← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Dan Dare
Thread ID: 7866 | Posts: 11 | Started: 2003-07-05
2003-07-05 02:26 | User Profile
I'd like to launch a new model of a kite I've flight-tested before at OD, without generating a lot of support it must be said. However with the addition of new heavyweights like Triskelion to the roster who may provide a broader perspective I'm wondering about giving it another go.
The basic hypothesis is that the US as we know is entering its terminal phase due to the demographic tsunami that is about to engulf us. Using the relatively conservative middle range growth rates from the Census Bureau, the US population is forecast to grow to 403 million by 2050. That's an increase of 130 million since the last census and, according to NumbersUSA, 90% of the growth is due to non-replacement immigration and associated descendants.
Per the Census Bureau, the white population will drop from 72% to 53%, black stays about the same at 13%, Hispanic grows from 11% to 24%, and Asian likewise from 4% to 9% (the missing 1% are Native Americans).
So, given this very likely scenario, one casts around for present-day examplars that might serve as a model for what the USA could look like when our grandchildren are approaching our present age.
A first and easy choice would be Brazil. Here we have a privileged white upper class that lives in fortified compounds but retains sufficient control over the levers of economic and political power that they can continue to live very comfortably if somewhat precariously. The problem with this model is that there is no white working class in Brazil, or even a significant middle class for that matter.
Thoughts then turn to South Africa, which not so very long ago was a first world nation albeit with a festering racial problem that the rest of the world would not let it deal with it its own way. South Africa is in many ways much closer to what the USA will be like soon. There are three significant racial groupings compared to our four, but the major difference is the black majority in SA is demographically dominant. If the US HIspanic and black population figures were reversed, I would say South Africa is the future, but they're not so it probably isn't.
Perhaps, and most optimistically, a racial balance can come into play a little like the balance of power in Europe before WW1. By that I mean, perhaps the Asians and whites will combine politically as they do now economically. Perhaps enough blacks and Hispanics will climb into the middle class that the remaining lumpenproletariat will be manageable. The model for this would be Singapore, where a repressive and authoritarian regime is able to keep the lid on the pressure cooker by vigorously suppressing any racial tensions. My sense is this not what most WNs dream about but is there any other realistic scenario?
2003-07-05 07:58 | User Profile
Dan,
Interesting question. I don't think there are any current good analogies for the likely future US, for the reasons given below.
Every country ultimately either has a dominant ethno-cultural group, or its political system is dominated by conflict between groups.
South Africa has gone from an explicitely white dominated political system to explicit black majority rule. Although it pays lip service to western PC (eg: everyone who disagrees with the ANC is 'racist'), it's now run by tribal aristocracies such as the minority Xhosa who dominate the ANC (led by Xhosa aristocrats like Nelson Mandela). While the need to temper white flight and not scare off foreign investment tempers their actions somewhat while the rulers extract resources from the productive ex-rulers, continued white emmigration and entrenched tribal cronyism, plus immigration from other Southern African countries and the fact that the expectations of the black majority populations are unmeetable make the prognosis terrible, but I think its a specifically African situation, and the fact that blacks are a clear majority is very different from the US, even substituting latinos for blacks.
Brazils traditional non-racial ideology of a specifically South American sort is a cover for the fact that descent is a good indicator of whether you live in a favela or not. Its complicated by the fact that there are is a more of a racial mix than in the US, but still generally true. I think you could make the case that the racial mix makes it easier for the rulers to subdue racial animosity because it gives the favela dwellers less to unite behind. Recently Brazil has started implementing US style racial quotas (with it's racial mix causing big problems as to who gets what privileges), and it wouldn't be surprising if these quotas caused turmoil in the future if the poorer groups start to vote on racial lines in order to make stronger claims against the richer citizens. (Brazil had its first mayor regarded as black a couple of years ago, I think it was in Brazilia but I'm not sure). Those quotas are a new thing though, and a break from past practices, and a Brazilian racial mix won't be created in the US any time soon.
The problem with using Singapore as an example of stable race relations is that it depends on the Chinese minority that dominates the economy and political system feeling secure enough in their position to be somewhat paternalistic towards the Malays. What Lee Kwan Yew (a Hakka Chinese race realist) can do in Singapore can't be done in the US, where the suppression of ethnic cohesion among the productive majority for the benefit of less productive minorities just creates more claims over time.
