← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Jack Cassidy
Thread ID: 14924 | Posts: 1 | Started: 2004-09-07
2004-09-07 23:15 | User Profile
The scenario was laid out well in the latest issue of the The American Conservative. When the attack is launched against Iran-- by either the U.S. or Israel-- all hell will break loose. A possible scenario is the unleashing of Iranian fighters and operatives across/into Iraq to hit U.S. forces. As many as 400 U.S. soldiers could be killed in the initial day of fighting. But the analysis doesn't go into the long-term Vietnam-esque insurgency that would follow, IMO. In Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan, there was logistical, weapons, and manpower support from a bordering country. So far in Iraq this hasn't existed, there have merely been pockets of resistance with extremely localized coordination. It is a wonder that random non-coordinated RPGs, IEDs, and AK-47 shots have killed over a thousand U.S. soldiers in a little over a year. I think the number of U.S. soldiers killed in the past year in Iraq is higher than the first three years in Vietnam. Nasty guerrilla wars take time to get going full-swing. It takes a while for the enemy guerrillas to learn what works and what doesn't-- i.e., to get good at killing. The Soviets kicked butt for years in Afghanistan, and it is certainly true that they were thousands of times closer to victory than the U.S. is in Iraq. The Soviets didn't have the armor or firepower of the current U.S. force in Iraq, yet in spite of this they still didn't have "no-go" zones like the U.S. military has in Fallujah, Ramadi, and many other places. Granted, the U.S. military will not have the same levels of casualties it did in the height of Vietnam largely because of better armor, technology, and almost non-existent foliage, but if Iran says "all bets are off" after an Israeli or U.S. attack, than there will be a ramping up of the Iraq conflict to a real war and U.S. casualties counts will go up by a factor of five or ten. If one suicide bomber can kill 8 U.S. Marines, imagine what legions of coordinated Iranian Islamic kamikazees can do?