The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 10 Jun 2013

Angocachi President Camacho Stubby Mike SteamshipTime Roland

There's a bit of a lull post-Qusair as Syrian forces gather to move towards Aleppo.

Balkan Militants Join Syria's Rebel Cause

NOVI PAZAR, Serbia -- Eldar Kundakovic was fighting to free Syrian rebels from prison in May when he was killed by a hand grenade.

Unlike most militants battling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, he was not from Syria or a nearby Arab country.

Kundakovic came from Novi Pazar in Serbia's mainly Bosniak Muslim region of Sandzak.

His death notice, posted on the Internet by Syrian rebels, calls attention to a growing trend: young Muslims from the Balkans are traveling to Syria to join the rebel cause.

The journey from the Balkans to the Middle East has been made by Muslims from Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania.

Compared to thousands of Lebanese Shi'ite Hizballah militants bolstering Assad's forces, the number of Balkan fighters with Syrian rebels is small -- no more than several hundred.

In most cases, Balkan militants in Syria first embraced Salafism -- the Islamic fundamentalist movement that includes Al-Qaeda jihadists.

Salafist leaders in the Balkans deny recruiting or transporting Balkan militants to Syria. They say those who join Syrian rebels do so as individuals.

But Resad Plojovic, deputy leader of Sandzak's Muftiate, said he thinks "some organizations and individuals" are recruiting Balkan Muslims.

"There are centers or individuals who probably have connections with certain organizations, and they are motivating people," he says. "They also may know ways to transport them to the warzone. Let's be frank. Many here do not even know where Syria is. They cannot know how to go there and get involved in all that is happening there."

Kundakovic's father said that he last spoke with his son by telephone when he crossed into Syria from Turkey in late March.

Esad Kundakovic says his son immediately joined a rebel unit with about 30 fighters from Sandzak.

According to Mina Jovicic, a friend of Kundakovic in Novi Pazar, the young man was radicalized before going to Syria.

"He entered religion abruptly and then he started attending lectures and hanging out with people who talked about it often," she said.

Anel Grbovic is a journalist from Novi Pazar who was Kundakovic's high-school classmate.

He maintains that most jihadists from Sandzak distanced themselves from Serbia's two official Islamic communities before traveling to Syria:

"The fact is, there are illegal organizations recruiting people here," he says. "The fact is, there are houses where they come together. The fact is, there are facilities where they conduct their religious rituals -- which mean they exclude themselves from the mosque. That means they exclude themselves from the system of the Islamic community and are more easily influenced by some individuals or organizations."

In Kosovo and Macedonia, militants who have fought alongside Syrian rebels said that they wanted to help "Sunni brothers" fight Assad's regime.

One fighter from Macedonia said he hooked up with Syrian rebels via an intermediary in Vienna.

Suspicion falls upon Salafists as recruiters because Salafism is the root-ideology of Al-Qaeda and its affiliates -- including the rebel Al-Nusra Front in Syria, which is considered a terrorist group by Washington.

Bosnia-Herzegovina has the strongest Salafist presence in the Balkans due to aid and investments by Saudi Arabians who are members of the fundamentalist sect.
Tellingly, many Bosnian fighters in Syria have joined Al-Nusra Front.

Relatives of those Bosnians claim that Nusret Imamovic, the leader of the predominantly Salafist Bosnian village of Gornja Maoca, was their recruiter. Imamovic refuses to be interviewed about the allegations.

Salafists established themselves in Bosnia-Herzegovina during the 1992-1995 Balkan conflict when foreign jihadists arrived to help Bosnian Muslims fight against Serb and Bosnian-Serb forces.

Some foreign Salafist fighters stayed in Bosnia after the war. Financial support for reconstruction also poured in from Saudi Arabian Salafists, strengthening their Balkan foothold.

Mike Tuesday 11 Jun 2013

A 14 or 15 year old man killed for blasphemy in front of his mother by Islamists in Aleppo. This is not very good press for the rebels. Even the NY Times is having trouble spinning it against Assad:

Syrian Teenager’s Public Death Reveals Growing Anger as Civil War Continues

The teenager’s name was Muhammad al-Qatta, and he was 14 years old when witnesses said radical Islamists in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo pulled him from his coffee kiosk on Sunday and later executed him in a public square.

