The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Jun 2013

Angocachi Mike Stubby Vuk Roland President Camacho SweetLeftFoot

Here's a deep analysis of the initial moments in the Battle of Aleppo:

The Battle for Aleppo

Jun 13, 2013 - Liam Durfee, Conor McCormick, Stella Peisch

The Syrian regime has launched an offensive in the northern province of Aleppo. This operation follows shortly after the regime victory at al-Qusayr in Homs province, where Hezbollah forces and National Defense Forces played key roles. Along with key regime units, these forces have redeployed to Aleppo in support of this operation, indicating its strategic significance to Assad. A regime victory at Minnakh Airbase, north of Aleppo city, would secure regime resupply to forces clearing the countryside north of Aleppo city, threatening the opposition presence in the province and isolating opposition strongholds in Idlib and al Raqqa.

On the heels of its success in al-Qusayr, the Syrian government launched a new offensive against rebel-held areas in Aleppo province, marked by the deployment of thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants on June 2.[1] Focusing on strategic targets in northern Aleppo province, government forces have reinforced their defenses at Minnakh Airbase, and started to deploy on a large scale in the surrounding countryside. The swift advance toward Aleppo comes in lieu of regime force consolidation in positions surrounding al-Qusayr in Homs province, suggesting that the Syrian government believes its potential for success against a reeling rebel force in the contested environs of Aleppo city outweighs the dangers of losing some of the ground recently gained in al-Qusayr.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad likely perceives the current momentum shift in his favor as an opportunity to deal a lethal blow to the opposition. Furthermore, he likely seeks to defeat the armed opposition militarily before they can be armed by Western powers. Given that rebel positions in Aleppo province are not operationally oriented to counter a regime ground campaign, and that the Syrian Military has been revitalized by Hezbollah’s overt involvement in the conflict, it is not beyond reason for the Syrian government to think that a primary offensive could lead to results similar to those seen in al-Qusayr. However, despite its impressive military gains in recent weeks, the Syrian government does not have the forces required to simultaneously retake all rebel-held areas of the country, and there are limits to the amount of reinforcements that Hezbollah can provide. This suggests not only that the regime will struggle to achieve a level of success in Aleppo, but also that it will risk losing territory gained in recent offensives. The regime faces the risk that its campaign may culminate before it reaches its operational and strategic objectives.

The Syrian government is employing a familiar strategy in the potential battle for northern Aleppo, called Operation Northern Storm .[2] This strategy proved successful in the battles for Wadi al-Deif and Maarat al-Numan leading up to its victory in al-Qusayr. At the Wadi al-Deif Airbase, next to the city of Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, regime military forces broke a significant rebel siege and were able to re-establish an important strategic presence before attempting to retake the rebel-controlled town of Maarat al-Numan.[3] Once in control of Maarat al-Numan, government forces were then able to re-open critical ground supply lines which allowed for the redirection of airpower and an expansion of its air campaign over Homs province prior to its advance on al-Qusayr. A similar operation is now underway at Minnakh Airbase, where government reinforcements have been flown to help break through the rebel siege, and clearance operations are occurring in the villages located along the highway leading into Minnakh. If the regime is able to break the siege at Minnakh, it will be able to push south to consolidate its control of the highway leading into Aleppo city, thereby cutting off an important supply line for the opposition. This will set the stage for a potential siege of Aleppo city as government troops are able to advance on the city from both the south and the north.

- See more at: http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/battle-aleppo

Don Johnson Saturday 22 Jun 2013

The West should intervene in Syria for many reasons. One is to stem the rise of Persian power

The Economist

Jun 22nd 2013

"Despite its economic troubles, the Iranian state is a powerful beast compared with its neighbours, and is keen to assert itself abroad. The Iraqi government is now its ally. It has sway over chunks of Lebanon through Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia it finances. And it has sent Hizbullah into Syria, where its fighters have joined Iranian advisers, money and special forces to help turn the tide of the war in Bashar Assad’s favour. Ostensibly the reason why Barack Obama agreed last week to arm the rebels in Syria (see article) was Mr Assad’s use of chemical weapons; but many believe that the greater reason was his reluctance to see Mr Assad hold on to power as a client of Iran’s. "

[...]

