The Syria Analysis Thread

simulacra Friday 15 Nov 2013

Jihadists call for reinforcements as Syrian regime advances on Aleppo

Jihadist groups near Aleppo have called for reinforcements to fight the largest regime advance on the city in a 16-month siege, in a looming confrontation likely to test the rebel hardliners who dictate terms in Syria 's far north.

Clashes have taken place in the south-eastern sector of the city, which has remained firmly in opposition hands since rebel groups stormed into eastern Aleppo in mid-July 2012. While the showdown is not yet thought to be the start of a decisive push, it has sharpened focus on the prevalence of extremist groups and how they found their way to the battlefield.

The two main al-Qaida -linked groups – the Islamic State of Iraq in Syria and Jabhat al-Nusra – are straining to hold off a regime push past the Aleppo airport to a military base, known as Base 80. A successful advance beyond this point would threaten rebel supply lines to Turkey, which for more than a year have funnelled militants, weapons, ammunition and food into the far north, in effect turning the area into an emirate within a crumbling nation state.

Now, the first significant regime counterattack is taking shape. Jihadists have allied with mainstream opposition units to battle Syrian troops whose ranks are bolstered with large numbers of militants from a militia comprised mainly of Iraqi militants, called Abu Fadl al-Abbas.

The clashes around Aleppo mark one of the few times in the two-and-a-half-year civil war that major sectarian protagonists have squared up to one another; the rebel-allied al-Qaida groups adopt an extremist Sunni ideology, while the Iraqis are fighting for Assad in the name of Shia Islam.

Al-Qaida's two proxies in the Syrian conflict are comprised mostly of foreigners. Many have journeyed from Iraq, buoyed by the sectarian insurgency again raging there, while others have chosen a simpler path through the Turkish border only 40 miles (60km) to the north. Jihadists, in particular, have taken advantage of the relatively easy passage from Turkey to Syria. The ease of access continues to fuel a view in the rebel-held north that Ankara is easing the passage of al-Qaida groups, who they have identified as the most potent arm of the opposition and most likely to threaten regime power bases.

"How else can you explain it?" said a rebel leader in northern Syria, Haji Abu-Abdullah. "It is an open gate for all-comers. We are losing, not winning, the war because of Turkey."

A second rebel leader in the Aleppo countryside agreed: "With every month that passes we are losing this war. There is clearly a policy to help al-Qaida make gains, and to make it difficult for us to hold on to what we have."

Ankara hotly denies this claim. A spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry said: "We do not support or tolerate any radical terrorist groups. It is inconceivable that a country that has suffered from terrorism as much and for as long as we have could do such a thing. We view these radical groups as a betrayal of the revolution."

simulacra Friday 15 Nov 2013

Hezbollah will carry on backing Bashar al-Assad, says leader Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon 's Hezbollah movement, has vowed to keep his forces in Syria as long as necessary to support of the president, Bashar al-Assad .

In a rare public appearance in Beirut's southern suburbs, Nasrallah told supporters on Thursday that Hezbollah was defending Syria which in turn supported "the resistance" against Israel .

"Our presence there is justified," he said as hundreds of thousands of people marked the Shia festival of Ashoura.

Nasrallah usually speaks only via video link for fear of assassination by Israel, but for a second day running he appeared in public flanked by armed bodyguards – likely testimony to the importance of the occasion and to his defiant message.

"We have said on several occasions that the presence of our soldiers on Syrian soil is to defend … Syria, which supports the resistance [against Israel]," AFP quoted him as saying. Hezbollah was defending Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, he said.

Longface Sunday 17 Nov 2013

The Druze Militias of Southern Syria

Introduction
Compared to how much has been written on the Sunni-Alawite dynamics in the Syrian civil war, little analysis exists on the Druze aspect of the conflict. This study hopes to rectify the deficiency by considering the nature of Druze militias operating in the south of Syria, specifically in Suwayda, Deraa and Damascus governorates where Druze populations are concentrated.
The Principle of Self-Defense
The most prominent name for Druze militias appears to be “Jaysh al-Muwahhideen” (“Army of the Monotheists/Unitarians”), echoing the Druze’s self-description as “muwahhideen” emphasizing the strict unity of God. Most notably, here is a video from the beginning of this year of a statement from a “Jaysh al-Muwahhideen” militia in Jabal al-Arab (Mountain of the Arabs), also known as “Jabal ad-Druze”: a mountainous area of Suwayda governorate primarily inhabited by Druze.

Click the link for more.

SweetLeftFoot Monday 18 Nov 2013

The Battle of the Slavonic Corps.