Muhammad had left his house to close up his kiosk, where his work supported his family, his mother said. When someone approached him looking for a free cup of coffee, the teenager uttered the phrase that cast him among the victims of the war’s growing depravity.

“He was talking to this guy and told him, ‘I don’t want to lend you anything,’ ” the teenager’s father quoted him as saying.

“If Muhammad, peace be upon him, were to come to this earth right now, I would still not lend a cup of coffee to anyone unless they pay for it,” the teenager said.

Three men with long hair, wearing long beards and the robes favored by ultraconservatives, overheard the exchange. They accused the teenager of insulting the prophet, told him to leave the kiosk and then took him away in the car. When they returned an hour later, Muhammad bore the marks of a beating. In a square, they covered his head with his shirt, a makeshift blindfold, as if he were “some big shot,” his mother said.

She watched from her balcony, as hundreds of people gathered around. A resident of the neighborhood, Abu Abdo, heard what the men said. Addressing the “respected people of Aleppo,” they warned that cursing God or the Prophet Muhammad was a sin, saying it would be “punished this way.”

The teenager’s father heard the shots. His wife told him that the men had killed their son.

[...]

Is that blasphemy to speak that way in Islam? RT is reporting the young man's words slightly differently:

Syrian rebels execute teenage boy for ‘heresy’ - report (GRAPHIC PHOTO)
An al-Qaeda-affiliated opposition group has allegedly executed a teenage boy in Syria in front of his family, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports. The boy was shot by the group for supposedly blaspheming.

15-year-old Mohammad Qataa was taken hostage by the extremist group and was then summarily executed in the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday night. Pro-opposition group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) released a photo of the boy with bullet wounds in both his face and neck.

The SOHR said witnesses claim Qataa got into an argument at a coffee stand where he worked in the Sh’ar neighborhood of Aleppo. He was overheard saying: "Even if the Prophet Mohammad comes down (from heaven), I will not become a believer."

[...]

This would have to be sectarian in nature, Alawite versus Sunni or something, right?

SweetLeftFoot Tuesday 11 Jun 2013

Not necessarily. You have to remember that in many parts of Syria, especially Aleppo, Islam wasn't a huge thing. What would have been acceptable 18 months ago is not under the bullshit can't get a root failed engineering student jihadi way of looking at things.

Mike Wednesday 12 Jun 2013

Al Jazeera reporting 60, other outlets 30, Shia killed by rebels near Deir al-Zour.

Reports of 'massacre' in eastern Syria

British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says at least 60 Shia Muslims killed by rebels near Deir al-Zour.

Last Modified: 12 Jun 2013 17:06

Syrian rebels have attacked a village in the country's east, killing dozens of Shia Muslims, activists said.

A Syrian government official on Wednesday denounced the attack that occurred a day earlier, saying it was a “massacre'' of civilians.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 60 people were killed in the village of Hatla in the oil-rich province of Deir al-Zour, bordering Iraq.

A video supplied by the Observatory showed masked fighters shouting, “Here are the Mujahidin [Islamist fighters] celebrating entering the homes of the rejectionists, the Shias.” The authenticity of the video could not be independently verified.

The fighters added that they “burned the homes” of the Shia residents.

The reported killings highlight the sectarian nature of Syria's conflict that has killed more than 94,000 people, according to the UN. Both sides in the fighting have been accused of abuses, with the UN saying that war crimes are a "daily reality" in Syria.

Thousands of rebels took part in the attack and at least 10 of them were killed in the fighting, said the Observatory.

In Damascus, a government official told the AP news agency that the rebels “carried out a massacre against villagers in which older people and children were killed".

Opposition sources told Reuters news agency that "agents" of President Bashar al-Assad had been trying to recruit and arm fighters for his cause, and the Observatory claimed most of the dead were pro-Assad Shia militiamen.

