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Thread ID: 4731 | Posts: 1 | Started: 2003-02-01
2003-02-01 09:37 | User Profile
Immigrants sustain demographics
By Jens Friedmann Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Since birth rates started to really decline in the late 1970s, doom-mongers have drawn up scenarios of a dying German populace, underlined by images of empty kindergartens, apartments and offices. Today, more than one million empty apartments in eastern Germany once again nurture such visions. Predictions that the German population will decline by 200,000 a year would see entire cities disappear from the German map, with real estate assets becoming an investment graveyard. Indeed deaths have outnumbered births for many years. In 2000, about 839,000 people died while only 767,000 babies were born. Nonetheless, the German population has actually expanded steadily since the mid-1980s, from 77.6 million to 82.3 million in 2000, according to the Federal Statistics Office. The increase was caused by the inflow of immigrants, with about 370,000 foreigners emigrating to Germany in 1999 and 2000.
Many experts reckon with another immigration wave as a result of the EU's eastward enlargement from 2004 because wages in Germany are considerably higher than in neighboring accession countries. And more Turks might flock to Germany if the EU decided to admit Turkey a few years from now. Thanks to its growing foreign component, the German population thus does not have to fear for severe shrinkage in the next 10 to 20 years.
Meanwhile, migration within Germany is yielding winners and losers. The biggest winners are economically thriving cities. Towns such as Lüneburg, a quaint small town near Hamburg, are coveted places of residence. Cities with badly battered labor markets, such as Wilhelmshaven, lose out. But trends can change if cities manage to lureinvestment and new jobs. Leipzig is one example. Thanks to its successful settlement policy, the city now has a high-growth image and attracts investors and residents with low rents, highly-skilled labor, a modern airport and little red tape.