← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Conservative
Thread ID: 8285 | Posts: 3 | Started: 2003-07-20
2003-07-20 04:10 | User Profile
The following is from [url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm]http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm[/url]
When will computer hardware match the human brain?
(Received Dec. 1997) Hans Moravec Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, USA net: hpm@cmu.edu web: [url=http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/]http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/[/url]
ABSTRACT
This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.
Brains, Eyes and Machines
Computers have far to go to match human strengths, and our estimates will depend on analogy and extrapolation. Fortunately, these are grounded in the first bit of the journey, now behind us. Thirty years of computer vision reveals that 1 MIPS can extract simple features from real-time imagery--tracking a white line or a white spot on a mottled background. 10 MIPS can follow complex gray-scale patches--as smart bombs, cruise missiles and early self-driving vans attest. 100 MIPS can follow moderately unpredictable features like roads--as recent long NAVLAB trips demonstrate. 1,000 MIPS will be adequate for coarse-grained three-dimensional spatial awareness--illustrated by several mid-resolution stereoscopic vision programs, including my own. 10,000 MIPS can find three-dimensional objects in clutter--suggested by several "bin-picking" and high-resolution stereo-vision demonstrations, which accomplish the task in an hour or so at 10 MIPS. The data fades there--research careers are too short, and computer memories too small, for significantly more elaborate experiments.
Complete article is at [url=http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm]http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm[/url]
2003-07-20 23:33 | User Profile
Originally posted by wintermute@Jul 20 2003, 17:27 * ** > When will computer hardware match the human brain?*
Kurzweil says this century, probably about the midway point.
Maybe our 'machines of loving grace' will be better at economics than we are.
At least I hope so.
Wintermute **
Yudkowsy is packing his bags for a Singularity within the next 20 years :lol:
Personally, I think that computers may eventually match or surpass the human brain in mere raw processing power, but building conscious machines is a problem that science will not be able to solve for at least a few centuries, since our understaning of what consciousness is and how it originates is woefully deficient.
2003-07-21 00:05 | User Profile
Originally posted by wintermute@Jul 20 2003, 23:27 * ** > When will computer hardware match the human brain?*
Kurzweil says this century, probably about the midway point.
Maybe our 'machines of loving grace' will be better at economics than we are.
At least I hope so.
Wintermute **
I don't hold out much hope of computers being good at economics wm. Modelling economies in detail is I think an intrinsically hard problem, like predicting future technology breakthroughs ;)