The fighting in Deir al-Zour came a week after Syrian troops, backed by Lebanon's Shia Hezbollah group, captured the strategic town of Qusayr near the Lebanese border after nearly three weeks of fierce battles that killed dozens of troops, rebels and Hezbollah members.

Mike Wednesday 12 Jun 2013

Mostly impotent rage from disunited Lebanese Sunnis. Hezbollah really demonstrates what unity, organization, and determination can achieve.

Misleadingly embedded in this article is an image of a Turkish protest.

For Lebanon’s Sunnis, growing rage at Hezbollah over role in Syria

Elsewhere,

An “anti-sectarian” demonstration against Hezbollah in central Beirut gathered a smattering of attendees from Lebanon’s liberal parties Sunday. But Jamaa al-Islamiya, a Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Islamist group, estimated that the rally it organized in Sidon drew 10,000. A carnival atmosphere permeated the crowd, which included families and young children, and cotton candy sellers meandered about. But anger was not far from the surface.

“From Sidon to Qusair , to Aleppo, we salute!” the chants rose into the evening air from the packed bleachers as the demonstrators expressed their solidarity with their fellow Sunnis in Syria. “Now Bashar al-Assad and his Hezbollah militias are preparing for an attack on Aleppo. It will be their cemetery!” one speaker said to a roar from the crowd.

Abedelrahman Badie, a 20-year-old Sunni carrying a black flag bearing the words “God is Great,” said he had come to protest against Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria, which he said also spelled danger for Sunnis in Lebanon.

“We need to be armed, because otherwise we will be killed,” he said. “We have to be ready, we don’t know when [Hezbollah] will turn their guns on us here. We used to think we had strength, but now we’ve realized how weak we’ve become. We need to unite.”

But the prospect appears unlikely. Though the rally was described in the Lebanese press as organized by Jamaa al-Islamiya and Assir, the Sidon sheikh was notably absent, with rumors of a falling-out between the cleric and the Islamist group.

Mike Wednesday 12 Jun 2013

More headlines from Washington Post:

Syrian rebels warn lack of weapons for moderates will hand victory to extremists on both sides

Obama administration keeps wringing its hands over mission impossible, i.e. arming the FSA without arming the Salafis.

Officials: Top Obama aides split on arming rebels as they gather at White House to talk Syria

Gratuitous reference to dubious chem weapon use by unknown party.

Iran emerging as victor in Syrian conflict

By Liz Sly. Seems like Iran is always winning as a result of US actions in the Middle East.

‘America talked the talk while Iran walked the walk’

Iran, though it is isolated , is still outmaneuvering the United States in the Syrian conflict that matters for them both. The Washington Post’s Liz Sly reports that Hezbollah’s entrance into the war on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signals the degree to which Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsor and Assad’s ally, “is emerging as the biggest victor in the wider regional struggle for influence that the Syrian conflict has become.”

Hezbollah and Iran have been helping Assad’s forces to regain the momentum in the war, making it look more likely that he could ultimately prevail over the rebels. If and when the war ends, it’s increasingly plausible that Iran will emerge as the big winner, able to project even more influence in a weakened Syria and into Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based. “If Iran wins this conflict and the Syrian regime survives, Iran’s interventionist policy will become wider and its credibility will be enhanced,” an analyst at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Council told Sly.

Blog post by Max Fisher related to above article.

Randall McMurphy Thursday 13 Jun 2013

The Washington Times e-mailed me an hour ago:
U.S.: Syria used chemical weapons

The Syrian government used chemical weapons against its opponents, the Obama administration said Thursday, acknowledging that President Bashar Assad’s regime has crossed the “red line” President Obama laid down for U.S. action.

I'll point out my comment that it was lies, lies, lies has been disappeared, as they say.

Mike Friday 14 Jun 2013

The tempo is starting to pick up. A few headlines from the last two days:

Bill Clinton Suggests Obama Risks Looking Like a "Wuss" and "Total Fool" on Syria

By Josh Voorhees Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013, at 10:38 AM

Bill Clinton took part Tuesday night in a Q-and-A with Sen. John McCain [!] at a semi-private event in New York City, where the former president offered some notably sharp criticism of President Obama's handling of the ongoing war in Syria, specifically his reluctance to get involved. The event was technically closed to the press but both the Daily Beast and Politico managed to get their hands on a recording of the remarks, as tends to happen with events like this.

