The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 12 Dec 2013

US-Backed Syrian "Rebel" Commander Chased Out Of Country By Al Qaeda

Syria may be old news as any escalation has been put on hold at least until next summer, but the hilarity resulting from the bungled US foreign policy intervention in the country lingers. The latest chapter in John Kerry's book of "Diplomacy for Idiots" is the case of General Salim Adris, a so-called moderate the top Western-backed commander of the Free Syrian Army, who was literally run out of the country by the more extremist, Al Qaeda based factions among the Syrian CIA armed and Qatar funded "rebel" forces.

As the WSJ eloquently puts it, " Islamist fighters ran the top Western-backed rebel commander in Syria out of his headquarters, and he fled the country , U.S. officials said Wednesday." Any references to brave Sir Robin are purely accidental. It got better when the same Al Qaeda fighters "took over key warehouses holding U.S. military gear for moderate fighters in northern Syria over the weekend." In other words, as we repeatedly forecast over the summer, the US is now once again arming Al Qaeda fighters with weapons that sooner or later will be used against the US, at a time of the CIA's choosing.

As for the details of "patriotic" Gen. Idris' humiliating departure from Syria, and the even more humiliating raid of US military gear, we read on from the WSJ :

Another bang up job by the State Department:

A quick primer on how brave the US "loyalists" in Syria are to both the cause, and to US equipment:

In other words, one rebel faction essentially handed over US weapons to another rebel faction. Just add spin. Not surprisingly, the CIA had no comment:

Longface Friday 13 Dec 2013

Salim Idriss is a joke, he actually signs his decrees as Gen. Engineer Dr. Salim Idriss.

Bob Dylan Roof Sunday 15 Dec 2013

UN Report: Chemical Weapons Used Against Assad Forces

Stubby Tuesday 17 Dec 2013

heavy fighting in east ghouta atm

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCltNm_enRPRP2yYZ1jZs-g/videos

Schmeisser Sunday 5 Jan 2014

For the last two days there has been a rebel offensive against my favorite Muslims of late, the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham. It's mostly FSA and Ahrar ash-Sham now attacking ISIS. Jabhat al-Nusra is also involved, but these are actually FSA brigades that pledged bayah to JaN. It's notable that they launched the attack while many of ISIS fight in al Anbar, Iraq. I don't expect ISIS to recover from this in Syria.

Bob Dylan Roof Sunday 5 Jan 2014

Is the ISIS independent of Saudi influence?

Schmeisser Monday 6 Jan 2014

Yes. Most of their money probably comes from wealthy Gulf businessmen but not Saudi gov. The Saudis are scared of them and their "Islamic Front" is largely built to co-opt and curb the influence of ISIS. ISIS have long maintained that Turkish intelligence also work a lot of influence in the Islamic Front. ISIS basically originated from al-Qaeda in Iraq, but it's not actually an al-Qaeda affiliate as Jabhat al-Nusra is al-Qaeda's Syria affiliate. The Islamic State is pretty well its own entity. It's very popular internationally and apparently well-financed by donors, but it's looking like foreign influence is beating it out in Syria now. The SRF "Syrian Revolutionary Front" started the mass coordinated attack followed by Islamic Front groups with Ahrar ash-Sham being the most successful. SRF is just American front group that ISIS people consider one of "McCain's Gangs."

Apparently now Nusra is backing up ISIS in many sectors except Raqqa saying that an attack on ISIS will be considered an attack on them. There has been a lot of talk over the day saying Nusra will be targeted next by Ahrar and IF and FSA. That's really doubtful due to JaN's local popularity.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 6 Jan 2014

Syrian opposition turns on al-Qaida-affiliated Isis jihadists near Aleppo

The most serious clashes yet between the Syrian opposition and a prominent al-Qaida group erupted in the north of the country on Friday as a tribal revolt against the same organisation continued to rage in Iraq 's Anbar province.

Opposition groups near Aleppo attacked militants from the Islamic State of Iraq in Syria (Isis) in two areas, al-Atareb and Andana, which are both strongholds of the fundamentalist Sunni organisation.

