The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 25 Jan 2016

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 26 Jan 2016

Juan Cole has an interesting rundown on how Putin and Assad are winning and how this bodes well for Russia's relations with Europe.

Top 5 ways Putin has won big in Syria

Russia is so far winning big in Syria, and making Moscow’s projection of force in the Middle East a reality that the other great powers have to recognize. As Russia has emerged as a major combatant against Syrian al-Qaeda and against Daesh (ISIS, ISIL), it is being accepted back into a Europe traumatized by two major attacks on Paris. France is signalling that it hopes to end sanctions on Russia over Ukraine by this summer. While the Minsk peace process is going all right, the motivation here is to ally more closely with Moscow against Muslim radicals in the wake of Russia’s successes against them in Syria.

Russia’s intervention in Syria last October was in many ways a desperate measure and a gamble. It is said that in mid-summer of 2015, Iranian special forces commander Qasem Soleimani flew to Moscow with a blunt message. The Syrian regime was going to fall if things went on the way they were going and Iran did not have the resources to stop it.

Vladimir Putin, still smarting from having lost Libya as a sphere of influence, was determined to stop the fall of Syria.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad has to to control a y-shaped area and set of transportation routes if it is to survive. The ‘Y’ is anchored at the bottom by Damascus, the capital. In its metropolitan area, given shifting population, live around 5 million Syrians who are afraid of the two major forces battling the regime, al-Qaeda (the Nusra Front) and Daesh (ISIS, ISIL).

The trunk of the ‘Y’ stretches up to Homs and then veers off to the left, to the key port city of Latakia. The right branch of the ‘Y’ goes up through Hama to Aleppo, a city of 4 million before the war, which is divided in half, with the west in the hands of the regime.

Controlling this huge ‘Y’ where 70% of Syrians live is a tall order. It is vulnerable at several key points, of which the rebels have attempted to take advantage.

1. Deraa province to the south of Damascus is largely Sunni and rural and its clans could sweep up and take the capital, with Jordanian, US and Saudi support. If that happened, game over.

2. The Army of Islam, backed by Saudi Arabia, has strong positions besieging the capital just to its north. If it could come down into Damascus, game over.

3. If the rebels could take and hold Homs and Qusayr in the middle of the ‘Y’, they could cut Damascus off from resupply by truck from the port of Latakia.

4. If the rebels, who took all of Idlib Province in the northwest last April, could move west from Idlib and take Latakia, they could cut Damascus off from its major port and deny it ammunition, arms, even some foodstuffs.

5. If the rebels can move from south of Aleppo to cut off the road from Hama and strangle West Aleppo, they could take all of the country’s largest city, making it difficult for the regime to survive.

Along this Y set of trunk roads, the most effective fighting force has been al-Qaeda in Syria, which reports to 9/11 mastermind Ayman al-Zawahiri. This affiliate, called the Support Front or the Nusra Front, is formally allied with other Salafi jihadis in the Army of Conquest coalition and is tactically allied with many small groups in what’s left of the Free Syrian Army. The CIA has sent medium weaponry, including T. O. W. anti-tank weapons to 30 “vetted” groups in the FSA, via Saudi Arabia. Many of these weapons have made their way into the hands of al-Qaeda and been used against regime tanks and armored vehicles to devastating effect.

So when Soleimani when to Moscow, it seemed that the road from Hama to West Aleppo had been lost and Aleppo would fall. Al-Qaeda had also made advances in the south, taking al-Sheikh Miskin just south of Damascus, and preparing for a push on the capital. Idlib had fallen and Latakia might well have been next.

So when Putin sent in his air force, it concentrated on protecting the red ‘Y’ in the map above. It mainly hit al-Qaeda, the primary threat to regime control of the Y, but also struck at Free Syrian Army groups backed by the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which were tactically allied with al-Qaeda. This move was necessary to defend the ‘Y’. It drew howls of protest from Washington, Ankara and Riyadh demanding to know why Russia wasn’t instead targeting Daesh/ ISIL.