Among the more pull-quote ready warnings the former president had for the current man in the White House was that Obama risks looking like a "total fool," a "wuss," and "lame" if he keeps the U.S. largely on the sidelines.

It's amazing how much abuse an elected, sitting president is willing to take from an ex-president from his own party and the cancer-faced retard from the other party that he trounced in 2008. The proper response from Obama should something to the effect of "Hey, look, why don't you two punks go finger each other's assholes. I'm the president here, not you." Obama is a very weak person though, so instead we get this:

Obama says Syria has crossed ‘red line’ with chemical weapons, will send weapons

By Ben Wolfgang and Stephen Dinan - The Washington Times Thursday, June 13, 2013

The Syrian government used chemical weapons against rebel forces trying to overthrow the regime, the Obama administration said Thursday, acknowledging that President Bashar Assad has without doubt crossed the “red line” President Obama laid down for U.S. action in the country’s bloody civil war.

The announcement, which confirms what the U.S. and its allies have long suspected, ups the pressure on Mr. Obama, and key lawmakers on Capitol Hill said this means there must be deeper U.S. military involvement in the 2-year-old civil war.

Putting American boots on the ground in Syria isn’t being considered, but administration officials said the U.S. will increase the “scope and scale” of its military assistance to the Assad government’s opponents, who have suffered major setbacks at the hands of government forces in recent weeks. Administration officials told The Associated Press on Thursday night that Mr. Obama has authorized sending arms directly to the rebels, but that no decisions had been made on the timing or on what kind of weaponry would be made available.

Needless to say, when it comes to reports of chemical weapon use in the Middle East, US government sources deserve about as much as credence as a greasy-looking Jew trying to sell you a bridge for a song while sitting in a car with the engine running, but when you're dealing with the public, deserved credence is largely neglected in these matters.

Meanwhile, Assad moves to press his advantage before US weapons start to arrive in rebel camps:

Fierce battle rages for Aleppo

14 June 2013

Syrian troops and rebels have fought the heaviest battles in months in Syria 's largest city, Aleppo . The clashes came a day after US officials said Washington has authorised sending weapons to opposition fighters for the first time.

The Britain -based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the clashes concentrated in the eastern rebel-held neighbourhood of Sakhour, calling the fighting "the most violent in months." It said troops attacked the neighbourhood from two directions but failed to advance, suffering casualties.

Aleppo , Syria 's commercial hub before the civil war, is near the Turkish border. The opposition's Aleppo Media Centre said troops bombarded Sakhour with tank shells and rockets before sending in troops. The fighting lasted about four hours, and then warplanes raided rebel positions in Sakhour.

In other words, US actions are indirectly causing increased violence once again. Russians take note:

Russia Condemns US Move To Arm Syria Rebels

10:58pm UK, Friday 14 June 2013

Russia says arming Syrian rebels could stoke tensions in the region as Damascus denies allegations it used chemical weapons.

Russia has said a US decision to arm rebels opposed to Syrian President Bashar al Assad might stoke violence in the Middle East.

President Barack Obama has authorised lethal aid to Syrian rebels after the US announced it had conclusive evidence that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons.

Prime Minister David Cameron has backed the US assessment, while Syria dismissed the allegations that it had used chemical weapons as "full of lies" and Russia said they were "not backed up".

No one seems to be talking about Obama's Nobel Peace Prize these days. There's a half dozen related articles in the news, but these suffice to convey the gist.

Don Johnson Saturday 15 Jun 2013

Arch-neocon Elliot Abrams, writing in a British neocon publication, claims that support for intervention in Syria by neocons and Democrats is not really about humanitarian concerns or support for democracy, but about weakening Iran and Hezbollah, as well as stemming the flow of Sunni jihadists into Syria:

http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/5016/full

Vuk Saturday 15 Jun 2013

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/0SXBeMhIgFo

The Syria Analysis Thread

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