The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 14 Dec 2011

Syria shows you to be incorrect. International Law is one of America's strongest methods of leverage against states that oppose it. If they circumvent it, they lose that card and allow rivals to do so as well, as long as they themselves have nukes i.e. Russia and China.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 15 Dec 2011

President Camacho Angocachi

It looks like Israel has been convinced/bought off to support Assad's removal.....

Israeli officials say Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is doomed :

In a shift, Israeli officials are welcoming the prospect that Syria’s embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, will be overthrown, an event Defense Minister Ehud Barak says could be weeks away.
The officials’ new tone contrasts with conventional thinking here in years past, when Assad was credited with maintaining calm along the frontier with the Israeli-held Golan Heights and considered a stable alternative to a possible takeover by Islamic fundamentalists.

As Assad has come under mounting pressure from a revolt at home and moves to isolate him abroad , initial wariness by Israeli officials of speaking publicly about the fate of his regime has given way to open speculation about how long he can hold on to power, who might replace him and the possible risks of a chaotic disintegration of his rule.

“Basically, it’s inevitable,” Barak said in a telephone interview before flying Wednesday to Washington for meetings with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other administration officials. “The Assad family, through their own behavior, have lost their last drop of legitimacy and put themselves beyond the point of no return with their brutal slaughter of their own people. He has ceased to be something relevant.”

“It might take many weeks,” Barak added, “but it’s not a matter of months or years.”

Barak predicted that an eventual ouster of Assad would undermine an alliance of Israel’s enemies, including militant Islamist groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, backed by Iran and Syria, that have fought Israel across its northern and southern borders.

“When the Assad family falls, it will be a major blow to the radical axis led by Iran,” Barak said “It will weaken Iran, it will weaken Hezbollah and weaken the backing for Hamas, and it will deprive the Iranians of a real stronghold in the Arab world. It will strengthen Turkey, which is a natural rival to Iran’s hegemonic intentions. . . . This is something positive for Israel.”

Yaalon said that in the event that Assad was toppled, Iran and Hezbollah would “lose an asset in Damascus,” a development that would “serve our interest.”

Angocachi Thursday 15 Dec 2011

If it becomes an Ikhwani-Salafi hybrid like Egypt is becoming, Israel will wish for the old Baathist Alawite. All Assad ever did was keep Israel off the Litani, and for that the Jews are ready to risk the rise of a regime that wants them off the whole Levant.
I wonder what NATO did to tilt them in favor.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 19 Dec 2011

NATO vs. Syria

Americans should be concerned about what is happening in Syria, if only because it threatens to become another undeclared war like Libya but much, much worse. Calls for regime change have come from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who several weeks ago predicted a civil war. That is indeed likely if the largely secular and nationalist regime of Bashar al-Assad falls, pitting Sunni against Shia against Alawite. Indigenous Christians will be caught in the meat grinder. Ironically, many of the Christians in Damascus are Iraqis who experienced the last round of liberation in their own country and had to flee for their lives.

NATO is already clandestinely engaged in the Syrian conflict, with Turkey taking the lead as U.S. proxy. Ankara’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davitoglu, has openly admitted that his country is prepared to invade as soon as there is agreement among the Western allies to do so. The intervention would be based on humanitarian principles, to defend the civilian population based on the “responsibility to protect” doctrine that was invoked to justify Libya. Turkish sources suggest that intervention would start with creation of a buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border and then be expanded. Aleppo, Syria’s largest and most cosmopolitan city, would be the crown jewel targeted by liberation forces.

Unmarked NATO warplanes are arriving at Turkish military bases close to Iskenderum on the Syrian border, delivering weapons from the late Muammar Gaddafi’s arsenals as well as volunteers from the Libyan Transitional National Council who are experienced in pitting local volunteers against trained soldiers, a skill they acquired confronting Gaddafi’s army. Iskenderum is also the seat of the Free Syrian Army, the armed wing of the Syrian National Council. French and British special forces trainers are on the ground, assisting the Syrian rebels while the CIA and U.S. Spec Ops are providing communications equipment and intelligence to assist the rebel cause, enabling the fighters to avoid concentrations of Syrian soldiers.

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 23 Dec 2011

Angocachi President Camacho

[IMG]

A checkpoint run by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) at Baba Amr, a poor district in the southwestern part of Homs, Syria's third-largest city: It is the first liberated zone in central Syria. Within these three square kilometers, everything is different. It is a topography of terror and, for many, a beacon of hope.