The answer was simple. Except at Aleppo and at a point below Hama, Daesh for the most part posed little threat to the ‘Y’. Al-Qaeda and its allies were the big menace, so Putin concentrated on them.

Air support to a determined local ground force can be an effective strategy. It worked for Bill Clinton in Kosovo. It worked for George W. Bush in Afghanistan in 2001, when the US-backed Northern Alliance handily defeated the Taliban. It worked again in March-April 2003, when US air support to the Kurdish Peshmerga guerrillas, allowed them to defeat the Iraqi Baath army in Kirkuk, Mosul and elsewhere in the north.

And so this strategy has been working for Putin. He appears to have rearmed and retrained the Syrian Arab Army, which has new esprit de corps and is making significant headway for the first time in years. It is of course aided by Hizbullah, over from Lebanon, and by a small contingent of some 2000 Iranian spec ops forces (many of them actually Afghan).

So what has the Russian air force accomplished?

1. It allowed the reopening of the road from Hama to West Aleppo, ending the siege of that regime-held part of the city and pushing back the rebels from it.

2. It retook most of Latakia Province , safeguarding the port. Yesterday came the news that the major northern al-Qaeda-held town of Rabia had fallen to the government forces, meaning that Latakia is nearly 100% in government control. These advances into northern Latakia involved hitting Turkmen proxies of Turkey, which is why Turkey shot down a Russian plane last fall. Likely the next step will be to take back cities in Idlib like Jisr al-Shughour, which fell last spring to an al-Qaeda-led coalition, and which could be used as a launching pad for the taking of Latakia port.

3. It strengthened regime control of Hama and Homs, ensuring the supply routes south to Damascus.

4. It hit the Army of Islam as well as al-Qaeda and Daesh around Damascus, forcing the latter two to withdraw from part of the capital and killing Zahran Alloush, leader of the Army of Islam.

5. It hit al-Qaeda and FSA forces in Deraa Province and yesterday the key town of al-Sheikh Miskin fell to the Syrian Arab Army. This is a Deraa crossroads and its loss affects the rebels ability to maneuver in this province.

The Russian air force, in conjunction with Syrian troops and Hizbullah and a few Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps fighters has therefore profoundly braced regime control of the ‘Y’ where most Syrians live and along which the capital’s supplies flow. If in July through September it appeared that the regime could well fall, and quickly, now al-Assad’s minions are on the march, pushing back their opponents.

It shouldn’t need to be said, but I want to underline that the above is analysis, not advocacy. Be that as it may, in the past 4 months, Putin has begun winning in Syria, which means so has al-Assad. And the spillover effects on Russian diplomacy are huge.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 27 Jan 2016

Fitz

al-Nusra's large Aleppo deployment raises fears

BEIRUT – The Al-Nusra Front has made a major show of force in Aleppo, driving a large convoy through Syria’s second city before reinforcing its positions to ostensibly face a regime offensive, although activists have expressed their doubt over Islamist group’s intentions.

The Al-Qaeda affiliate on Tuesday evening released a video showing dozens of vehicles transporting armed men along a major thoroughfare in the rebel-held part of the city that is split between regime forces and the opposition.

"A huge convoy of approximately 200 vehicles, loaded with heavily armed Nusra fighters, roamed the streets and neighborhoods of Aleppo," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported .

The Islamist-friendly El Dorar news outlet reported that Nusra was deploying north of the city to confront a potential regime offensive, while the group itself merely said it was bolstering its fighting fronts.

Rumors have swirled that the regime intends to launch a campaign to relieve the sieges of Zahra and Nubl, two Shiite-populated villages north of Aleppo surrounded by Nusra and other rebels since mid-2012. However, no concrete reports have emerged on the matter.

Majid Abdelnour, a journalist in the Aleppo countryside, told the pro-opposition outlet Enab Baladi that the Nusra fighters had deployed near the Castello Road, a highway spanning the northern edges of the city that serves as a vital lifeline of supplies to its rebel-held sectors.

