The Syria Analysis Thread

A Gleaming Leprosy Sunday 25 Dec 2016

This blog apparently says that DPRK pilots and artillery men have been participating in the fight against anti-government forces.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 26 Dec 2016

Fitz Tuesday 27 Dec 2016

Daesh real beneficiary of fall of Aleppo

YUSUF SELMAN İNANÇ @yusufsinanc
ISTANBUL
Published December 21, 2016

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A young Syrian child evacuated from the embattled Syrian city of Aleppo during the ceasefire arrives at a refugee camp in Rashidin, near Idlib, Syria.

After the evacuation of the moderate Syrian opposition from Aleppo due to the world's largely reckless policy to placate the Assad regime and its Shiite militias, Daesh can now propagate its claim to be the sole effective group that protects the Sunnis

As of last week, the battle for Aleppo ended, leaving in its wake massacres and displacements. While the regime-controlled enclaves of Aleppo were ablaze with pro-regime celebrations and the opposition-held part of the city was in deep misery, Daesh is on its way to becoming the main beneficiary of the situation. The brutal group has enjoyed filling the vacuums the regime has left behind and the Iran-backed Shiite militias were deployed in Aleppo for the said purpose of dealing the last blow to the moderate opposition groups. Daesh, which has been retreating for a while after Turkey launched Operation Euphrates Shield in a bid to clear its border from Daesh and the PKK's official Syrian branch the Democratic Union Party (PYD), made a significant advance against the regime, taking the symbolically significant ancient city of Palmyra back. It was like a gift for the group as it was its first major gain in the last six months.

The group was driven out of the city last May after Russia launched intense aerial strikes and the regime declared its victory, promising to repair the damaged ancient buildings and even organized a concert in the amphitheater. Barely six months later, Russia ordered the regime to send all its manpower to Aleppo, leaving Palmyra defenseless. Russia, in fact, has never had any intention of fighting Daesh but focused on crushing the moderate opposition groups for restoring Bashar Assad's power and preserving its military presence in the Mediterranean Sea. The U.S.-led international coalition, set up with the aim of erasing Daesh from both Syria and Iraq, has not been successful so far and has been accused of insufficient action against the group.

An allegation accused Iran-backed militias of receiving bribes from Daesh not to resist. Quoting pro-regime sources, the Daily Beast reported on Dec. 10 that "A pro-regime source told The Daily Beast that the oil and gas fields were defended by the National Defense Force, a pro-Assad militia built and trained by Iran. 'The NDF had over 800 men posted around the strategic Shaar gas field and the other areas, in addition to around 250 regular soldiers,' the source said. 'They had maintained defensive positions for the last six months. In August, operations had been stopped. When Daesh attacked days ago they retreated and left most of the heavy weapons without a fight. In the panic, over 100 were killed or are still missing. Word is that a senior NDF commander who was stationed around Shaar was bribed by Daesh. It is not the first time this has happened. A decision was made to prevent the city falling at all costs'." What was worse than abandoning the city was leaving heavy artillery weapons in the hands of Daesh. Syrian expert Hassan Hassan, quoting Daesh's Amaq News Agency on Twitter claimed that Daesh seized 44 tanks, 28 military vehicles and hundreds of guns and ammunition. Daesh also broadcasted a video showing the captured weapons.

Secondly, the fall of Aleppo into the hands of Iran-backed Shiite militias who are infamous for their atrocities against Sunni civilians have fueled Daesh's sectarian approach as well since the group claimed that the moderate opposition groups, which are also infidels in Daesh's eyes, failed to repel the Shiites' assaults. In several articles, Daesh has made calls to the Syrians to side with the group against the Shiites, decorating the rhetoric with videos that show the militias' brutality. Daesh has been using sectarian hatred to mobilize people. "The group is adept at cultivating and exploiting preexisting sectarian fissures in the Middle East. Daesh taps into communal hatred and religious concepts to recruit and justify its acts, or to foster sympathy and neutralize forces that actively reject it. It has proven particularly powerful in outbidding al-Qaeda for recruits," a June-dated Carnegie report says when describing the group's actions.

