← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · JoseyWales
Thread ID: 19861 | Posts: 11 | Started: 2005-08-28
2005-08-28 19:56 | User Profile
im trying to figure out which way entergy stocks will go when the markets open monday. oil is most likely going to spike tomorrow morning, but many oil derek platforms in the gulf are likely to get smacked which will cut production.
2005-08-28 20:39 | User Profile
Dunno. I have friends and family in both the Keys and south La and am more concerned with their homes not being destroyed.
Still hoping there's a chance Katrina will veer off a few degrees and blow out to sea....
2005-08-28 22:14 | User Profile
I do not think oil production will be hurt and I do not think there will be much of a spike in the oil market, maybe a small one. The hurricane is not going to do any real damage to overall oil production.
2005-08-28 22:36 | User Profile
[QUOTE=Faust]I do not think oil production will be hurt and I do not think there will be much of a spike in the oil market, maybe a small one. The hurricane is not going to do any real damage to overall oil production.[/QUOTE] The way this latest wrath of God is going; we may see New Orleans & the Mississippi River Valley destroyed.
Notice the TV reports that there is no gasoline available in Louisana---you will have at best a huge production-distrubution bottleneck. Even if the platforms ride it out with only some damage.
2005-08-28 23:44 | User Profile
The La gov has already predicted $70-a-barrel as of midweek due to shutdowns/damage to prod'n and distrb'n.
I rode out a few Cat 2s and one 3 while I was down there, but a 5 is a [I]whole [/I] other proposition. Compounding the grim forecast is the sheer size of Katrina. I was hoping that a last-minute angling off of the stormpath might spare the Gulf Coast but now realize there's no hope of that....now I have to hope for a lessening of intensity before it hits land or a [I]rapid [/I] lessening right after. But even the best-case scenario means a Cat 4 and the enormous size of this bitch means a ton of damage to everybody in the coastal areas. It may get very bad in Miss because the evacuatons began so late - I've heard the interstate out of Biloxi described as "a parking lot". The mental picture of all those families logjammed in all those cars, standing still, in 150mph+ winds and 25-foot swells is - to say the least - sobering. You religiously-inclined folks should please pray for Louisiana and Mississippi tonight.
2005-08-29 00:07 | User Profile
Being stuck in traffic in an economy car with all your family stuck in it must suck pretty bad.
2005-08-29 04:23 | User Profile
[QUOTE=JoseyWales]im trying to figure out which way entergy stocks will go when the markets open monday[/QUOTE]
I would guess a slight gap down, but since the damage will be known relatively quickly, I would not be surprised if the they recover quickly.
2005-08-29 12:53 | User Profile
folks, oil already hit $70/bl in overnight trading. we will probably see $70 today in us markets
2005-08-29 12:55 | User Profile
Hmmm, Maybe there is something to Pat Robertson and his dealings with hurricanes. He opens his mouth about Chavez of Venezuela and not only does the US get a catagory five hurricane a few days later, but the oil refineries along the Gulf to close. I didn't know this about fuel shipment via barge to Florida, but it makes me wonder about this when I consider who the governor is.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
HURRICANE KATRINA: Gulf oil refineries close; fuel costs likely to spike Prices may rise before Labor Day Martha Brannigan, Douglas Hanks III - Knight Ridder Newspapers Monday, August 29, 2005
Miami --- New Orleans stood dead in the path of Hurricane Katrina, but the entire nation will feel the brunt of the powerful storm if oil and gas operations in the Gulf get whacked.
Roughly 30 percent of the oil and gas consumed in the United States flows along pipelines or is hauled in on tankers and barges in the Gulf Coast.
A major hit would disrupt fuel shipments and send prices soaring even higher right before the Labor Day holiday, when more than 34 million Americans are projected to hit the road.
The impact was immediate Sunday night on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as crude oil futures spiked $4.50 per barrel, putting the cost above $70 for the first time since oil began trading there in 1983. Every additional $1 per barrel translates into more than 2 cents in the price of a gallon of gasoline.
Gas prices already are up an average 83 cents a gallon this year.
"Monday morning, take every penny in your wallet and invest in oil, because the hurricane is projected to come in in the heart of the gas and oil port," said Ted Falgout, director of Port of Fourchon, a key oil and gas hub that sits 60 miles south of New Orleans on the Gulf of Mexico.
"Prices are going to go up."