[IMG]

Here, a 20-year-old man called Malik, killed by Syrian forces, is laid to rest near Homs. The young baker had dreamed of owning his own bakery someday, relatives said.

[IMG]

Residents inside the liberated district of Baba Amr take part in an evening demonstration.

Team Zissou Monday 26 Dec 2011

Syria is going to become Yemen. Almost everybody with an IQ over 110 will leave.

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 10 Jan 2012

Angocachi President Camacho Bronze Age Pervert Dionysian SteamshipTime

Syria’s Assad threatens ‘iron hand’ against uprising

Syrian President Bashar Assad vowed Tuesday to respond to threats against him with an “iron hand” and refused to step down, insisting he still has his people's support despite the 10-month-old uprising against him.

In his first speech since June, Mr. Assad repeated claims that a foreign conspiracy and terrorists are behind the unrest — not true reform-seekers.

“Our priority now is to regain security which we basked in for decades, and this can only be achieved by hitting the terrorists with an iron hand,” Mr. Assad said in a nearly two-hour speech at Damascus University, where he stood at a podium flanked by Syrian flags. “We will not be lenient with those who work with outsiders against the country.”

Mr. Assad also lashed out at the Arab League, saying the Cairo-based bloc failed to protect Arab interests. The League has suspended Syria and sent a team of monitors to assess whether the regime is abiding by an Arab-brokered peace plan that Mr. Assad agreed to on Dec. 19. The moves were humiliating for Syria, which considers itself a powerhouse of Arab nationalism.

“The Arab League failed for six decades to protect Arab interests,” Mr. Assad said. “We shouldn't be surprised it's failed today.”

Team Zissou Wednesday 11 Jan 2012

Good for Bashar.

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 14 Jan 2012

Angocachi Thomas777 Dionysian President Camacho SteamshipTime

The Qataris have taken the lead role in the Arab World as the state most supportive of American/Western hegemony in the region. They spearheaded the Arab League's actions against Libya and now are calling for an Arab invasion of Syria.

Send Arab troops to curb Syria’s violence: Qatari Emir

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, has called for Arab soldiers to be deployed in Syria in order to halt the deadly crackdown on that country’s widespread protests. The declaration is a significant increase in pressure tactics against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

In an interview to be broadcast Sunday on the U.S. television program “60 Minutes,” the Emir was asked whether he favors Arab nations intervening in Syria. He replied: “For such a situation to stop the killing... some troops should go to stop the killing.”

The tiny but wealthy Gulf state has taken a lead role in promoting uprisings in the Arab world this past year. It strongly advocated international intervention in Libya, a move that contributed to the downfall of Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi. It now has assumed a similar role in seeking the ouster of Mr. al-Assad.

Though not democratic itself, Qatar has promoted the virtues of free elections in the Arab states that have seen their authoritarian rulers ousted.

At the same time, the emirate is believed to be funding some of the more radical Salafist groups running in those elections, or seeking to benefit from more open political systems.

Russia and Hezbollah aren't having it:

The call for armed intervention came just a few days after the head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, claimed to know of a plan to intervene, one that involved Gulf states.

“We are receiving information that NATO members and some Persian Gulf states, working under the ‘Libyan scenario,’ intend to move from indirect intervention in Syria to direct military intervention,” the security council chief said.

Russia believes that such drastic action to put pressure on the al-Assad regime is less for what is happening to protesters than for Syria’s close relationship to Iran, and the widespread international campaign against the Persian state.

Meanwhile, another of Iran’s clients, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, commented on the Syrian crisis Saturday, calling on the opposition in Syria to “relinquish its weapons and to accept to engage in dialogue” with the al-Assad regime.

Mr. al-Assad made reference to a dialogue in his speech Tuesday that widely condemned the popular uprising as a product of international conspirators.

Angocachi Saturday 14 Jan 2012

niccolo and donkey said: ↑

Angocachi Thomas777 Dionysian President Camacho SteamshipTime

The Qataris have taken the lead role in the Arab World as the state most supportive of American/Western hegemony in the region. They spearheaded the Arab League's actions against Libya and now are calling for an Arab invasion of Syria.

Send Arab troops to curb Syria’s violence: Qatari Emir

Russia and Hezbollah aren't having it:

Are they suggesting GCC soldiers are going to attack the Syrian military?

The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts