← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Faust
Thread ID: 14546 | Posts: 3 | Started: 2004-07-15
2004-07-15 21:37 | User Profile
The Oil Rig
Only a very patriotic fool believes that Bush War 2 is not an oil war (ââ¬Â¦and a holy war to sandbag the tender flanks of Israel.) To grasp the worldwide importance of this conflict, attention should be kept on the global oil business, not just on events in the Middle East.
Now that gasoline hovers at two dollars a gallon and the price is fueling inflation, why isn't the the flow of Iraqi oil having a greater impact on gas prices? And why have the other Arabic oil producing nations just recently decided to boost production? Why would Saudi Arabia decide to pump more oil into the market with crude selling for over $40 per barrel? Don't the laws of supply and demand apply to oil?
Before the Iraqi war began, oil was predicted to go up in price due to the disruption of supply; never mind that the most of the Western nations were not importing much Iraqi oil. The petroleum-rich Arab states that ring Iraq assured the world that there would be no shortages, but didn't guarantee any bargains, either. Once American forces became mired in the violent aftermath of the defeat of Saddam Hussein, the Arabs cut production. At first glance, it appears that the Arabs and OPEC simply took advantage of the chaos to make a quick war profit off the hapless Americans. But the Arabs may end up being the dupes.
The Arabic/Islamic nations have long been the major suppliers of oil to the industrialized world. This dominion over so crucial a commodity, and the power to control its price, have held the industialized nations hostage for thirty years. With oil now selling at record prices, other oil producing countries can increase production and profits. Chief among these competitors is Russia.
The target of the Iraqi war was not weapons of mass destruction, nor the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, nor the threat of terrorism. The purpose of the war was to put American military might astride the vast oil reserves of the Middle East and Eurasia.This stategic gambit assures American economic hegemony not only over the bulk of the world's energy, but over the European economic alliances and emerging Russian capitalism as well. America and Britain are now in the position to regulate the price- and supply- of oil for the rest of the world.
So why should America, in economic trouble at home, strain the budget to militarize Iraq, apparently on a permanent basis? Why should American national interests, and lives, be put in perpetual peril just to hold the oil spigot? Because America needs an economic stranglehold to check the geopolitical and global trade ambitions of China (The brief deployment of Japanese troops to Iraq was the first hint to China of what to expect) and to yank the leash on the galloping economic growth of India, and the Pacific Rim nations.
The rapid momentum of Chinese industrial growth will soon challenge Western economic dominance in a serious way. To continue to prosper, the Chinese will need more and more oil. The available reserves in the Far East are insufficient to keep China's motor running. Eventually, China will have to barter for crude; politically and diplomatically, with the American oil-lords in the Middle East. The situation is not so different from the EurasianTocharians who controlled trade along the Silk Road a thousand years ago. China, therefore, will sooner or later be coerced into putting a hammerlock on rogue North Korea.
Meanwhile, Russia struggles to keep its economy afloat. Quite bluntly, oil IS the Russian economy. So long as oil continues to sell at $40 per barrel, Russian capitalism will continue to flourish. But gone are the days when the Russians monopolized oil supplies to the captive Eastern Bloc. Russia may prove to have the largest oil reserves in the world, but antiquated Soviet-era drilling methods have, until recently, kept the oil out of reach. The more oil Russia sells at $40 per barrel, the more investment capital becomes available to develop more oil fields. Russian oil, too, will prove a valuable pressure point for dealing with the Chinese. (Eventually, Russia may supply most of China's oil, freeing up reserves for the West.)
And what of poor little Israel? With Saddam Hussein gone, Israel's dispair over Iraqi missiles and other things that go bump in the night should have gone away. Though distracted by Palestinian trouble at home, the Israelis still lurk in the shadows of the Iraqi chaos. (Just what "business" was Nick Berg doing in Iraq before he lost his head?) The Israelis probably guess that the American-sponsored Iraqi government will disintegrate and be replaced by a patchwork of ethno-Islamic territories; with tribe against tribe and Imam against Imam as happened in Afghanistan. With Iraq shattered to pieces, Israel will be covered by the smoke and noise civil war while the pipeline to Haifa is built. By such cloak and dagger methods the New World Order cobbles together its bloody empire.
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2004-07-16 06:55 | User Profile
Well, I must be a fool as I don't believe Iraq was an oil war. Exactly how much percentage of oil did we get from Iraq...perhaps say...10 percent. Oh please, like we couldn't have altered that factor.
The plain fact is Islam had a major problem that they were unable to handle and didn't care to. The schooled evil and that was a problem for us as they attacked us over and over. You are wrong to think the same ideas that the Jews teach you throught the media. The Jews try there best to get the heat of them and tell you all these misconceptions because they work for Satan. Do you really believe the Jewish media? I thought the people on this site were intelligent and knew the difference!
2004-07-16 09:39 | User Profile
[QUOTE]Meanwhile, Russia struggles to keep its economy afloat. Quite bluntly, oil IS the Russian economy. So long as oil continues to sell at $40 per barrel, Russian capitalism will continue to flourish. But gone are the days when the Russians monopolized oil supplies to the captive Eastern Bloc. Russia may prove to have the largest oil reserves in the world, but antiquated Soviet-era drilling methods have, until recently, kept the oil out of reach. The more oil Russia sells at $40 per barrel, the more investment capital becomes available to develop more oil fields. Russian oil, too, will prove a valuable pressure point for dealing with the Chinese. (Eventually, Russia may supply most of China's oil, freeing up reserves for the West.)[/QUOTE]
Russia's big issue is not supply but delivery capacity. It's pipelines are already operating at full capacity, and figuring out new ways to get the stuff to market is a big factor in all this.
The Yukos flap had much to do, in my opinion, with the issue of whether to build a pipeline from central Siberia all the way to the markets of northern China, thus granting China major levarage as Russia's only customer at that terminus, or to go the "all-Russia" route around the bend of the Amur River and to Vladivostok (much, much further, but also leaving Russia free to dicker with more than one customer). Khodorkovsky (and Israel) wanted the former, the Russian generals behind Putin wanted the latter. The question has yet to be decided.
The Arab countries were just so damned lucky with this thing. A number of factors go into the cost of a delivered barrel of oil, including quality of the resource, factors affecting extraction costs like proximity to the surface, and location near ports. The Arabs really had it all. High quality crude easy to drill for and near deep water ports strategically located to supply the world. The Russians don't have it nearly so good. Last figures I read, it costs the Arabs about $5/barrell to extract and deliver oil, but it costs the Russians 2.5 times that. Of course, with crude prices as high as they are, everybody's making money, but Russians really get slammed when they dip down below $20/barrell.
And given the entire Russian economy's dependence on crude oil exports, it leaves Russia at the mercy of the world markets. Putin's plan is to increase capacity - especially delivery capacity - and then when the price drops he can even out the bumps by simply selling more oil. It should work, too. But they have a hard time getting those pipelines financed.
My $.02
Walter