"The growing risk of a nuclear Iran is one reason why the West should intervene decisively in Syria not just by arming the rebels, but also by establishing a no-fly zone. That would deprive Mr Assad of his most effective weapon—bombs dropped from planes—and allow the rebels to establish military bases inside Syria. This newspaper has argued many times for doing so on humanitarian grounds; but Iran’s growing clout is another reason to intervene, for it is not in the West’s interest that a state that sponsors terrorism and rejects Israel’s right to exist should become the regional hegemon. "

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 22 Jun 2013

Don Johnson

Nice find: Problem-Reaction-Solution

We destabilize Syria to further weaken Iran, so now we must intervene to further weaken Iran.

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 22 Jun 2013

FSA tank hit by SAA anti-tank missile. The cameraman is wounded.

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 22 Jun 2013

Good comment here :

RememberGiap
22 June 2013 10:55pm
Recommend 19
Although it's obvious it must be reiterated . This open decision to directly arm and work with insurgents to achieve regime change against a Sovereign country and member of the United Nations ' rips up ' the UN Charter and effectively puts the final nail in the coffin of international law and the construct of what was 20th Century global governance . With Iraq the US / UK made much of attempting to get UN authority to attack and ' spun ' former resolutions to justify it . With Libya it ' extended ' the meaning of a UN resolution to effect regime change . With Syria they no longer care or try to get a ' fig leaf ' to cover them . The UN as a global institution that attempted to regulate , however badly , the actions between member states now rendered a meaningless dinosaur from a previous age . We have now entered the law of the jungle where todays powerful predators can become tomorrows weaker victims .

SweetLeftFoot Sunday 23 Jun 2013

Hezbollah used Kornets to great effect against the Merkavas in 06. FSA armour wouldn't last long against well trained and equipped SAA forces.

I think the West, now they are arming the rebels, are going to get a nasty surprise with some stuff: that is, their battlefield tech, especially as regards MANPADS andf anti-armour, is well behind the Russian tech.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 23 Jun 2013

This is Spain all over again. The Saudis and Qataris are going for broke but Turkey is now a problem more than it is a guarantor of a solution.

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 25 Jun 2013

Angocachi Roland SweetLeftFoot Mike Stubby President Camacho

Reports of a rift between Syrian and Iraqi Sunni Islamist leaders.

Analysis - Al Qaeda's Syria rift may lead to open conflict among jihadis

A rift between Syria n jihadis and their fellow fighters from al Qaeda's Iraqi wing may lead to internecine war among some of the most effective rebel groups in combating President Bashar al-Assad.

Trouble has been brewing since April over what Syria's Nusra Front regards as a power grab by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq. Now, Baghdadi's insistence that he will keep fighting as head of a united jihadi brigade in Syria, defying orders from al Qaeda chief Ayman Zawahri, has brought the two groups close to turning on each other.

"Tension is increasing, it is about to reach boiling point. Both sides are saying they are right. A clash between them could occur soon and if it happens, it will be ugly," said a senior rebel commander in Damascus who is following the dispute.

The two-year uprising against Assad has drawn fighters from many foreign countries to both sides, in what is increasingly a sectarian struggle between the main denominations of Islam. Some Iraqi Shi'ites are fighting for Assad, whose Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam, while Iraqi Sunni radicals who once took on U.S.-led forces at home have joined the Syrian rebels.

Baghdadi's attempt to unite the Syrian and Iraqi wings of al Qaeda has provoked the dispute at a sensitive time when some Western governments are considering arming more moderate rebels, but fear the weapons might fall into the radicals' hands.

In April Baghdadi announced his Islamic State of Iraq was merging with the Nusra Front, which has staged some of the deadliest attacks on Assad's forces.

This apparently unilateral move opened up bitter and public rifts with the Nusra Front leadership - which resisted what it saw as his bid for overall power - and with Zawahri, the global al Qaeda leader who instructed him to put the merger on hold in an apparent attempt to settle the row.

