← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · edward gibbon
Thread ID: 5790 | Posts: 6 | Started: 2003-03-24
2003-03-24 19:22 | User Profile
From the Mainichi Shimbun, March 24, 2003 [url=http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/20030324p2a00m0bu003000c.html]http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/20030324p2a...0bu003000c.html[/url]
** Japan sees first trade surplus rise in 2 months
Japan's trade surplus rose 20.4 percent to 936.2 billion yen in February from the year earlier on a customs-cleared basis, according to a preliminary report on trade statistics the Finance Ministry released Monday.
This is the first increase in the nation's overall trade surplus in two months, ministry officials said. However, Japan's trade surplus with the United States posted a two-consecutive-month decrease in February due mainly to a nearly 21 percent decrease in Japan's exports of automobiles to the U.S.
Japan's overall exports in February totaled nearly 4.33 trillion yen, up 7.6 percent from the year earlier, aided by an increase in exports of audio-related parts, including mobile phone components, and semiconductors. The nation's imports posted a 4.5 percent rise to nearly 3.39 trillion yen in February from the year before mainly as a result of a rise in oil prices because of the ongoing war against Iraq. Both imports and exports of personal computers plunged sharply.
By area, Japan's surplus with Asian countries rose two-fold to 561.4 billion yen while the surplus with the United States declined 14.2 percent to 567.4 billion yen.**
If a figure of 120 yen equals one dollar is used, Japan's trade surplus rose to almost $8 billion in February. Their total exports come to about $35 billion a month. With the United States Japan had a trade surplus greater than $4.5 billion in one month, or on a yearly basis about $55 billion. The United States will soon be a pauper nation if this continues much longer. First Japan, then China after studiously studying Japan for decades will administer the coup de grace.
2003-03-25 22:55 | User Profile
The insolvency of the US is an issue that is trumped only by demographics in terms of importance, the final outcome of which cannot be stated plainer:
The United States will soon be a pauper nation if this continues much longer. First Japan, then China after studiously studying Japan for decades will administer the coup de grace.
Scratch an economic problem and youââ¬â¢ll invariably find a misalignment between production growth and income growth underneath it all.
The US was a productive nation whose populace could afford the fruits of its own industries, but no longer. Presently, her economy can most aptly be characterized as managerial/service oriented, and the distinguishing trait of her teeming masses is not their opulence but their hopeless indebtedness. The economy cannot afford the brutes retiring their debt en mass because it has become depended on their continuous ââ¬Ëservicing.ââ¬â¢ Corporate entities have become reliant on cheap labour and do not dare reverse the trend for fear (well founded) that this will cut into profits, and, more importantly, that speculators will punish them accordingly. The effect is self-perpetuating and will not cease until the entire globe in encompassed and all markets yield to the strokes of world financiers. Properly employed, the term ââ¬ÅGlobalizationââ¬Â merely describes the scale of this activity, rather than serve as a cant of some newfound righteous path to expanding and exporting wealth.
Japanââ¬â¢s extensive holdings in the US mean that she will do what sheââ¬â¢s been doing for the past few years, namely, continue to devalue the Yen to maintain a favourable rate of exchange and an invaluable market for its exports. Naturally, few will be able to match the US in the coming depreciative exercise but the Japanese will try harder than most.
Regarding the Chinese: lets just say that Adolf was sound on fundamentals and all indications are that his prediction for North America was a work of prescience. Dumping our knapsack is one requisite, rethinking capitalism is another.
2003-03-29 00:41 | User Profile
Surely Japan has been monitoring North Korean activities through satellite, upon which NK has said it considers hostile. There can be no doubt among the Japanese that they should have militarized 20 years ago, 30 years after the end of WW II and the restrictions the US imposed upon it, but that was a different world. Now they are dealing with the ineffacies of their own acquiesence and paying the price. Concerning the economic points made above, there is no such thing as currencies anymore. The United States can continue to bloat its deficit trillions more ( we are less in debt now than 20 years ago ) but it doesn't matter. It's all just fuzzy math. The true monetary element now is POWER. Pure, unmitigated power. Precious metals continue to hold the position of prominence over fake currency, as always, but its truly beyond even that now. Money is, was, and always will be, only a tool. A ways of reaching an end. And that's exactly how it is seen and manipulated by the powers in this world. Pretty crowns, the gems, the electrical advantages, all that made precious elements precious has been exploited and is no longer relevant in the post-modern era. Especially considering that the IF's control the mass of those elements to the degree which their base value is judged by.
2003-03-29 03:24 | User Profile
Wintermute, the world is long past considering the fancies of which you mention. They no longer have relevance. Economics at its base in this era is diametrically opposed to the former reference points of previous centuries. Processed cheese is a most poignant metaphor for the grinding machine which is world economics. Creating nothing from something, value from capitualizing upon the assumption of worth, and then magnifying it to the extreme of usury as bad as it can get. It is true that blood letting is a way of reprimanding this malfunction. That must be done by an underground establishment. Consider this - the French were instrumental in making America free, by their own blood. And they are working to this day to make America free. The imbued concordance of French populace is indeed more imperative than the neocons who rule America think. France is not to be trifled with. The role of American forces in World War II is over-estimated. France would have been free in a few years. America is dead. Only human sentiment can make world events. It has NOTHING to do with the USA. The USA has turned into something it was never meant to be. It is no longer the United States. Not now. I support Ted Kennedy and Lincoln Chaffee.