Florida in particular would feel the impact: As much as 90 percent of the state's gasoline arrives by ship from oil refineries along the Mississippi River.
Gov. Jeb Bush warned the fuel supplies at Florida ports, which seemed ample on Friday, now will not be enough in view of the shutdown of the refineries off the Louisiana coast as Katrina approached.
"There are localized fuel shortages, and my expectation is those will continue," he said.
"We're encouraging people to use fuel responsibly and leave fuel for their neighbors."
"It's not going to be pretty," said Jim Smith, president of the Florida Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association.
"We're totally dependent on that water-borne route."
The possibility of a Category 5 hurricane hitting a major fuel port has industry executives warning of more serious, long-term turmoil.
"If damage is extensive --- to platforms, to pipelines under the sea and to the connections of pipes --- the impact is longer-lasting," said John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, in Washington.
Sidney Coffee, executive assistant to the Louisiana Governor's Office for coastal activity, said the poor condition of the region's wetlands has left the oil pipelines more exposed and thus more vulnerable to damage by a hurricane.
"Many of the pipelines are open to conditions. There's going to be a lot of damage," she predicted.
"The loss of life is the main worry, and we hope that won't happen. But after that, everybody is going to be worried about oil." She added: "With gas prices where they are already, now what?"
Smith, of the Florida petroleum group, said crude oil supplies don't worry him too much --- the United States government keeps a 30-day supply on reserve for emergencies --- but that a string of damaged refineries would leave the nation short on processing capacity.
"There's a huge amount of refineries that are going to have to go down," he said. [url]http://www.ajc.com/today/content/epaper/editions/today/news_34215bc46262e16200d1.html[/url]
2005-08-29 16:51 | User Profile
August 29, 2005 Busy Day Posted by Charles Featherstone at August 29, 2005
It's going to be a very busy and very interesting day for world energy markets today. The NY light, sweet crude contract has already traded at $70 in Singapore. The results of Katrina are likely to make things much, much worse.
The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is closed. It is the only terminal in the US capable of receiving very large oil tankers, such as those used to ship Saudi or Venezuelan crude to the US. Much of the US Gulf of Mexico crude output is probably shut in right now, and will likely remain shut in for some time to come. Shipping will also be disrupted for a while, too. Refining is also concentrated on the Gulf coast. If a large enough number of refineries are closed -- and stay closed -- gasoline prices will skyrocket.
If that is not bad enough, the Henry Hub in Louisiana is closed too. It is the main -- I think possibly the only -- point where US Gulf natural gas flows into the continental US natural gas network. The folks at the New York Mercantile Exchange are having an emergency meeting about this (the Henry Hub is the price point for NY natgas futures). A lengthy closure will cause problems for traded natural gas.
And could cause a major crisis for natural gas in the US as soon as this week if it closed too long. With all the focus on oil, no one has paid much attention to the fact that natural gas production in North America has been declining for the last several years and, aside from the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the Alaska North Slope and the McKenzie Delta (the gas from Alaksa and northern Canada will likely not its way south before 2010), there is not enough gas out there to meet rising demand (especially for power generation). Americans are heavily dependent on the Gulf for natgas and oil, and lengthy outages or severe damage to capacity will only tighten the squeeze on energy markets.
This will only get worse, by the way. Mexico's big onshore field, the Cantarell, which provides Pemex with about 3 million barrels per day, is beginning to decline, and over the next few years Cantarell output is expected to fall dramatically. Unless Mexico can field the resources to drill in its deepwater section of the Gulf, Mexico will -- sometime in the next 10 years -- likely become an oil importer.
If it is a very cold winter this year, heating -- regardless of whether you do it with gas, oil or electricity -- is going to become very, very expensive. I would advise everyone who lives in a cold clime to prepare for the worst, buy a few thick blankets, and find someone to snuggle with.
For everyone else who has built their lives on lengthy commutes by car from where they live to where they work, gasoline is very likely going to be expensive for some time to come. I've never understood the desire to drive to work (I hate it myself) a long way from pristine suburb to inner city (or suburb to suburb), but you have a couple of choices -- suck it up, move closer to work, or work closer to home.
The war for resources -- the "kicking their ass and taking their gas" -- is not working. And won't. So give up on it. [url]http://blog.lewrockwell.com/lewrw/archives/008758.html#more[/url]
2005-08-29 17:42 | User Profile
T.D.,
You know something about this. What do you think?