← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Sertorius
Thread ID: 20760 | Posts: 15 | Started: 2005-10-26
2005-10-26 14:51 | User Profile
The Christian Science Monitor - csmonitor.com
from the October 26, 2005 edition - [url]http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1026/p04s01-woeu.html[/url]
Russia, China looking to form 'NATO of the East'? A six-member group, seeking to balance US power, meets in Moscow Wednesday.
By Fred Weir | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
MOSCOW - Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.
The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.
One initiative that core members Russia and China agree on, experts say, is to squeeze US influence - which peaked after 9/11 - out of the SCO's neighborhood. "Four years ago, when the SCO was formed, official Washington pooh-poohed it and declared it was no cause for concern," says Ariel Cohen, senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Now they're proven wrong."
Wednesday's meeting is expected to review security cooperation, including a spate of upcoming joint military exercises between SCO members' armed forces. It may also sign off on a new "Contact Group" for Afghanistan. That would help Russia and China - both concerned about increased opium flows and the rise of Islamism - develop direct relations between SCO and the Afghan government. While this will be highly controversial given the presence of NATO troops and Afghans' bitter memories of fighting Russian occupation throughout the 1980s, the Russians have an "in" because they still have longstanding allies in the country.
In attendance Wednesday will be prime ministers of member states Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as top officials from several recently added "observer" states, including Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi.
The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US influence in the region.
"Moscow is seeking options to demonstrate - to Washington in the first place - that Russia is still an important player in this area," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a partner of the US bimonthly journal Foreign Affairs. "China's ambitions are growing fast, and it also wants to turn the SCO into something bigger and more effective."
Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."
An SCO summit last June demanded that the US set a timetable to remove the bases it put in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with Moscow's acquiescence in the wake of 9/11. In July, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov ordered the US base at Karshi-Khanabad to evacuate by year's end.
But two recent visits to Kyrgyzstan by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to have secured the US lease on that country's Manas airbase indefinitely - albeit with a sharp rent increase.
"There is nothing to cheer about," says Mr. Cohen. "Washington has signaled to the Russians that we won't be seeking any new bases in Central Asia. Basically, we are doing nothing to counter the moves against us."
In joint maneuvers last August, Russian strategic bombers, submarines, and paratroopers staged a mock invasion of a "destabilized" far eastern region with Chinese troops. This month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov proposed holding the first Indian-Chinese-Russian war games under SCO sponsorship. "In principle, this is possible," he said. "The SCO was formed as an organization to deal with security issues."
Should states like India and Iran join, the SCO's sway could spread into South Asia and the Middle East. "India sees observer status [in the SCO] as a steppingstone to full membership," says a Moscow-based Indian diplomat who asked not to be named. But he added that India, which has recently improved its relations with the US, does not want to send an anti-US message. "We would hope the Americans would understand our desire to be inside the SCO, rather than outside," he says.
While the SCO's potential looks vast on paper, experts say internal rivalries would preclude it from evolving into a NATO-like security bloc. "What kind of allies could Russia and China be?" says Akady Dubnov, an expert with the Vremya Novostei newspaper. "The main question for them in Central Asia is who will gain the upper hand."
Still, the idea of a unified eastern bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US," says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. "Step by step we're building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US."
Says Cohen: "Eventually they'll wake up to this challenge in Washington. But will it be too late?"
[url]www.csmonitor.com[/url] | Copyright é 2005 The Christian Science Monitor. All rights reserved. For permission to reprint/republish this article, please email Copyright
2005-10-26 15:45 | User Profile
Sounds like the beginnings of another Cold War. The neocons' reckless use of US power to "spread democracy" (read: weaken Islamic nationalism and its resistance to Israeli dominance) is causing the most potentially dangerous nuclear powers in the world to unite against us.
[quote=Sertorius]Not to worry, though. We still have Israel as an "ally". The dispensationalists ought to have fun with this. LOL, you got that right. Nothing gives them the warm fuzzies like increasing world destabilization. "Israel and the US against the world! With God on our team, we can't lose!" :wacko:
2005-10-27 15:22 | User Profile
Still, the idea of a unified eastern bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US," [B]says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement,[/B] whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. "Step by step we're building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US."