2003-03-30 23:48 | User Profile
. . .there is no such thing as currencies anymore. The United States can continue to bloat its deficit trillions more ( we are less in debt now than 20 years ago ) but it doesn't matter. It's all just fuzzy math. The true monetary element now is POWER. Pure, unmitigated power. Precious metals continue to hold the position of prominence over fake currency, as always, but its truly beyond even that now. Money is, was, and always will be, only a tool. A ways of reaching an end. And that's exactly how it is seen and manipulated by the powers in this world. Pretty crowns, the gems, the electrical advantages, all that made precious elements precious has been exploited and is no longer relevant in the post-modern era.
Iââ¬â¢m not sure what point youââ¬â¢re trying make. It appears that youââ¬â¢re splicing the role of currency and the role of government, two separate items no mater how intertwined they seem.
Anything can be a currency. All you need is an object and an agreement of authenticity and worth. Governments can do whatever they fancy with themselves, but you and I will always have need for tokens (tools) to make purchases and to make up shortfalls when bartering. Many would be currency and economic reformers take issue with the volume of paper and the amount of zeros flowing about in the digital realm and complain that it is not backed by known quantity, gold for instance. They are right, of course, but wrong in their faith in precious metals because it is precisely their finite quantity that makes them unsuited to support any currency whose volume fluctuates only in one direction. Devaluation is an inevitable consequence. A government decree aided by sufficient force can effectively back currency with anything it whims. But some things are more practical than others as at least one controlled experiment with labour and gold standard has shown.
Power is a tool of governments, a point Rumsfeld makes explicit with his daily performance on the telescreen, but it has no role in transaction between parties who are at arms length to any governmental body capable of nullifying said transaction. This includes me, most likely you, and all the other serfs (non renters) and nomads of the Empire. So long as business remains a question of ââ¬Åtake it or leave itââ¬Â sans coercion, there is no cause for complaint.
Our problems stem from treacherous governmental policies and the proliferation thereof along with usurpation of non-governmental functions, particularly as relating to commerce. On reflection, I gather this is what you were trying to convey, and, if so, there is no debate.
2003-03-31 00:12 | User Profile
My grasp of economics is adequate, but not up to the task of rethinking capitalism (at least not by myself). The logic of distributism is very compelling to me, and Roepke's work in Germany is impressive, but I'm always interested in learning more. When you say that we must rethink capitalism (and your knowledge of economics seems more wide ranging than mine), what do you mean/foresee/expect/wish for?
Adequate knowledge in a given subject is more than sufficient to enable perception of problems and suggestion of remedies. Specialists tend to trivialities and are not to be trusted, particularly when solutions hint of changes to fundamentals and niches. If you own your business, read the odd economic or finance book/article and possess a discerning mind, youââ¬â¢re overqualified. There is no need to faint modesty among heretics. I am a generalist and do not consider myself qualified for great many things but that does not inhibit me from sharing.
Regarding problems, here are few (apart from Globalization):
Consider the labels assigned to varying rates of growth as measured by the GDP, and assuming negligible( :lol: ) rate of inflation. GDP surpassing population growth by some margin is called ââ¬ÅGrowth.ââ¬Â GDP hovering below or barely exceeding population growth is called ââ¬Årecession,ââ¬Â while still lower GDP is known as ââ¬Ådepression.ââ¬Â Growth, of course, is good and all else is bad. In the context of fixed space and resources, the labels betray the madness inherent in any economic system that worships such growth. True economic growth is not sustainable any more than population growth, but at least there is prediction of levelling off of the latter. The nature of the former permits no such heresy in the long run.
Once upon a time a proper definition of capitalism described the role of labourer-capitalist as periodically abstaining from consumption, ââ¬Åby denying himself the present enjoyment of more or less his means of consumption, in the prospect of a future profit.ââ¬Â Do you know of any such capitalists, does anyone? If so, where are they? Securing massive capital for investment is relatively easy if there is backing by a sufficiently influential entity, solvency and credit history be irrelevant, to say nothing of prior restraint.
It is no secret that, in general, the stock market is a poor vehicle for channelling investment into new and independent (non-subsidiary) ventures that lack parental backing, presumably its raison dââ¬â¢etre. This has become ancillary, as it perhaps always was, to speculation, a harmless activity if practiced by those who could afford it, but lethal to all when the bulk of the betting concerns derivatives. With governmental bodies becoming players, the game looses all pretence of being subject to independent regulators as stakes (investments) impact future budgetary expenditures. You can be an insider or a sucker!
Naturally, it would not be advisable to discount outright an economic system that yielded unparalleled prosperity to its participants, and, in its pure form, is sans equal in diverting capital where useful. Dispatching the Federal Reserve and the IMF is easy enough. Further modifications must take into account two fundamental rules governing human behaviour: 1) You get more of what you support, and 2) laws to suppress tend to strengthen what they would prohibit. The first rings true for corporate mergers, taxes and welfare, while the second is no less valid for narcotics, tax evasion and anti-trust laws. Manoeuvring between the two is true mastery, and discussing it is easier than navigating.
We could start by laying down principles we know to be of merit because history has confirmed as much. Distributismââ¬â¢s basic premise -- that people are more motivated and perform best when working for self than for others -- is as valid as any, but I am not sure what else it has to offer. Nothing, I suspect, by way of implementation and enforcement. Suppose I am self-employed and my firm prospers and assumes corporate dimensions. What if choose not to avail myself of the corporate veil? At what point will you step in and parcel out the fruits of my travail? And what will you do if I make do with no employees but rely on subcontractors and outsourcing? When it comes to bettering oneââ¬â¢s own condition human ingenuity knows no bounds and who is to say at what point the enrichment occurs at the expense of others?
The problem, even with principles, is that in all cases we are left with determining suitable behaviour and yielding appropriate power to effect it. The type of capitalism we have, and can have, depends on: 1) available power to shape human behaviour, and 2) quality or diversity of the population that is governed, i.e., the gap between exploiters and exploitees. What do I wish for? First, do I get to play Caesar or President?