The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 14 Jan 2012

He's no doubt suggesting the Libyan model with NATO/Turkey taking the lead.

Angocachi Saturday 14 Jan 2012

If GCC troops inflict casualties on Syrian soldiers it will be amazing.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 15 Jan 2012

Dionysian Angocachi SteamshipTime President Camacho

Remember guys, it's a "democratic uprising" lol....

Assad offers an amnesty to the 'criminals' of the Syrian uprising

Syrian opposition groups last night poured scorn on President Bashar al-Assad's offer of an amnesty to his opponents, with one of the most senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood saying the time had come for foreign military intervention.

Mr Assad, who has faced a 10-month insurrection that shows no sign of fizzling out, tried to stave off the threat to his 11-year rule by offering to pardon those guilty of "crimes" committed since his crackdown. The announcement, which came as observers from the Arab League concluded their visit to the country, was derided by opposition groups.

"Anything he has announced in the past has never been implemented," said Basma Kadmani, a leading member of the main opposition group, the Syrian National Council. "I think our scepticism is justified."

Dr Kadmani said she saw "no chance" that soldiers who had defected would return to the national army following President Assad's offer. Yesterday, one of the most senior members of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood, Molham al-Drobi, explicitly called for foreign military action. "We are only asking the international community to protect our sons and daughters who are being killed in cold blood," he told The Independent.

He demanded an Arab military deployment or United Nations peacekeeping mission and said: "They need to send forces immediately."

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 18 Jan 2012

Angocachi President Camacho SweetLeftFoot SteamshipTime Dionysian

Syria: 20 miles from Damascus, an oasis of fragile freedom

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A member of the Free Syrian Army stands guard over Zabadani, which has become a hub of revolt against President Bashar al-Assad's rule.

Zabadani is just 20 miles north-west of Damascus, but it could be on another planet. For nearly a month the mainly Sunni town of 40,000 has effectively been liberated territory, though it is a fragile liberty that is under constant siege. Last Friday government troops launched a large-scale assault backed up by artillery and up to 50 tanks. It is unlikely to be the last. Shelling was reported again on Tuesday. Nearby Madaya was also under attack, a thick pall of smoke hanging over it. Water and electricity have been cut off. Many residents have fled.

"Zabadani is 90% free and the other 10% is held by the strongest army in the Middle East," quipped teacher Ali Abdelrahman, taking part in a mourning ceremony for a man who had been killed two days earlier – the town's 14th fatality since the uprising began. "The more martyrs there are, the stronger we become and the more volunteers we get," he grinned.

Its defenders appear well organised. Anti-Assad activists operating underground in Damascus are often students or professionals. But a key member of the local co-ordination committee here is Abu Nidal, a leathery-faced middle-aged builder who led the first demonstration last March. Other members are farmers and labourers. Another is a barber. All are wanted by the mukhabarat secret police – and are proud of it.

Huddled around the stove drinking coffee in one of their homes after the march, talk turned to the Arab League monitors, whose visit on Sunday brought a brief pause in army operations. The observer's chief, the Sudanese general Muhammad al-Dabi, is himself "a war criminal", someone complained.

The Assad regime dismisses the FSA as an "armed terrorist gang". But it is clear that these ragtag fighters are keeping Zabadani relatively safe. On previous raids, regime forces drove right into the centre of town with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and truckloads of shabiha thugs.

"It's unbelievable how they treat us," said Ahmed, an engineering student turned film-maker who now documents the uprising. "Even the Israelis use things like rubber bullets and teargas against the Palestinians. Not here."

Exact numbers and dispositions are secret, but there are said to be 70 FSA men around town and in the surrounding fields and orchards. Increasingly, though, they are out in the open, even manning checkpoints. Many are defectors from the army and mukhabarat , some are local volunteers. Elsewhere in Syria , FSA men have been accused of behaving as brutally as their enemies.

Team Zissou Thursday 19 Jan 2012

oasis of fragile freedom :tard2:

SweetLeftFoot Friday 20 Jan 2012

What was the name of that gangster they wanted to run Iraq again? Chalabi? They've learned the lessons from him. Every time I see Free Syrian Army now, all I can think is Contras. Or Bay of Pigs.

SweetLeftFoot Saturday 21 Jan 2012

Notice how the FREE SYRIAN ARMY has no real head? A few "Colonels" but no big fella. Learned the Chalabi lesson there very good. Fucken Turks gone dog though. Can't hate the Turks after they forgave us (Australians) for invading them just yet but they aren't helping their own cause.

"Those heroes that shed their blood and lost their lives... you are now lying in the soil of a friendly country. Therefore rest in peace. There is no difference between the Johnnies and the Mehmets to us where they lie side by side here in this country of ours... You the mothers who sent their sons from far away countries wipe away your tears. Your sons are now lying in our bosom and are in peace. After having lost their lives on this land they have become our sons as well."

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 23 Jan 2012

SweetLeftFoot SteamshipTime Angocachi Dionysian

Ultimatum Time!

Bashar al-Assad given ultimatum to oversee transition to democracy

After a day of intense argument, League leaders made an unprecedented decision to decide how an Arab nation should constitute its government.

And for the second time in a year after its intervention over Libya, it sought United Nations security council approval for its actions, raising the longer term prospect of international action. Sheikh Hamad bin Jaseem al-Thani, the prime minister of Qatar reiterated warnings that the League could send in peacekeeping troops to separate the sides in an emerging civil war.

"The new Arab initiative adopted by the foreign ministers envisages the peaceful departure of the Syrian regime," he said, adding that it mirrored a Gulf-led deal to ease President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen from power last year.

The meeting of Arab foreign ministers lasted six hours longer than scheduled. The leader of the monitoring mission to Syria, Gen. Mustafa al-Dabi, had recommended extending it for another month, and was backed by the secretary-general, Nabil al-Araby, even though he also accused Mr Assad of exploiting it for his own purposes.

An extension had been fiercely opposed by Syrian opposition groups who claimed it gave licence to Mr Assad to "carry on killing”.

Saudi Arabia, the major Gulf power, announced it was pulling its observers out.

"It is not a quality of Arab leaders to kill their people," a statement by its foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said, accusing the Assad regime of using the mission to "hide its crimes".

Team Zissou Monday 23 Jan 2012

Those Gulf Arabs are getting awfully uppity with Centcom in their backyard.

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 24 Jan 2012

Rebel Retreat!!!

Syria rebels retreat after seizing area near capital

(Reuters) - Syrian rebels seized parts of the town of Douma near the capital Damascus on Saturday and then withdrew to their hideouts, activists said.

Night-time gunbattles and explosions rocked Douma, 14 kilometres (9 miles) northwest of the capital, activists said. Douma has been a centre of protests in the 10-month revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

The head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the fighters retreated to their hideouts once they had pushed state forces outside of Douma.

"It seems they chose not to hold on to the territory, most likely because it could offer the regime an excuse to storm the area," Rami Abdelrahman told Reuters.

The fighting posed no direct threat to Damascus itself but may be seen as too close for comfort to the government, which has launched a heavy crackdown since unrest began in March.

One resident told Reuters the move marked the first time rebels, who call themselves the Free Syrian Army, held territory in Douma for an extended period of time.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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