The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 23 Sep 2015

Fitz

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 28 Sep 2015

The Financial Times throws in the towel and concedes that there is no choice other than the Lion of Damascus.

Syria: Is there an alternative to Bashar al-Assad?

Prompted by Russian military intervention, an exodus of refugees into Europe and the failure of the US to build up moderate rebel forces, world leaders who until recently dismissed the idea of keeping Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in power now see little alternative, at least for the short-term.

President Barack Obama on Monday called for a “managed transition” in Syria that would leave Mr Assad temporarily at the helm. Britain’s David Cameron and French President François Hollande have made similar noises. But it is far from clear who could lead any transition in the conflict-riven country.

Is there any alternative to President Bashar al-Assad?

The short answer is no — but the question itself may be misleading. He may still hold the presidency, but Mr Assad is unlikely to be able to unite Syria. Even if foreign powers were willing to accept him and help his forces drive out the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, it is too late for him to regain legitimacy among Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, which has been subjected to sustained daily attack.

Meanwhile, Kurdish forces now control the country’s northeastern corner. They say they want to remain part of Syria but want more autonomy, and it is unclear whether Mr Assad could meet their demands.

Why are there no viable opposition leaders?

The opposition is fractured, made up of different ideological strains and rival groups that work to undermine each other.

The biggest issue today is the division between moderates and hardline Islamists that have grown in power. Even among the Islamists there are many disputes. Salafist forces such as Ahrar al-Sham want to rehabilitate their image in the west, bringing them into conflict with Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s powerful Syrian branch. Yet both are fighting Isis.

The rivalries began early in the uprising against the Syrian president. Foreign powers turned to long-time, well known political adversaries of Mr Assad outside the country when anti-regime demonstrations erupted in 2011. They had little to do with the protests and were quickly seen as out of touch by Syrians under attack from Assad forces, who watched them squabble at five-star hotels over posts in the internationally recognised Syrian National Coalition (SNC).

Some potential leaders did come to the fore, only to be knocked down by foreign powers. Moaz al-Khatib, a Sunni cleric from Damascus, was willing to meet Mr Assad and actually drew praise from some regime loyalists. He resigned within a year of taking leadership of the SNC, and it is widely believed Saudi Arabia and Qatar pushed him out — perhaps because he was critical of their own rights’ records.

Why can’t foreign backers agree on anyone?

The opposition’s main backers have vastly different aims, which translate into more chaos on the ground.

Western governments are tentative about involvement in Syria’s war and only want to work with ideologically moderate forces. But this sometimes creates a paradox: forces such as the moderate Southern Front, which controls an area near Jordan, cannot get more western backing because they are not seen as strong enough to fight jihadi forces. But without more aid, they cannot gain strength.

Meanwhile, Turkey and the Gulf states are funnelling cash and arms into the opposition and are happy to back Islamist groups — as long as they are loyal to them.

Is there someone to represent the opposition?

Ahrar al-Sham may be deemed too Islamist for some but analysts say it may be necessary to involve some similar groups in order to make sure any political deal has force on the ground. The group was part of a recently negotiated truce with Iran and Assad forces, and has shown interest in transition talks.

A potential figurehead could be someone like Manaf Tlass, a former regime insider whose 2012 defection caused a big stir. He rarely spoke to the media and moved to Paris after his defection, but, according to occasional media reports, has met intelligence or political figures.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 30 Sep 2015

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Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 30 Sep 2015

First day of air strikes:

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Fitz Thursday 1 Oct 2015

‘They were torturing to kill’: inside Syria’s death machine

Caesar, the Syrian military photographer who smuggled shocking evidence of torture out of Assad’s dungeons, tells his story for the first time

Caesar’s gruesome pictures of dead Syrian torture victims were exhibited at the United Nations in New York. Photograph: Lucas Jackson/Reuters

For two years, between 2011 and 2013, the former Syrian military photographer known only as Caesar used a police computer in Damascus to copy thousands of photographs of detainees who were tortured to death in Bashar al-Assad’s jails. The media have run numerous stories about the man who managed to smuggle astonishing evidence of crimes against humanity out of the country – at great risk to himself and his family – but he had never been interviewed.

...

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 4 Oct 2015

Kobresia Sunday 4 Oct 2015

some good post bombing vids

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/RcgIu22aNLM

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/EahGjmToXic

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/G6ItpMsAt0w

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/15POr6uff24

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 4 Oct 2015

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 7 Oct 2015

Cruise Missiles launched from the Caspian Sea that travel 1500km over land to hit ISIS targets in celebration of Putin's bday.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/iMasnaAf_H4

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 7 Oct 2015

SAA tank gets BTFO courtesy of an American TOW:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Jn1vN5Bz0E

The Syria Analysis Thread

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