The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Broseph

This is an important map.

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Amadis Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Aleppo might well turn into Hama '82 Mk.II

There will be impotent tears from the West, but there is no will to act; a Eunuch power which dangles its cock but hasn't the balls to use it.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Few people in the West are aware of what happened in Hama, much less the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the events.

One militant group in the City of Aleppo is threatening now to go over to the SAA...we will see.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Mayer has now fallen to the SAA.

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Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Fitz Broseph President Camacho kenshiro

The shitbags at The Atlantic Council publish a piece on the strategic importance of Aleppo and what these past 72 hours mean.

The Military and Political Significance of Aleppo

In a serious blow to the rebellion, the Syrian regime has severed the main insurgent supply line from Turkey to long-contested Aleppo, Syria’s second city. This is the culmination of several tactical regime victories against the opposition in recent weeks, largely due to Russian air support. Although some Western policy-makers (and many opposition supporters) continue to insist that Russia and its allies are sinking into a quagmire in Syria, the facts on the ground indicate that it is the insurgency and its backers who are stuck in a morass. In contrast with its position deteriorating as recently as five months ago, the regime is now well-placed to divide, isolate, and advance on the armed opposition in several key geographies.

In the last two days, the regime secured access to several towns north of Aleppo city, most prominently Nubl and Zahraa, succeeding in a few days in what it had failed to do for over three years. The regime could not have done this without support from Russia, which conducted more than 270 air raids on the areas north of Aleppo city on Monday and Tuesday of this week alone. By taking these towns, the regime has isolated Aleppo city from its northern countryside and cut all remaining supply lines to the city (it already controlled the city’s southern approaches), leaving only a three kilometer stretch of land that is still contested. If the regime opts to retake the city now, it will use its proven tactics of siege coupled with aerial and artillery bombardment, trapping and starving the inhabitants, and forcing them to surrender. Knowing this, thousands of civilians fled Aleppo as the regime cut the city off.

The regime and its allies had already been on a winning streak. In previous weeks, using cluster munitions and volumetric weapons , regime and Russian forces forced the opposition forces out of the key province of Latakia, retaking the last remaining opposition city Salma. Rather than advance on nearby Idlib and Hama, however, the regime made a strategic decision to concentrate on Aleppo further east. By separating the northern Aleppo countryside from Aleppo city, the regime has effectively cut access by the city’s insurgents to Bab al-Salama, their key supply line from Turkey. It now has the option to advance on rebel-held areas of Aleppo city.

Retaking Aleppo city would be a substantial win for the regime. Militarily, it would cut off opposition forces south of the city. It would also allow the regime to further isolate opposition forces in nearby Idlib and Hama. Rebel forces in northwestern Syria receive supplies from Turkey through two border crossings: Bab al-Salama in Aleppo province and Bab al-Hawa in Idlib province. If the regime takes Aleppo city, it could then target supply lines between Idlib- and Hama-based insurgents and Turkey. The regime may opt not to take Aleppo now, however, preferring to bomb and besiege it instead. That would simply freeze the Aleppo city frontlines and allow Assad and his allies to deploy fighters and resources elsewhere, including in Idlib and Hama. Regardless, the regime’s strategy will be isolating the opposition into manageable pockets and dealing with each individually.

Crucially, progress in Aleppo will free up resources against the Islamic State (ISIS). It is true that Assad and his allies have always prioritized fighting the insurgency over ISIS. The changing international environment, however, allows for a more sophisticated regime strategy. Despite frequent accusations, the regime and ISIS are not really allies. The regime simply sees the entire conflict through the prism of ensuring its own survival by any means necessary. Throughout the war, this has meant ignoring ISIS or facilitating its war against the rebels. Now, however, the regime would benefit enormously at the international level by clearing the Aleppo area of insurgents and ISIS alike (or following the Aleppo victory with some anti-ISIS wins elsewhere, such as Palmyra). That would demonstrate to the world that it must choose between Assad and ISIS, and that ISIS and the various insurgent groups are one and the same enemy. Considering the West’s singular focus on ISIS and tolerance of the regime, this would actually be a sound strategy.