Meanwhile, other reports indicated that the Nusra fighters had also spread through neighborhoods that are not under regime-control, predominantly in eastern Aleppo.

Activists fear Nusra will "swallow Aleppo"

Amid the massive Nusra deployment in Aleppo, concerns have risen among residents that the jihadist group wants to consolidate control over the city, and not merely prepare to fight regime troops.

Activists speaking to Enab Baladi—who chose to remain anonymous out of fear for their safety—said they were worried about Nusra's true goals.

One of them told the outlet that he believes the Al-Qaeda affiliate, which is one of the most powerful groups in northern Syria, intends to "swallow Aleppo."

He explained that he became worried after he heard that Nusra arrested five civilians in Aleppo's Ansari neighborhood on Tuesday evening for "smoking narghile and watching a TV series" in a shop.

Meanwhile, another pro-rebel outlet spoke with local activists who said the timing Nusra chose to strengthen its presence in the city was inappropriate, and cast doubt on the claims that these columns and massed troops were sent to support the fronts.

Relief activist R.H., who preferred not to reveal his full name for security reasons, told Zaman al-Wasl that the military situation in Aleppo did not require such reinforcements.

"All the city of Aleppo's inhabitants know that the battle fronts against regime forces are cold and have seen no change for over three years," he said in an interview with the outlet's correspondent.

"The only danger threatening the city is the [potential] closure of the Castello Road by the regime advancing from Bashkoy in North Aleppo countryside."

"If what Al-Nusra Front says is true, the best thing for the group would be to reinforce the fronts in the countryside and not in the city," he added.

Abu Khalid, a fighter in one of the Free Syrian Army factions in the city, also expressed concern about Nusra's intentions.

"After the large reinforcements sent by Al-Nusra Front to the city of Aleppo, we have begun to expect they will begin fighting us at any moment, with or without an excuse."

"Over the past few days Nusra has set up a number of checkpoints in residential areas and deployed large numbers of masked militants at them."

"This can only point to one thing and that is that Nusra's reinforcements will not be for us but against us."

Nusra: We will only fight the regime

Zaman al-Wasl's correspondent also spoke to one of Al-Nusra Front's field commanders in the Aleppo area, who vehemently denied accusations regarding his groups' deployment.

"The reinforcements and their deployment in Aleppo are part of Nusra's army, which was supposed to reinforce its presence on Aleppo's fronts and in its countryside over three months ago," Abu Musab al-Shami claimed.

"However, the military developments that took place in southern Aleppo countryside delayed this," he explained, in reference to the recent regime offensive there backed by Iraqi Shiite militiamen.

"All the talk about Al-Nusra Front intending to fight our brothers in the other mujahed factions emanates from people who have made premature judgements against the Front," Shami insisted.

"They start rumors and hope they will come true but we in Al-Nusra Front confirm to everyone that we care most deeply that not one shot shall be fired by us except against the forces of the Nusairi regime [Nusairi is pejorative term for members of the Alawite sect] and it's militias."

In response to a question from Zaman al-Wasl's correspondent about the reason checkpoints were erected in residential areas, al-Shami said the nature of the checkpoints meant that they were not a threat to anyone.

"We have not set up [stop-and]-search points. They are guarding checkpoints [that were erected] to keep watch over the security of our bases and members, [to prevent] any potential attack by ISIS or the regime."

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 29 Jan 2016

ISIS is close to getting trapped East of Aleppo:

[IMG]

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 2 Feb 2016

Day One of the North Aleppo Offensive

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/0cD9NPWiFJQ

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 2 Feb 2016

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 3 Feb 2016

A very special flag to Angocachi

[IMG]

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 3 Feb 2016

Another map.

[IMG]

Amadis Thursday 4 Feb 2016

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/N8hQ9eF9riA

SAA launch Tochka (whilst Hizbullah watch - the title is wrong)

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 4 Feb 2016

My latest troll at the Guardian on this conflict:

http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/68046864

The Syria Analysis Thread

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