A belter of a read

http://www.interpretermag.com/the-last-battle-of-the-slavonic-corps/

Longface Tuesday 19 Nov 2013

Syria troops seize strategic town of Qara

Syria troops have captured the village of Qara in the mountainous Qalamoun region along a key supply route between Damascus and Homs.
The capture of the strategic area on Tuesday comes days after pro-Assad forces launched an offensive against the town near the Lebanese border.
"After three days of fighting, the Syrian army has taken full control of Qara," a Syrian military source told AFP news agency, adding that a "large number" of rebel fighters were killed.
State media SANA also quoted a military source as saying that the army "eliminated terrorists" last gatherings and destroyed their weapons".
There was no immediate comment from rebels, who use the region around Qara to cross over from Lebanon. But regional news channel Al Mayadeen broadcast images of a reporter walking with Syrian soldiers through Qara's empty streets.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group, said that the al-Nusra Front, a rebel group, had announced its withdrawal from Qara and "promised to be back soon".
The fighting in Qara, which is about 100km north of the capital, forced at least 1,700 families across the border into Lebanon, which is already hosting more than 800,000 Syrian refugees and has suffered from rising unrest linked to the Syrian conflict next door.
The UN refugee agency UNHCR estimates at least 6,000 people have fled to the Lebanese town of Arsal, near the border, since last Friday.
"Refugees have told us that they spent days living in underground shelters before deciding to flee," said Adrian Edwards, a spokesman for the UN refugee agency.
The Syrian civil war has claimed an estimated 120,000 lives and generated the biggest refugee crisis in two decades, raising fears that the conflict could spill over into volatile neighbouring states like Lebanon and Iraq.

SweetLeftFoot Tuesday 19 Nov 2013

Looks like Qalamoun is shaping as the really big fight.

If Assad and co can take that then they can happily leave the jiahdis in north to be dealt with in due course and concentrate on getting Aleppo back (which they should be able to).

I suspect if Qalamoun falls Assad will spend the winter working to bring various "FSA" type units back into the fold to fight the jihadis.

Fitz Tuesday 19 Nov 2013

4 Syrian generals among 31 dead in rebel bomb attack (VIDEO)

Published time: November 17, 2013 21:16
Edited time: November 18, 2013 02:40

[IMG]

A rebel bomb attack killed 31 Syrian military troops on an army base near Damascus on Sunday.

Four generals were among those killed. The attack came amid a major regime offensive against rebel positions around Damascus and Aleppo, AFP reported.

" Three generals and a brigadier-general were among 31 troops killed in a bomb attack that caused a building in the army transport base in Harasta to collapse,' ' Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdul Rahman said.

The rebel group Direh al-Aasmeh (Shield of Damascus) brigade - which is part of the Western-backed Free Syrian Army - has claimed responsibility for the attack, posting a video of the blast on YouTube. The video shows the military building collapsing.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gkat0uyO7CA

"The timing of the attack is significant” since government troops have only just regained several rebel strongholds in the area, Rahman added.

The government forces were reportedly in the midst of an offensive in the town of Qara, located north of the capital near the border with Lebanon. “ Warplanes bombarded the town heavily yesterday (Saturday). Regime troops are trying to storm it and to drive the rebels out ,” Rahman said.

"There is speculation that rebels could have infiltrated the military base, as the explosive device was probably placed "either inside or beneath the building in a tunnel, ” he continued.

Ukrainian journalist Ankhar Kochneva confirmed the attack on her blog. Kochneva was in Harasta when she heard the blast and felt the building she was in shake. She described the blast as a very large one, with many dead and wounded.

The two-year conflict has already killed more than 100,000 people and displaced more than one million refugees. Syria’s economy has lost an estimated US$100 billion during the war - the equivalent of two years of normal production, according to Syrian Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil.

Moscow and Washington say they are committed to bringing both sides of the conflict to the negotiating table at the Geneva-2 peace conference. An earlier set of talks in Geneva broke up last year after just one day.

SweetLeftFoot Wednesday 20 Nov 2013

IT is WSJ but interesting like on Georgian connections here

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303309504579181962177007316

SweetLeftFoot Tuesday 3 Dec 2013

As predicted, the slow but sure return of the non jihadi Sunni to the state to fight ISIS begins ... Assad only needs to let them bleed over winter and they'll be desperate to join back up for spring.

Idriss didn’t demand as a precondition that President Bashar al-Assad resign before negotiations begin. Instead, he said, Assad’s departure should come “at the end of negotiations.” This position was echoed by Monzer Akbik , a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Council, the moderate rebels’ political arm.
Idriss stressed the threat posed by the al-Qaeda affiliate known as the “ Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ,” or ISIS. He said that the group was “very dangerous for the future of Syria” and that, after Assad’s departure, the Free Syrian Army would be ready to join the regular Syrian army in fighting them .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...013450-5b9d-11e3-a49b-90a0e156254b_story.html

SweetLeftFoot Monday 9 Dec 2013

http://www.vice.com/read/syrian-jihadist-selfies-tell-us-a-lot-about-their-war

Some genuine magic in there.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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