Baghdadi dismissed the demand from Zawahri, who has headed al Qaeda since U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. The merged Islamic state of Iraq and Levant "is staying as long as we have a pulse and an eye that blinks... We will not compromise over its existence," Baghdadi responded earlier this month.

"After consultation I decided to (follow) the order from God over the order that opposes it," he added in an audio message.

Nusra fighters, other rebels and Islamic sources reacted by saying Baghdadi had effectively severed his al Qaeda links.

"He rejected the ruling of Sheikh Zawahri and therefore he is no longer a brother of al Qaeda," said a senior Nusra commander. "After Sheikh Zawahri ruled in our favour, the State (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant) is illegitimate."

PUSHING BAGHDADI OUT
A source close to Nusra leader Abu Mohammad Golani described Baghdadi's defiance as dangerous. "We have no choice but to confront them, or Zawahri himself has to deal with these people," he said.

Nusra was ready to fight Baghdadi's forces and kick them out of Syria, but "Golani does not want bloodshed among brothers in Islam, he added. "Right now there is a decision to avoid them... but if he acts in a way that goes against Syria's interest he will be pushed out by force, him and his people."

Beneath the bluster, Nusra fighters appear to be in no position for now to challenge Baghdadi's forces, and would need time to regroup and find allies among Syria's other rebels.

A senior commander from a hardline Islamist rebel brigade in the northern province of Idlib said Baghdadi's men would probably win a direct clash.

"Nusra was weakened by (Baghdadi's) takeover and weakened even more by the split that happened," he said. "It will be very difficult for Golani or anybody to bring it back from ashes."
With powerful, mostly foreign, fighters on his side, Baghdadi forced Golani and some of his men to go underground, confiscating some Nusra weapons. Many other Nusra fighters went home or joined other Islamist brigades.

But the source close to Golani said the fact that most of Baghdadi's fighters were non-Syrians meant they could end up isolated, even among the jihadis, because they were more concerned with imposing an Islamist agenda than toppling Assad.

Resentment about Baghdadi's agenda in Syria echoes the way that al Qaeda fighters alienated many Sunni fighters during the Iraqi insurgency against the U.S. occupation forces and the Shi'ite-led government in Baghdad. This could encourage other rebel brigades to join a Nusra backlash against Baghdadi.

President Camacho Tuesday 25 Jun 2013

A "planned chaos" strategy by policy wonks, state dept company men, pro-Israel lobbyists and the like can coexist perfectly fine alongside the childish idealism of simpletons like McCain. McCain is just a useful idiot to these people.

That's basically been the story with "Christian Zionists" for the past half century: there's an exoteric, pie-in-the-sky message for the uninitiated (Jesus loves Jews, Israel is the vanguard of Christendom and Democracy) and an esoteric, Machiavellian message for the inner circle (leverage American power to shield and deflect blows from Israel's enemies). Clowns like McCain and Hillrod are just too dense and sophmoric to grasp the gravity of the issues they get involved in, but that doesn't negate the possibility that certain actors in Fedgov do.

Team Zissou Tuesday 25 Jun 2013

President Camacho said: ↑

A "planned chaos" strategy by policy wonks, state dept company men, pro-Israel lobbyists and the like can coexist perfectly fine alongside the childish idealism of simpletons like McCain. McCain is just a useful idiot to these people.

That's basically been the story with "Christian Zionists" for the past half century: there's an exoteric, pie-in-the-sky message for the uninitiated (Jesus loves Jews, Israel is the vanguard of Christendom and Democracy) and an esoteric, Machiavellian message for the inner circle (leverage American power to shield and deflect blows from Israel's enemies). Clowns like McCain and Hillrod are just too dense and sophmoric to grasp the gravity of the issues they get involved in, but that doesn't negate the possibility that certain actors in Fedgov do.

"Useful idiots" is a good term.

I think a good indicator of the failings of the US political system is that McCain was ever heard from again after GW Bush trounced him nationwide in 2000. The man should have been sternly told to retire at that point. Just like Joe Lieberman should have been poisoned. Instead these jokers, including aging queen Lindsey Graham, are treated as elder statesmen.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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