[/QUOTE]This sounds just like what [URL="http://www.originaldissent.com/forums/showpost.php?p=97531&postcount=1"]Dugin predicted,[/URL] no?
2005-10-27 15:32 | User Profile
I guess they still read Sun Tsu in Beijing. They don't even have to fight a war to get at that 'northern resource area'. They can just build some Wal-Marts in Moscow and the pacified Russians will sip vodka and watch pirated movies. Hmmm...
2005-10-27 16:07 | User Profile
Sipping vodka is for pussies. Gulping is more like it. And today it's more and more beer rather than vodka, I hear.
2005-10-27 16:49 | User Profile
What else is happening in the Motherland, mad? Could they really return to communism? Are they gonna do a devil's bargain with Islam like the French? What did GWB see in Puteypoot's eyes? Could they kowtow to the Chinese?
2005-10-27 16:57 | User Profile
[QUOTE=madrussian]Sipping vodka is for pussies. Gulping is more like it. And today it's more and more beer rather than vodka, I hear.[/QUOTE]
I hope is "Bud Lite" hate to see those crazy Russians going around killing each other :tank:
2005-10-27 19:03 | User Profile
[QUOTE]"With God on our team, we can't lose!"[/QUOTE] Angler,
You knew where I was going with this. :lol:
Okie,
Exactly.
2005-10-28 00:38 | User Profile
[QUOTE]Writing in "Argumenty i fakty," No.1, Eurasia party leader Aleksandr Dugin said that in 2005 U.S.-Russian relations will become more tense because the two countries "have strictly opposing geopolitical interests." Dugin, who is known for his anti-American sentiments, said he believes that the United States is seeking global hegemony, while Russia is striving to restore its status as a world power. To this end, Moscow is attempting to reinforce its influence in the CIS and actively cooperate with Asian states. "This [political course] cannot end any other way but in direct conflict with the United States," Dugin wrote. Because Russia is unable to solve its problems - including economic ones - alone, it will look for alliances with practically all countries, but especially with those that oppose the United States, Dugin concluded.
Russia will develop its relations with the countries of "old Europe," such as Germany, France, and Spain, "which will passively help Russia," Dugin wrote in "Argumenty i fakty," No.1. "Germany and France, which realize their vital dependence on Russian [natural] resources, will look to approach Russia behind the scenes," he added. Russia will also develop its ties with China, especially if it manages to reach agreement on controlling the migration of Chinese to Eastern Siberia. As for Japan, it is very profitable for Tokyo to look for rapprochement with Moscow, regardless of a solution to the Kurile Islands problem, Dugin wrote.
Dugin also wrote in "Argumenty i fakty," No.1, that in 2005 Russia will begin a rapprochement with some Muslim states. Such countries as Syria, Iran, and even Saudi Arabia will resist the U.S. "Broader Middle East and North Africa" initiative and will seek support against it everywhere, but primarily in Russia, Dugin wrote. Finally, in 2005 Russia may revive its relations with old Soviet clients in Southeast Asia and Latin America, such as Vietnam and Cuba. "In 2005 there will be a new round of the 'Great Game' between Eurasia and the Atlantic region," Dugin concludes. Observers noted that although Dugin often expresses extremist views, his article in "Argumenty i fakty" is notable as it is a popular mainstream weekly with a circulation of 3 million. [/QUOTE][QUOTE=Sertorius]Okie,
Exactly.[/QUOTE]I'm a little leary and puzzled by the Russian-Chinese connection. I don't see what ties or interests Russia has there, and I suspect its just guarding its flanks. The whole far-east thing seems overdone. I can't imagine what nations like India and China (still technically at war) have to do with each other.
On the other hand a real interest and opportunity for Russia appears to be in the middle east, It has historic ties with all the Arab and associated (Iran) nations we are busy bullying and alienating right now. Plus the mideast still has oil.
Since 1990 they've kept a low profile there in deference and respect to us. A deference and respect which we certainly haven't proved ourselves worthy of there.