While Iranian leaders were hailing the fall of Aleppo, claiming that the "sectarian terrorists" were cleared, Daesh, listed as a terrorist organization by hundreds of countries, including Turkey, the U.S., the European Union and Russia, was making advances.

Amadis Saturday 31 Dec 2016

- IS have always claimed (since going public in Syria in 2013) that they are the only protectors of Sunnis and denigrated other armed Sunni groups
- Various Islamist factions, including the AQ linked ones, continue to vie with IS for the position as 'Defender of Sunnis' (see: Idlib)
- The NDF is a complex group, not an Iranian proxy (but it is often corrupt or incompetent)
- Russia isn't focused on fighting any one group; it has fought numerous groups, including IS, as and when it fits their strategy
- IS's only real gain from Aleppo was the chance to retake Tadmur/Palmyra (which is mostly symbolic)

IS is a sectarian group which exploits sectarian tensions - but their beliefs and these issues existed before the Syrian Civil War, the 2003 Invasion of Iraq or even 9/11. Sectarianism has gotten worse in the Muslim world over the last decade but by this point you're either with them or you're not. I find it hard to believe any Sunni has managed to put up with the sectarian violence in Iraq or the brutality of Assad and only just become 'radicalised' by the fall of Aleppo. Anyway, I see just as much IS propaganda on (Sunni) civilian deaths caused by the Coalition or Turkey (in al-Bab); Aleppo is simply one among many other grievances. The only game changer at the moment would be the defeat of the various (anti-IS) Islamist factions in Idlib, which would leave IS in a 'last Sunni standing' position (as the defeat, takeover or dissipation of other insurgent groups did in Iraq).

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 2 Jan 2017

Former UK ambassador to Syria accuses Foreign Office of lying about the country's civil war

The ex-British Ambassador to Syria has accused the Foreign Office of lying over the country’s civil war and said British policy there has "made the situation worse".

Peter Ford said the Whitehall department led by Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond before him had "gotten Syria wrong every step of the way", and was now falsely claiming Bashar Assad could not control the country when he is "well on the way to doing so".

It comes after the Syrian army reported that it had taken full control of Aleppo following weeks of heavy bombing and fighting in and around the city.

Mr Ford, who was Britain's ambassador to Syria from 1999 to 2003, claimed that the UK had misread and misrepresented the situation in the country since the start of the conflict.

He said: "The British Foreign Office to which I used to belong, I’m sorry to say has gotten Syria wrong every step of the way.

"They told us at the beginning that Assad’s demise was imminent. They told us he’d be gone by Christmas. They didn’t say which Christmas, so they could still be proven correct.

"But then they told us that the opposition was dominated by these so-called moderates. That proved not to be the case and now they're telling us another big lie – that Assad can’t control the rest of the country. Well I’ve got news for them – he’s well on the way to doing so."

Mr Ford said that when the conflict started the UK should have either "put everything, including our own forces on to the battlefield, or if in our judgement – as it would have been my judgement – that was not realistic, refrain from encouraging the opposition to mount a doomed campaign."

He claimed the UK’s tough talk on one hand, followed by little action to back rebels in Syria on the other had preceded a rebellion that had "only led to hundreds of thousands of civilians being maimed and killed".
"We have made the situation worse."

He added: "It was eminently foreseeable to anyone who was not intoxicated with wishful thinking."

In a statement last night the Syrian army said it had "returned security to Aleppo" and called it a "crushing blow" for rebels.

The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed "all civilians who wished to be evacuated have been, as well as the wounded and fighters".

Mr Johnson said after a meeting in Paris earlier this month that there could be no military solution to the war in Syria, while the UK has consistently taken the line that Assad cannot be a part of Syria’s future.

A Foreign Office spokesman said: "The UK continues to believe in a Syrian-led political settlement. A political solution and transition away from Assad is the only way to end the suffering of the Syrian people. The Assad regime has the blood of hundreds of thousands on its hands. There is no way it can unite and bring stability to Syria.

