'd say that we can check on the truth of that claim some time from now, but this kind of spray and pray style that self serving partisans like yourself use means that most stupid claims (like the IF shooting off Saudi Arabia's ATGM arsenal) fade away unexposed.
Angocachi

I agree with the opportunist portrayal of Baghdadi and of Zarqawi. They joined AQ for the benefits such affiliation provides, but once they were on their own feet... doing their own financing, recruiting, training, etc... they outgrew their need for the promotion, management, and connections offered to them by the agency out of Waziristan. That was not a problem by itself, but when Zawahiri started giving orders contrary to AQ in Iraq's agenda, in the case of Zarqawi and Baghdadi, he was ignored.
Zawahiri is looking at the bigger picture; he's against open conflict with Iran, genocide against Shia and Christians, and attacks that kill Muslim civilians. His mind is 100% focused on bringing down Western client regimes, repulsing/deterring Western interventions made on behalf of those regimes' behalf, discrediting Islamist Democrats, uniting disparate Sunni Jihadist groups, and portraying AQ as protagonists to the Muslim street.
AQ in Iraq has repeatedly taken Zawahiri off course, but it simply must. AQ in Iraq can't exist as anything other than a purposefully horrific, massacre machine against the Shia. It can't tolerate differing opinions, it can't compromise to make friends, it can't be a PR safe, hero's story. There is no niche in Iraq for AQ to be anything other... and what's more, it doesn't have to be.

I sympathize with the ISIS because they get the job done, they open Shariah courts and wage an effective guerilla campaign simultaneously. Also, they're not afraid of fighting the whole world just to stand on principle. However, Zawahiri's long view, international view, can't be dismissed. What good does establishing an Islamic Statelet do if it is soon swallowed by its enemies because it wasn't calculating and slick?
Zawahiri himself believes in a world that snuffs out the fools. ISIS is headstrong, bold, and resilient... where they are in a year or so will be the proof of whether they were fools who ignored a wise old warrior's bidding, or the stuff of vigor and fire that made the elder eat his foot.