I think the critical question in the US is, when will the European majority start to act in their ethnic interests. The thing that is unique about the US and Europe is that ethnic competition is founded on the suppression of the very idea that Europeans are a group at all, for the benefit of all the competing groups who openly pursue their ethnic interests. That can't continue forever, it's a runaway train. There will come a time when the cost of not dissenting from the current order will be so onerous that people will stop doing it. Until then the minority interest is to make doing so as expensive as possible. When the dam breaks depends on the economy, and how fast the economic and political claims of minority groups grow, but there must be some point when it becomes intolerable, because minority claims certainly won't just be satisfied one day, as establishment conservatives like to pretend, they just get more brazen over time.
2003-07-05 15:52 | User Profile
First, I would mention that white-minority status is not a 'done-deal.' 50 years is a while; plenty of time to have a lot of kids. Combine with lower immigration rates, and thinks might work out, demographically speaking.
Second: a counterveiling point. A lot of individuals classified as 'white' are rather far from being Anglo Americans, or anything close. So who knows about those figures.
Third, SA and Brazil are not good examples because white in both countries are, by a long shot, minorities.
The key to maintaining the feasibility of diminished-demographic status for whites is having a voting populace in place that dislikes 'big government.' Otherwise, blacks and Latinos will loot white property via the legal means of taxes, and also perhaps further the system of anti-white racial preferences we currently have.
Absent this possibility, massive devolution of power is needed, including having a good deal of armament in the hands of whites.
2003-07-05 22:31 | User Profile
I have little doubt that a complete collapse of the current "system" is going to occur far sooner than most people believe. Nothing is a done deal as mentioned above, and look at the changes over the past 50 years. There will be a very harsh, brutal period in this country in terms of civil unrest and collapse, but in the end, I feel it work out in the best interests of whites. I don't think you're going to see the entire country turn into another "Brazil", although parts of L.A. here resemble that "paradise" :P . Things need to become more uncomfortable for the majority of whites in this country, in all areas. Hell, this crappy decision in favor of the fudge-packers by The Supremes may help out. The decision affects thousands of sex abuse cases, etc., with the perpetrators now able to get off (in many ways <_< ) for one reason or another under the "ruling". Nothing hits harder than something (potentially) affecting your children. When whitey has to fight against the boolies and soggybacks for some water or milk for his kids, it's all over.
2003-07-06 04:02 | User Profile
America is more like 65% white now. Jews, Arabs, Persians, Turks etc. are counted as white in the census. Mestizo hispanics are heavily undercounted. A few years ago, the date for a white minority(by the above definition) America was being touted in the media as 2030 or 2040. Then it was changed across the board to 2050. My bet is by the 2030 census, whites will be in the minority, assuming current trends continue. Of course, by this time, the average white will proabably be about 50 years old and white retirees will out number white children by at least two to one.
2003-07-08 10:12 | User Profile
There is another possibility that seems all too likely. Look at Rhodesia/Zimbabawe. That could be us in the not too distant future. The black and 'spanic populations will continue to sue for what they want and later on, take by force what the corrupt legal system does not give them. Too many Whites will be more than happy to turn over their property to the rioting brown hordes and run for the mountains.
Hopefully Whites will realize that we've got nowhere else to run before it si too late and America turns into another Africa.
2003-07-08 15:10 | User Profile
Hell, look at the demographic shifts in the last 10 years! Do you really think we Whites have 50 years to get our collective sh*t together? No, and I agree with Roy Batty, that this malfunctioning system called America doesn't have much time. 5 years from now, we'll be saying 2003 were the good ol days. If you want a future model, look at Palestine and the Palestinians, except the Whites will play the "Israelis" and our minorities will play the "Palestinians". The muddy hordes will demand their land back (Aztlan) and Whites will cling to and even continue to build and reside on said land ensuring a blood fued ad infinitum. The Whites will continue to endure attacks from the Muds because they failed to deport all of them when they had the chance. I see the USA as a future Israel/Palestinian styled nightmare.
PS, this is not to say that I support Israeli policies! I support Palestine. I was just using their current scenario as a sort of model for what could come to the USA in the very near future.
2003-07-08 17:16 | User Profile
*Originally posted by Roy Batty@Jul 5 2003, 22:31 * ** I have little doubt that a complete collapse of the current "system" is going to occur far sooner than most people believe. **
I hope you're right.
Shrub's rising tide of red ink has to be helping the whole collapse scenario along.
Who else here has read Joseph Tainter's "Collapse of Complex Societies?"
Yggdrasil has that on his classics list, and seems to believe that this analysis combined with his Elliot Wave vectors spell collapse in - what? - 20 years.
It's an interesting theory. Tainter's book is definitely worth consideration. I have my doubts about Elliot Wave Theory, but some folks swear by it.
Anyway, I agree that the collapse scenario is attractive, because it would force whites to fend for themselves against the depredations of out-groups. Our skin would become our uniform, by default.
I fear that it might just be wishful thinking, though.