Battles also erupted in the Salahedin district of Aleppo itself, where both groups had reluctantly co-existed during recent months as Isis had imposed its hardline influence on parts of the city. Several hundred miles east, Isis remains in control of parts of the Iraqi cities of Fallujah and Ramadi, having raided mosques, sacked police stations and freed prisoners in moves reminiscent of the darkest days of Iraq's insurgency, in which much of Anbar had been lost to al-Qaida.

Isis is the latest incarnation of the same ruthless group that held sway in Anbar before the Awakening Movement of tribal militias ousted it. The Awakening was led at the time by powerful local sheikhs and backed by the occupying US military and was credited with freeing both cities from the grip of the jihadists.

But over the past year, security there and elsewhere in Iraq has gradually ebbed as the war in Syria has intensified. In the past week, revitalised Isis insurgents stormed into both cities soon after the Iraqi military withdrew from a violent standoff with local tribes.

The same group has been at the vanguard of an increasing radicalisation of the anti-Assad opposition in northern Syria. Its members cross freely between Anbar and the eastern deserts of Syria as the insurgencies in each country steadily seep in to each other.

Tribal figures in Anbar said they were continuing to mount attacks on Isis and were determined to block the Islamists' efforts to re-establish a foothold there.

"Never will we allow them to return to our towns," said a senior sheikh from the outskirts of Ramadi. "We don't trust the Shia regime of Maliki and we don't trust al-Qaida. We will fight for our futures. No one else has our benefit at heart."

However, opposition leaders told the Guardian that with military momentum at a crawl, they have little option but to try to oust Isis.

"We have surrounded them in Andana," said a leader of Ahrar al-Sham, an Islamic group within the opposition. "We have told their foreigners that they must come and join us, within 24 hours, or face being killed."

In al-Atareb, several dozen fighters, including Isis members, are believed to have been killed in the clashes. The group is thought have at least 10,000 members in northern Syria, many of them foreigners from elsewhere in the Sunni Islamic world, including up to 1,000 Europeans.

Isis has kidnapped more than 30 foreign aid-workers and journalists in the north, along with scores more Syrians. The French medical aid agency Médecins Sans Frontières said five of its members had been taken from a house in northern Syria on Thursday. It gave no details about the identities of the captives, or where they were taken from.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 6 Jan 2014

Four more Muslims from Bosnia and Serbia have gone to paradise due to the infighting between the various forces opposing Assad.

Musab Hadis from Bosnia
[?IMG]

Ebu Bilal from Zenica, Bosnia
[?IMG]

Ebu Ismail from Teslic, Bosnia
[?IMG]

Hamza Alisic
[?IMG]

Angocachi Monday 6 Jan 2014

This is right.
Al Qaeda and its allies get money and support from wealthy dissidents in the GCC, Bin Laden types opposed to the monarchs and juntas.
The GCC & NATO have thrown their support primarily behind the FSA, but with the FSA's losing strength relative to Al Qaeda/Al Nusra the Saudi government concocted the Islamic Front, which is now proving its true purpose... to foil the establishment of a Shariah state in Sunni inhabited Syria.

Which was supposed to have poured into Anbar from Syria, prompting accusations at Assad from the Iraqi and American government of not doing enough to stop Sunni Jihadists from crossing the Syria-Iraq border.
The insistence that Al Qaeda is foreign wherever it gets a foothold is fed by the belief in its adversaries that such a characteristic will delegitimize it or make it unpopular. Their intention is to say, 'This rebellion is not genuine, it's foreigners' or 'Al Qaeda doesn't speak for the rebellion, it's foreigners'.
The truth is that it's much like the international guerrilla revolution that proceeded it... the Communists. Al Qaeda's a mix of foreigners and natives, in every theater they have.

They are both Al Qaeda and neither are independent of Al Qaeda command. Al Qaeda in Iraq refused to cease its activity in Syria, though Zawahiri intended for Al Nusra to be Al Qaeda's sole branch in Syria.
I think that might be a slick play by Zawahiri however. If Al Nusra fails, Al Qaeda in Iraq still has its foot in Syria. If Al Qaeda in Iraq gets it foot pushed out of Syria, Zawahiri still has Al Nusra.

That's all true.

However, it's Saud's money behind this Ahrar ash Sham campaign and Saud wants Al Nusra gone. In fact, if they can crush Al Nusra, they can dissolve the Islamic Front and go back to the secularist exiles and former regime Sunnis in the FSA that they were backing to start.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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