Of course, the developments in Aleppo are happening amid a UN-sponsored diplomatic process involving the regime and the opposition. The talks are characterized by mistrust, confusion, and a bit of absurdity. The opposition insists that the other side implement UN resolutions calling for an end to targeting civilians, though as Aleppo shows the war is headed in precisely the opposite direction. Most obviously, given the shifting military balance, it is unclear why the regime would agree to any of these demands, still less make meaningful political concessions. It is even less clear how the opposition and its backers can compel it to do so. Staffan de Mistura, in a move acknowledging the futility of the talks when the regime and Russia refuse to stop bombing the opposition and civilians, today halted the attempts to conduct negotiations.

The opposition is aware of the danger the Aleppo defeat poses. Rebel forces in Aleppo have issued a statement calling on all opposition forces to send fighters and supplies to Aleppo, adding that they are fighting on two fronts: against both the regime and ISIS. Although rebels from Idlib and Hama have responded to the call, it is unlikely to significantly slow down the regime and Russia. Simply, opposition forces do not have an anti-aircraft capability. The United States and its allies will neither provide it nor impose direct costs on regime and Russian forces for aerial bombing, sieges, and other key regime tactics. As of now, with regime forces closing in on Aleppo city, the insurgency simply has no answer to the combination of determined enemies and incompetent or disinterested allies.

Fitz Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Russian military officer 'killed by Islamic State shelling in Syria'

Moscow (AFP) - A Russian military adviser has been killed in Syria by shelling from the Islamic State group, the Russian defence ministry told Ria Novosti news agency Wednesday.

The officer was training Syrian soldiers loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in the use of "new weapons" when he was "fatally wounded" on Monday, the ministry was quoted as saying. No details were given about where the attack took place.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group with a network of sources on the ground in Syria, said three Russian soldiers were also wounded in the attack, which it said took place in an area where IS does not have a presence.

The military adviser is the third Russian officer to have been killed since Moscow began its military intervention in the war-torn country in late September.

The Russian government has launched a massive air campaign in Syria against rebels fighting to overthrow Assad, a long-time Moscow ally, but it says no Russian troops are fighting on the ground.

The Observatory said Wednesday's incident took place in the northwestern province of Latakia, where it says rebel groups fighting against the regime operate, but not IS.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier Wednesday the country would press ahead with its bombing campaign in Syria until "terrorist organisations" such as the Islamic State jihadist group are defeated.

Russia suffered its first casualties in the conflict in November, when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet it claimed had violated Turkish airspace. One of the two pilots on board died in the downing. Another serviceman was killed in a subsequent rescue mission.

The incident triggered a huge row between the countries, with Turkey saying the jet strayed into its airspace and ignored repeated warnings, and Moscow insisting it did not cross over from Syria and accusing Ankara of a planned provocation.

Backed by the intense Russian air campaign, Syrian troops have been gaining ground in recent weeks. On Wednesday, Assad's regime cut the last supply route linking rebels in Aleppo to the Turkish border, in a major blow to the opposition.

The development was followed by the announcement that troubled talks in Geneva aimed at securing peace in Syria were being suspended until February 25.

mkondich Thursday 4 Feb 2016

Regarding the russian advisor who was killed, there are 3 likely possibilities. Northeast of damascus IS has been making gains in the barrens of eastern qalamoun. This area, southwest of mahin and qaryatayn, has been a traditional battleground for numerous jihadist groups (up to and including jaish al islam, ahrar, nusra, and isis). It has recently come under attack from IS militants that take advantage of the barren landscape to move small units of perhaps 2 or 3 trucks at time. This past weekend they claimed attacks on both nusra and syrian army positions, which include the air base (can't recall the name at the time of this writing). There are even photos of them firing artillery towards it.

Other two options are :Salma outskirts, where FSA has been TOW spamming from the next few mountains over to try and distract the SAA from advancing.

And kuweires, which has extensive work being done to it by the syrian arab air force to make it fully operational again. Though the buffer zone around the airport is not yet big enough to qualify for russian air presence (need 20+ km buffer zone on all sides) there are documented instances of russian soldiers present on the base. Last weekend IS also launched an artillery barrage towards the base.

So we have a number of options - luckily MOD leaves lots to the imagination. I'm sure in the end it won't have any effect on the military situation.

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 5 Feb 2016

mkondich Fitz

Here is a map of SAA/Hezbollah advances around Aleppo since the Russians came into the picture.

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Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 6 Feb 2016

SAA and allies continue to widen the swath of land taken in Northern Aleppo.

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The Syria Analysis Thread

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