The Syria Analysis Thread

King of the Kurds, Barzani, has a different take on Erdogan-Kurdish relations in Syria...

"Barzani refuted claims that there is a lack of support from the government in his interview with Taraf Daily, and said that it is not true that Turkey has only marginally contributed to the coalition, in response to the question: "Why did the Turks do nothing."

"They sent us trucks of bullets and howitzers at the onset of the fighting, followed by a delivery of military clothes and other things," Barzani said, adding that Turkey also provided major support in the matter of taking refugees. He also said that Turkey has provided financial assistance to the KRG, which he said was $500 million last year.

"Another [$500 million] is on the way," Barzani said. He continued by praising Turkey's assistance: "[T]he biggest and most apparent gesture from the Turkish government has been its facilitation of the passage of peshmerga forces through its territory."

Ankara ensured secure and problem-free access to Kobani in the face of criticism during the battle for Kobani. Barzani said: "The efforts of Turkey cannot be disregarded. If Kobani was rescued, the Turkish president and prime minister have definitely played their part."
http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/...e-in-liberation-of-kobani-says-krg-pm-barzani

On the Kurds, Erdogan is taking orders from Tony Hayward (ex-BP) over at Genel.*

Erdogan has been arming and financing the Kurds against IS. If Erdogan wanted to stop the formation of a Kurdistan in Kobane, why did he allow Peshmerga to cross Turkish territory to reinforce Kobane after it had fallen to IS. Furthermore, the latest YPG push into IS territory has been piggybacked by FSA units, and the FSA is Erdogan's project.

The territory the Turks are talking about occupying (by name) in Syria is the strip west of Kobane and east of Mare (north of Aleppo). It's currently IS territory, and Turkey would be invading IS to occupy it. The reason they'd do this is because IS has recently launched a successful push into FSA/Ahrar Al Sham territory north of Aleppo and west of Kobane that, until US airstrikes came to the rescue, threatened to cut off and scuttle the FSA/Ahrar Al Sham offensive on Assad-held Aleppo.

When Erdogan says he won't allow a Kurdish state he protests too hard. The Turkish military, despite his attempts at purging it, is still loaded with vehemently anti-Kurdish officers and generals who can't stand the sight of Marxist YPG flags raised in Tal Abyad. To avoid a coup attempt, he has to reassure them that he's not about to do exactly what he's about to do.

Cro-Magnon

*Rothschilds afoot
Genel Energy was created in 2011 as a result of the reverse acquisition of Turkish Genel Enerji by Tony Hayward led investment company Vallares. [1] Vallares was set up by Tony Hayward, financier Nat Rothschild and banker Julian Metherell.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genel_Energy

The Gulf Monarchs want to arm the Kurds to fight IS (as Turkey already does by their and Barzani's admission) but the United States dictates their foreign policy like the Judeo-Yankee puppets they are and won't allow them to for fear the Kurds won't suck so reliantly on Uncle Sam's air force tit. The US also won't allow Jordan, Saudi, or other Arab pilots to bomb "IS targets"... oil and gas Anglo-American companies want the contracts to if only they can pry IS hands off them but the GCC would love to light up in a ball of fire.

"US blocks attempts by Arab allies to fly heavy weapons directly to Kurds to fight Islamic State
Middle East allies accuse Barack Obama and David Cameron of failing to show strategic leadership in fight against Isil, as MPs could be given vote on whether to bomb Syria

The United States has blocked attempts by its Middle East allies to fly heavy weapons directly to the Kurds fighting Islamic State jihadists in Iraq, The Telegraph has learnt.

Some of America’s closest allies say President Barack Obama and other Western leaders, including David Cameron, are failing to show strategic leadership over the world’s gravest security crisis for decades.

They now say they are willing to “go it alone” in supplying heavy weapons to the Kurds, even if means defying the Iraqi authorities and their American backers, who demand all weapons be channelled through Baghdad.

High level officials from Gulf and other states have told this newspaper that all attempts to persuade Mr Obama of the need to arm the Kurds directly as part of more vigorous plans to take on Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) have failed. The Senate voted down one attempt by supporters of the Kurdish cause last month.

The officials say they are looking at new ways to take the fight to Isil without seeking US approval.

“If the Americans and the West are not prepared to do anything serious about defeating Isil, then we will have to find new ways of dealing with the threat,” said a senior Arab government official. “With Isil making ground all the time we simply cannot afford to wait for Washington to wake up to the enormity of the threat we face.”

The Peshmerga have been successfully fighting Isil, driving them back from the gates of Erbil and, with the support of Kurds from neighbouring Syria, re-establishing control over parts of Iraq’s north-west.
But they are doing so with a makeshift armoury. Millions of pounds-worth of weapons have been bought by a number of European countries to arm the Kurds, but American commanders, who are overseeing all military operations against Isil, are blocking the arms transfers.

One of the core complaints of the Kurds is that the Iraqi army has abandoned so many weapons in the face of Isil attack, the Peshmerga are fighting modern American weaponry with out-of-date Soviet equipment.

At least one Arab state is understood to be considering arming the Peshmerga directly, despite US opposition.

The US has also infuriated its allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states, by what they perceive to be a lack of clear purpose and vacillation in how they conduct the bombing campaign. Other members of the coalition say they have identified clear Isil targets but then been blocked by US veto from firing at them.

“There is simply no strategic approach,” one senior Gulf official said. “There is a lack of coordination in selecting targets, and there is no overall plan for defeating Isil.”

Britain is moving closer to expanding its role in the war. The Government on Wednesday gave its strongest indication yet that MPs will be given a new vote on whether to bomb Isil in Syria.

Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, said it was “illogical” that British planes were able to hit extremists in Iraq but not across the border.

Any decision to bomb in Syria would have to be approved by MPs. In 2013, the Prime Minister lost a vote for British military action in Syria. However, Mr Fallon said: “It is a new Parliament and I think new Members of Parliament will want to think very carefully about how we best deal with Isil, and the illogicality of Isil not respecting the borderlines.”

Mr Fallon suggested that a bombing campaign could be mounted in revenge for the terror attacks in Tunisia if a link could be proved between the killer and Isil in Libya. Britain would only take military action in Libya “where we think there is an imminent threat, a very direct to British lives or, for example, to British hostages”, he said.

Senior Whitehall sources did not distance themselves from Mr Fallon’s comments but insisted there was no immediate prospect of military action.

The Telegraph understands that Mr Cameron is concerned that Labour might force the Government into another defeat over Syria."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...directly-to-Kurds-to-fight-Islamic-State.html

Just as I've stated all along, the presence of ISIS is being used to subtly invade Syria, this time with the Turks doing it to kill two birds with one stone: get rid of the Kurds and their para-state and further push the Assad Regime back towards Latakia and Damascus.

Turkey agrees plan for 'Isis-free zone' along Syrian border

Turkey and the US have agreed on the outlines of a plan to drive Islamic State out of a strip of land along the Turkish-Syrian border, according to reports , in a landmark deal that will draw Turkey further into Syria’s civil war and looks likely to increase the intensity of the US air war against Isis.

Turkey doesn't bomb IS = Turkey supports IS against Assad.
Turkey bombs IS = Turkey is invading Assad