"The UK has pledged more than £2.3bn to support those affected by the Syrian conflict and sought to reduce the suffering with every diplomatic lever at our command."

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 4 Jan 2017

Syrian Kurds should strive for autonomous region

D r. Sherkoh Abbas is the president of the Kurdistan National Assembly of Syria (Kurdnas) the organisation created after the major uprising in 2004 (al-Qamishli protests in Syria). Abbas was born in Qamishli in north-eastern Syria and migrated to United States in 1980’s. He currently lives in Washington but frequently visits the Kurdish areas in Middle East. In an exclusive interview with Manish Rai, Editor, ViewsAround (VA) he speaks about Kurdish role in current situation.

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Question: In your opinion what should be the ultimate goal of the Syrian Kurds creation of a new country (Kurdistan) or the autonomous region like Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq?

Dr. Abbas: The ultimate goal of the Syrian Kurds should be to create an autonomous federal region (like the KRG in Iraq). Creating an autonomous zone for the Syrian Kurds would be an experimentation like that of Iraq. It would allow the Future Syrian government a chance to prove that they can respect individual, ethnic, and regional rights. Moreover, could become a beacon of democracy that could influence the rest if Syria.

If the international community is willing to support the creation of an independent Kurdistan, most Kurds would prefer and support creating an independent Kurdistan comprised of Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan.

The KRG of Iraq provides a great example of a regional government, which protects the individuals within its borders and still maintains enough autonomy to use as leverage against the central government. In Iraq, the central government tries to abuse its relationship with the KRG, and then there is talk of secession which brings the central government back to the bargaining table. The KRG maintains enough autonomy so that the threat of secession is plausible and real, but they would like to remain as part of the overall structure of Iraq because it benefits the KRG and the central Iraqi government. A similar model for Syria could produce the same effects.

Q: In Post War Syria what role can be played by different Kurdish political parties for strengthening Kurdish cause?

Abbas: The political parties in the Kurdish region of Syria play a large role in the peace and security of the Kurdistan region there. For instance, PYD/YPG policies and governance has caused tensions with Turkey, but they could work to cool these tensions through a peaceful political process. All of the Kurdish political parties need to work towards lasting peace in the Kurdish region of Syria, both internally and externally. The KRG of Iraq is a great example of how Kurds can gain acceptance by, and work with, their neighbours in the region. True democracy is peaceful to its citizens and neighbours, and much more can be done through economic prosperity and negotiations than can be accomplished at the end of a gun. After all, Syrian Kurds do understand that PYD/YPG have been compromised by the regimes of Iraq, Iran and Syria and other entities such as PKK. Most Syrian Kurdish political groups beside PYD/YPG are moderate pro-west, acceptable to neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Israel and KRG.

Q: In current situation what role The Democratic Union Party (PYD) is playing in Syrian arena?

Abbas: The PYD/YPG is playing a negative role in Syria at the moment. They are working with the Assad Regime and the Iraqis and Iranians to re-establish Assad’s control over the Kurdish region of Syria. The PYD/YPG is dealing with the devil they know, so that they do not have to take responsibility for the Kurdistan region of Syria. They have been preaching democracy, autonomy, and federalism, but now they are reverting back to supporting Assad. To all of the Kurds (and others) fighting for the PYD/YPG, they have been the victim of a tremendous bait-and-switch. Everyone fighting for the PYD/YPG thought they were fighting for the Kurds, when in reality they were fighting for Assad and Iran.

Q: What do you think about the Turkey’s current military campaign inside Syria which aims to stop Kurds from gaining more territory?

Abbas: I think Turkey has concerns about their territorial security, and the PKK using the Kurdish region of Syria as a safe-haven for the PKK. They are not necessarily against Kurds, but they are against the PKK and anyone who submits to the influence of the PKK. Turkey should reach-out to Syrian Kurds and support their rights of self-governing within Syria and influence the international community and Syrian Arab oppositions to accept a model for Syria similar to KRG of Iraq.

Q: Dr Abbas do you think in coming time all the Syrian Kurdish political parties will be able to unite for the larger benefit of Kurdish people?