Overall though, I'm just skeptical of what Dugin's concept of "Eurasia" really means. I suspect Russia's real interests and orientation will remain where its and promises have always been, and that's not in the direction of Siberia (even if global warming really takes off :lol:)
2005-10-28 16:37 | User Profile
[QUOTE=Gregor]What else is happening in the Motherland, mad? Could they really return to communism? Are they gonna do a devil's bargain with Islam like the French? What did GWB see in Puteypoot's eyes? Could they kowtow to the Chinese?[/QUOTE] Communism as an idelogy has been dead for many decades. It was Jewish at its beginning to start with.
As far as Islam is concerned, historically there have always been lots of muslims in Russia, but of much less fundamental variety (if you discount Chechens, but those are a special case nuts that should be properly dealt with the same tactics used against warlike Indian tribes). On the other hand, Russians are very much "xenophobic" and are brought up to hate "dark" foreign invaders -- the heritage of the wars with the Mongols and Turks. Therefore I can't see a concious "deal" with radical muslims.
The Chinks are yet an unknown danger except for those living in border regions. Again, with Russians being so xenophobic I can see a backlash if too many chinks move to Russia. As far as dealing with them economically, there's no escape from that, unless Russians rebuild their manufacturing base. Even then, it will be hard to compete with slave-like labor in China.
2005-10-28 18:11 | User Profile
Thanks man. Just wondered if that Zhirinovsky(?) guy and his crowd had gained any traction. Any country with that many nukes, and God knows what else, should not be allowed to disintegrate into chaos. But I worry more about China, of course. At least till their new found unequal prosperity causes the peasants to rise up in unrest.
Is there much of a Zionist influence over the Putin administration, do you know?
2005-10-28 18:38 | User Profile
Somthing that you don't read to much about is the fact that part of Russia will soon be part of China thanks to the "millions" of illegal Chinese that has gone into Russia right next to China, the same as CA amd Tex going to the Mexicans.
By the way Madrusian did you know that the name for Vodka came from "water of life"?
2005-11-01 12:46 | User Profile
Russia-China cooperation fruitful: foreign ministry
Marked progress has been made in the strategic partnership between Russia and China in recent years, with bilateral cooperation yielding tangible results, according to the Russian foreign ministry.
Russia and China are now clear of any major political issue that might trouble bilateral relations, this favorable situation enables both sides to concentrate on developing their ties in wide-ranging fields, Mikhail Kamynin, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said in a recent statement.
Kamynin described the bilateral ties between Russia and China as "irreversible."
The first joint military exercise, code-named Peace Mission 2005, was a clear manifestation of the high-level mutual trust and understanding between the two countries and it highlighted the new level of cooperation in the Russia-China strategic partnership, the Russian diplomat said.
The joint maneuver also demonstrated that the two countries have joined hands in tackling new threats and challenges, safeguarding their national interests and territorial integrity and working together to shape a new, fair and multi-polar world, he said.
On the two countries' economic cooperation, Kamynin said that Russia expects Chinese investment to enter its processing sector first, in particular the agribusinesses, timber and fishing processing industries.
The two sides can also cooperate in large infrastructure projects like highways, bridges, and modernization of existing ports, he said, adding that Russia's special economic zones will work well in attracting Chinese investors.
Bilateral trade is expected to hit 27 billion US dollars this year, Kamynin said. The current priority of the two countries is to shift the focus from trade to cooperation in production, mutual investment and joint research and development of advanced technologies, he said.
Kamynin listed energy equipment, civil aviation, ecology, energy saving and information technologies as potential areas of joint work.
Source: Xinhua People's Daily Online --- [url]http://english.people.com.cn/[/url] [url]http://english.people.com.cn/200510/31/print20051031_217830.html[/url]
2005-11-01 14:03 | User Profile
Do you know that the Rapture Bunny Zionuts believe that Russia and China are going to invade the United States? Yes, in the Zionuts misinterpretation of the Book of Revelation, they believe that Russia and China will join armies to fight against the US in the Battle of Armaggedon. Seeing that this article comes from CS Monitor is no coincidence.
2005-11-01 14:11 | User Profile
XM,
Yes, I did. I recently read a column on one of the "christian"zioNut websites claiming this idiocy.