The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Mike

^

This is huge yet unsurprising: factionalism seems to be the perennial bane of Salafis in particular and Arabic peoples in general. We saw the same thing a few years ago in the case of the Algerian civil war, with the Islamist rebels imploding against one another. Naturally I am looking at the situation as a Westerner who tends to value the nation-state, but, were I born an Arab from this region, I would join the Baathist program to overcome this overarching clannishness and factionalism. I would seek Iraq, Jordan and Syria to unite as a new country called North Arabia. It is ruinous to Arab interests and Islamic culture on the global stage that Arabs have absolutely no geopolitical analog to China, India or even Brazil. Arabs by their numbers and by geographical extent and, yes, by their native talent, should be one of the great powers of the earth, but instead it seems whenever you put three Arabs together in the same room, at least two of them want to cut each other's throats.

One of the reasons that I am convinced that the Prophet was, if nothing else, a supremely gifted and charismatic visionary, was his achievement of uniting the Arab tribes under one banner. You have to hand it to someone who successfully herds cats.
Niccolo and Donkey
Mike

The simple summary is that Arabs never passed the tribal stage towards that of the nation-state, which Ba'athism tried to achieve. This puts them 'out of time' in a global sense, much like how freed slaves were upon emancipation in the local sense.
Angocachi

If there is a rift between Iraqi Al Qaeda and the rest it'll be for the same reason Zarqawi stopped following orders from central... Iraqi Al Qaeda can finance, arm, train, and recruit all on its own while the command in Pashtunistan is distant. The fact tha Iran has since the Syrian War cracked down on AQ transit through Persia has inevitably cut the International Salafi network in half, thereby allowing Iraqi AQ to draw up its own plans.
In intel and Jihadi circles there are rumors that whenever an AQ head like Zarqawi or OBL are caught or killed, it is often by intelligence provided to the enemy by Zawahiri and his loyalists. He has his fingers on the personal data, courier programs, and financial means of every leading AQ figure.
Baghdadi appears to be trying to cut out a Mashriqi Emirate, and he wants all the Euphrates under his writ. This has support from pan-Islamists, but defies the powerful locals, tribes etc and risks seeing AQ evicted. Zawahiri is too wise and experienced to allow this. It's critical that each of AQ's statelets are so firmly rooted that when they declare a union there is no possibility of indigenous mafia banding together to close their shariah courts and attempt disarming their Salafi fighters. Baghdadi must know that he hasn't consolidated Anbar, Diyala, or any part of Sunni Iraq save the countryside and a few neighborhoods in cities like Mosul. He must think that the profits and arms he can pull in al Sham will give him the power to eclipse the Sahwa at home.

Niccolo and Donkey
Niccolo and Donkey
President Camacho Ash Thomas777 Roland Angocachi anunnaki Stubby Mike SweetLeftFoot Vuk

Aw fuck....................

Syrian rebels beheads bishop François Murad



From the Fides News Agency (news agency of the Vatican):

Bob Dylan Roof

Shameful. I hope Assad builds concentration camps for Sunni scum. The governments of the United States, the UK, and France share responsibility for this.

The executioner looks like an obese Amish or ZZ Top member.

Mike

^Wow. Sunni folks are somewhat lucky here in the sense that US-ZOG happens to be siding with the rebel cause and thus will not be eager to publicize this barbarity widely in the Western media. If "red state" Fox-News-viewing American Christians knew about this beheading, they would not take it lightly at all, as they've already been primed to believe that Muslims in general are a bunch of fanatical blood-thirsty savages. However Jewish controlled media are the tantamount opinion-forming organ in American society, and it doesn't serve their interests to play this killing up.

A quick Google news search shows primarily Catholic outlets picking up on this event. We'll see if that still stands in the next few hours.

Angocachi

It was Salafis that behead him. They don't have Western or GCC backing, but it can keep the West from backing the FSA if the Western public can't differentiate between Salafi Jihadists and ex-Baathist military defectors/opposition exiles. That's beneficial to the Salafis, as long as the FSA can't secure more backing from the West... it can not push secularism and it can not eclipse the Salafis in strength. That means when Assad's administration is finished in Sunni Syria, the West will have no strong puppet to contend for the throne.

Beheadings like this send the Christians packing, especially the affluent and educated who can immigrate on the quick, thus removing another pillar of the Assad regime.

It was a good decision by the Salafi wing of the rebellion.

Mike

^That's some cold-blooded calculus there. These Salafis make Hezbollah look like the Red Cross (or Red Crescent)*. I think I follow the logic, but isn't this level of polarization going to knock even a lot of moderate Sunnis on the opposite side of the fence? How do such Salafis plan to rule a relatively pluralistic place like Syria without basically exterminating everyone who doesn't sign up 101% with the program?

*IIRC the leader of Hezbollah predicted this sort of violence in a video posted earlier in the thread or on another thread. Worth watching, but I don't want to look for it right now.

Angocachi
The Shia are just as cold-blooded... look how they cleaned the Sunni from Baghdad.

'Moderate' is a code word for compromiser. Sunnis have nothing left to compromise, they get little for it anyhow, and they've learned that.

Salafis don't want a pluralistic state, they want a Shariah state. They'll run out every Shia, secularist, Christian, Druze, and Alawite they can and be happy to do it. That'll be impossible in non-Sunni demographic strongholds such as along the coast north of Lebanon... but the Sunni regions will be depleted of non-Sunnis and anybody opposed to Shariah. The Quran & Hadith will be the constitution, disagreements are allowed after that point, but that point isn't negotiable and they don't hesitate to kill those who oppose it. In their mind, if you oppose Shariah for a Muslim population you are usurping God and denying Muslims their justice. For them, if there is anything in the world worth killing over, it's that.