Abbas: I do think that it would be possible, if the Kurdish people throw off the shackles of negative foreign influence (such as Iran and Syria). Right now some of the truly democratic political parties are sitting in jail under the PYD/YPG regime.

The Kurdistan National Assembly of Syria works with all of the major political, tribal, and civic organizations in the Kurdistan Region of Syria. We work with Kurds, Arabs, Christians, and more. True democracy is good for everyone, and all ethnic/religious groups (not only the Kurds). The PYD/YPG needs to moderate itself, and cut its ties with the PKK, Assad, and Iran. Until they accept democracy and work with truly local parties/peoples, then they will only be operating to the detriment of the Kurdish people. When Assad tries to eliminate them after their tasks are complete, no Kurds will support them due to their negative behaviors toward other Kurds, Kurdish Peshmerga, and KRG of Iraq.

Q: Do you think that non-syrian Kurds (Iraqi, Iranian and Turkic) should directly support their Syrian brothers by fighting on their side?

Abbas: Kurds from Iraq and Iran have not really been supporting the PYD/YPG because they are not truly Kurdish. I would not want anyone to think they are fighting for Kurdish democracy and autonomy, when they would be (in reality) fighting for Assad and Iran under the PYD/YPG. In-fact, they have hijacked the Kurdish cause within Syria.

A Gleaming Leprosy Friday 13 Jan 2017

Syrian army says Israel fires rockets at air base near Damascus

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 14 Jan 2017

Iran repopulates Syria with Shia Muslims to help tighten regime's control

In the valleys between Damascus and Lebanon, where whole communities had abandoned their lives to war, a change is taking place. For the first time since the conflict broke out, people are starting to return.

But the people settling in are not the same as those who fled during the past six years.

The new arrivals have a different allegiance and faith to the predominantly Sunni Muslim families who once lived there. They are, according to those who have sent them, the vanguard of a move to repopulate the area with Shia Muslims not just from elsewhere in Syria , but also from Lebanon and Iraq.

The population swaps are central to a plan to make demographic changes to parts of Syria, realigning the country into zones of influence that backers of Bashar al-Assad, led by Iran, can directly control and use to advance broader interests. Iran is stepping up its efforts as the heat of the conflict starts to dissipate and is pursuing a very different vision to Russia, Assad’s other main backer.

Russia, in an alliance with Turkey, is using a nominal ceasefire to push for a political consensus between the Assad regime and the exiled opposition. Iran, meanwhile, has begun to move on a project that will fundamentally alter the social landscape of Syria, as well as reinforcing the Hezbollah stronghold of north-eastern Lebanon, and consolidating its influence from Tehran to Israel’s northern border.

“Iran and the regime don’t want any Sunnis between Damascus and Homs and the Lebanese border,” said one senior Lebanese leader. “This represents a historic shift in populations.”

Key for Iran are the rebel-held towns of Zabadani and Madaya, where Damascus residents took summer breaks before the war. Since mid-2015 their fate has been the subject of prolonged negotiations between senior Iranian officials and members of Ahrar al-Sham, the dominant anti-Assad opposition group in the area and one of the most powerful in Syria.

Talks in Istanbul have centred on a swap of residents from two Shia villages west of Aleppo, Fua and Kefraya, which have both been bitterly contested over the past three years. Opposition groups, among them jihadis, had besieged both villages throughout the siege of Aleppo, attempting to tie their fate to the formerly rebel-held eastern half of the city.

The swap, according to its architects, was to be a litmus test for more extensive population shifts, along the southern approaches to Damascus and in the Alawite heartland of Syria’s north-west, from where Assad draws much of his support.

Labib al-Nahas, the chief of foreign relations for Ahrar al-Sham, who led negotiations in Istanbul, said Tehran was seeking to create areas it could control. “Iran was very ready to make a full swap between the north and south. They wanted a geographical continuation into Lebanon. Full sectarian segregation is at the heart of the Iranian project in Syria. They are looking for geographical zones that they can fully dominate and influence. This will have repercussions on the entire region.