I'd like to hear others' comments.
Walter
2003-07-08 18:56 | User Profile
Walter,
I read the Tainter book after mwdallas recommended it here some time ago, and I'd also recommend it. As for elliot wave theory, I only know of it from technical stock analysis, and I don't think it has any real predictive value.
As for the coming collapse, I'm skeptical in the short term. It's appealing of course because it gets everyone up off their rears, but people seem to have an almost limitless ability to accept what was previously unnacceptable for the sake of short term security. Wouldn't the post WW2 generation be just certain that the population would have rebelled by now? Also, although as abominations like PC get worse there is more reason to dissent, the cost of dissenting gets higher too.
The best argument in its favour is that none of the ailments - immigration and its pathologies, PC, and the huge government and household debt bubble - are not going to go away on their own, so maybe there's hope! ;)
2003-07-08 21:10 | User Profile
I too long for a system collapse. There is however the distinct possibility that our (not incidentally) increasing totalitarian government may find a way to cope with the crises, e.g., Homeland Security and konzentration lagers.
The 44 trillion of unfounded liability guarantees ââ¬Åinteresting timesââ¬Â when the leading boomers discover that there is no safety net to draw on ten years hence. During the intervening period we may safely predict the continuation of job exports and the annual influx of roughly one million Mestizos and assorted coloureds. Because the Alien population of South-Western States is nearing white parity the trend is irreversible. Nothing will be done at the state level for politicians, lobbyists, immigration lawyers, and even border guards are increasingly likely to be Aliens themselves. On the national scene the same players as well as industrialists of all levels of pigmentation favour the status quo (frankly, NAFTA and Globalization leaves the latter with little choice even if they were inclined to practice patriotism) and opposition is negligible and penniless, though that may change when the screwing gets tighter.
Naturally, as the socialists are so fond of telling us, the richer will get richer (though fewer in number) and the poorer will get poorer. Class polarization will become more pronounced but it will not breakdown neatly per racial lines. Zhidish hanky-panky, wealth extortion/transfer schemes, employment quotas, and flirtation with diversity means that Whites will end up scattered all over the map wealth wise. On average we will be better off than blacks and mestizos but the variance will be large.
I doubt that the majority of whites will engage in group-oriented behaviour to secure our interests at the expense of others, to say nothing of meting out just deserts where it is due when suffering begins in earnest. Moreover, the majority will utterly fail to identity the holly trinity of Democracy, multiculturalism and runaway capitalism as the elements most responsible for our downfall. They will embrace their fellow commoners, (be they black, brown or whatever) and blame the politicians, the plutocrats, and maybe even ââ¬Åracistsââ¬Â for their lack of enthusiasm vis-à-vis the great experiment.
But the part concerning the coming financial and social collapse is well known, if not by elected politicians then certainly by their handlers. Those who claim otherwise are either liars or imbeciles. ZOG knows and because it is at heart a typical political enterprise it favours its own preservation over that of its subjects and is preparing diligently to maintain a semblance of social order.
I am not sure that keeping an eye on the racial balance is a productive exercise as concerning North America. We will always be outnumbered. The White manââ¬â¢s biggest problem is his own kind and the real struggle is getting the bulk to, if not think racist thoughts, at least acknowledge race realities and its implication. Failure on that front means having to fight our own kind for they and the mulattos will be our most fanatic opponents. Whether our overall percentage is 60, 50, or 40 is not terribly significant so long we have a truly sizable segment that is inclined to entertain race-based solutions come chaos.
2003-07-08 21:31 | User Profile
*Originally posted by Leveller@Jul 8 2003, 12:56 * ** Walter,
I read the Tainter book after mwdallas recommended it here some time ago, and I'd also recommend it. As for elliot wave theory, I only know of it from technical stock analysis, and I don't think it has any real predictive value.
As for the coming collapse, I'm skeptical in the short term. It's appealing of course because it gets everyone up off their rears, but people seem to have an almost limitless ability to accept what was previously unnacceptable for the sake of short term security. Wouldn't the post WW2 generation be just certain that the population would have rebelled by now? Also, although as abominations like PC get worse there is more reason to dissent, the cost of dissenting gets higher too.
The best argument in its favour is that none of the ailments - immigration and its pathologies, PC, and the huge government and household debt bubble - are not going to go away on their own, so maybe there's hope! ;) **
An author has theorized recently that 401(k) cash-outs (your retirement grows tax-deferred, not tax free! you pay that at the end) will provide the GOVT massive wind-falls in the next 25 years, that will cover much of our "debt"
The future is hidden from us all, I am not sure about economic collapse. I do think that societal breakdown is inevitable, it's already happening everywhere.
-Jay