“[The sieges of] Madaya and Zabadani became the key issue to prevent the opposition from retaking Fua and Kefraya, which have exclusive populations of Shia. Hezbollah consider this a security zone and a natural extension of their territory in Lebanon. They have had very direct orders from the spiritual leadership of Iran to protect them at any cost.”

Iran has been especially active around all four towns through its Hezbollah proxies. Along the ridgelines between Lebanon’s Bekaa valley and into the outskirts of Damascus, Hezbollah has been a dominant presence, laying siege to Madaya and Zabadani and reinforcing the Syrian capital. Wadi Barada to the north-west, where ongoing fighting is in breach of the Russian-brokered ceasefire, is also part of the calculations, sources within the Lebanon-based movement have confirmed.

Elsewhere in Syria, demographic swaps are also reshaping the geopolitical fabric of communities that, before the war, had coexisted for centuries. In Darayya, south-west of Damascus, more than 300 Iraqi Shia families moved into neighbourhoods abandoned by rebels last August as part of a surrender deal. Up to 700 rebel fighters were relocated to Idlib province and state media announced within days that the Iraqis had arrived.

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The Sayeda Zainab mosque has been heavily fortified by Hezbollah. Photograph: Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images
Shia shrines in Darayya and Damascus have been a raison d’etre for the presence of Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed Shia groups. The Sayeda Zainab mosque on the capital’s western approach has been heavily fortified by Hezbollah and populated by families of the militant group, who have moved in since late 2012. Tehran has also bought large numbers of homes near the Zainab mosque, and a tract of land, which it is using to create a security buffer – a microcosm of its grander project.

Abu Mazen Darkoush, a former FSA commander who fled Zabadani for Wadi Barada said Damascus’s largest Islamic shrine, the Umayyad mosque, was now also a security zone controlled by Iranian proxies. “There are many Shia who were brought into the area around the mosque. It is a Sunni area but they plan for it to be secured by Shias, then surrounded by them.”

Senior officials in neighbouring Lebanon have been monitoring what they believe has been a systematic torching of Land Registry offices in areas of Syria recaptured on behalf of the regime. A lack of records make it difficult for residents to prove home ownership. Offices are confirmed to have been burned in Zabadani, Darayya, Syria’s fourth city, Homs, and Qusayr on the Lebanese border, which was seized by Hezbollah in early 2013.

Darkoush said whole neighbourhoods had been cleansed of their original inhabitants in Homs, and that many residents had been denied permission to return to their homes, with officials citing lack of proof that they had indeed lived there.

“The first step in the plan has been achieved,” he said. “It involved expelling the inhabitants of these areas and burning up anything which connects them to their land and homes. The second step will be replacing the original inhabitants with newcomers from Iraq and Lebanon.”

In Zabadani, Amir Berhan, director of the town’s hospital, said: “The displacement from here started in 2012 but increased dramatically in 2015. Now most of our people have already been taken to Idlib. There is a clear and obvious plan to move Sunnis from between Damascus and Homs. They have burned their homes and fields. They are telling people ‘this place is not for you anymore’.

“This is leading to the fragmentation of families. The concept of family life and ties to the land is being dissolved by all this deportation and exile. It is shredding Syrian society.”

At stake in postwar Syria, with the war beginning to ebb, is more than who lives where when the fighting finally stops. A sense of identity is also up for grabs, as is the bigger question of who gets to define the national character.

“This is not just altering the demographic balance,” said Labib al-Nahas. “This is altering the balance of influence in all of these areas and across Syria itself. Whole communities will be vulnerable. War with Iran is becoming an identity war. They want a country in their likeness, serving their interests. The region can’t tolerate that.”

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 17 Jan 2017

Into the Tunnels: The Rise and Fall of the Syrian Rebel Enclave of Eastern Ghouta

Way too long to post here, it comes with a handy 73-page .pdf file that I'm uploading in this post.

Fitz Amadis Fyrdsman

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 22 Jan 2017

The Syria Analysis Thread

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