← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Kurt
Thread ID: 12713 | Posts: 6 | Started: 2004-03-12
2004-03-12 05:30 | User Profile
Robert Locke rips all the ââ¬Åhigh-birth rate mongersââ¬Â a new one.
We Donââ¬â¢t Need to ââ¬ÅGrowââ¬Â
By Robert Locke
(link: [url]http://www.vdare.com/locke/grow.htm[/url])
One of the most fallacious arguments for open borders is that we need immigrants to raise the birth rate, lest America begin to shrink and decline.
But is this really true? This depends on whether:
A) A higher birth rate is desirable; and
B) Is admitting immigrants the right way to replenish a countryââ¬â¢s population?
The answer to both questions is noââ¬âfor a long list of reasons:
1) Big Families are not an index of national vitality. Many conservatives are sentimentally attached to high fertility and big families. The positive stereotype of large families carries connotations from the past, when children were expect to help out at harvest-time, and many babies were required to ensure that several survived to adulthood.
But we are now a society that expects to send its children to college, rather than send them out into the fields. We invest intensively on a small brood of children, rather than stretching our resources over a big flock of themââ¬âin part, because each are simply more likely to live.
Surely it is no accident that those cultures most famous for their interest in education (Jews, Japanese, Scots) also tend to have low birthrates.
True, the teeming slums of the Third World (or of Europe in Karl Marxââ¬â¢s day) have a certain crude vitalityââ¬âbut painfully lack most of the attributes of decent life, in part because of their burgeoning populations.
2) This has nothing to do with abortion. The abortion issue is sometimes dragged into the question of population. But it has little connection, as abortion is only oneââ¬âextremeââ¬âmeans of birth control. Any given birth rate can be accompanied by either a high or a low abortion rate. The key variable is not the birth rate as such but the choice of family vs. abortion. A high birth rate may even encourage abortion in the long runââ¬âas see in the case of place such as China and India. If we overpopulate this country to the same degree, we may end up with their population policies: forced abortions in the former and forced sterilization in the latter.
3) Small families arenââ¬â¢t a sign of national decline. It is sometimes suggested that a low birth rate represents decadence in the white race or Western society. But non-white advanced industrial democracies such as Japan show the exact same pattern. In fact, Japanââ¬â¢s birth rate collapsed harder than ours did, as Japan had no baby boom after WWII. If anything, falling birth-rates are simply an index of industrializationââ¬âa side-effect of the movement of people from the land to the cities.
In fact, a decline in the birth rate is visible in all countries as they ascend the ladder of economic developmentââ¬âwith some variance for cultural peculiarities such as the pro-natalist beliefs of Mormons or Orthodox Jews. To use economic jargon: the richer a country is, the higher the opportunity cost of children, and therefore the fewer children. Francis Fukuyamaââ¬â¢s analysis of this phenomenon in The Great Disruption is the best I know.
4) Weââ¬â¢re not fighting a breeding war. The idea that we need a high birth rate in order to win some sort of population arms race is ludicrous. For a start, there isnââ¬â¢t a population arms race as such: there is only the need to maintain a large enough population to defend the homeland, and a large enough native population to maintain demographic dominance vis-à-vis resident foreigners. This is a question of border control, not fertility.
Britain at the height of her empire had a population of 40 million and ruled 600 million subjects. She now has 60 million and is a minor power. Armed self-defense depends far more upon foreign policy, national will, technology, and other factors than it does on raw population. Just ask the 1.3 billion Moslems who, as Prime Minister Mahathir of Malaysia recently pointed out, are daily defied by 5 million Israelis.
In fact, stable or slowly shrinking population is not a problem at allââ¬âunless we make the mistake of allowing foreigners into our country to displace us. So long as they stay in their own countries, they can breed all they want, as this will only result in their remaining poor and underdeveloped. Many of them, such as the 1.8 billion peasants in India and China, have essentially zero interest in us, anyway.
5) We only have one planet. Taken to its logical consequence, a worldwide demographic arms race would spell ecological catastrophe. One does not have to buy into environmental extremism to grasp that a larger population puts a greater burden on finite natural resources. Even if we donââ¬â¢t reach an absolute breaking point, larger populations will still force us to accept more government regulation, to ration the shrinking supply of space and resourcesââ¬âa point libertarian immigration promoters never grasp.
6) America is doing just fine, thank you very much. The current demographic forecast for this country for native-born Americans shows a demographically mature society. If you take immigration out of the picture, we would have had an essentially stable population since 1970. This is a good thingââ¬âand all the more reason not to allow immigrants to move here and spoil our achievement, which is particularly precious because we have done it without government coercion. China would just love to be where we are.
7) Growth is not good in itself. From many points of view, a stable population is ideal, but even a gradually-declining one is acceptable within reasonable parameters. It would have lots of benefits that no one bothers to trumpet.
The gains to the environment are obvious. But has anyone thought of how nice it would be to knock down the slums of Newark and replace them with an environment more fit for a middle-class nation? Of how pleasant it would be to drive around Los Angeles without spending oneââ¬â¢s life in traffic? Of how much more humane college admissions would be if there werenââ¬â¢t ten applicants for every place at prestigious universities? Of what a tight labor market would do for the wages of the American working class? Of what it would mean to have a continually-increasing capital to labor ratio in the economy?
8) We donââ¬â¢t need population growth to support the aged. The last canard in favor of population growth is the myth of Social Security. It is said that Social Security and similar programs will collapse without population growth a.k.a. immigration because of the declining ratio of workers to beneficiaries.
False!ââ¬âbecause the economic burden that actually matters is the ratio of all non-workers to workers. Non-workers includes not just retirees but children. Given that a low birth rate reduces the number of children in a way that comes close to balancing the increase in the number of retirees, the total burden on the working population in a stable society would not significantly increase.
We would be spending a lot more on nursing homes and Geritol, but spending much less on elementary schools, minivans, college tuition, orthodontia, and 4-bedroom suburban houses.
Given the cost of raising children today, and the fact that many of them nowadays donââ¬â¢t become net contributors to the economy until after four years of college (plus two or three years of graduate school), this declining burden would be substantial.
Insofar as Social Security does present minor problems, these can be dealt with by expedients that have already begun to be used, such as raising the retirement age. Age 65 was not handed down on stone tablets on Mt. Sinai, and medical advances combined with the decreasingly physical nature of most American jobs mean that this is not inhumane.
9) Older societies are more conservative. Hereââ¬â¢s another unexpected benefit of an aging population: a greater overall maturity in the society. We have had since the 1960ââ¬â¢s (the maturation of a Baby Boom) a youth-obsessed culture, with all its disruptive side-effects. Frankly, a little gray hair might do us some good in terms of becoming a wiser, more sensible society. Conservatives who want to roll back the effects of the counter-culture should think about this.
10) Immigration creates more problems than it solves. The many social costs imposed by mass immigration are well-known to readers of VDARE.COM. Using an influx of foreigners to reverse an imagined national decline because of lower birth rates is a temporary and dangerous expedient, with unpredictable and irreversible results.
No self-respecting conservative would subject his nation to such a reckless experiment.
Robert Locke is in the computer business. He is a founder of the [url=http://www.ccaa.4t.com/]Columbia Conservative Alumni Association[/url] and a former associate editor at FrontPageMagazine.com ([url=http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/authors.asp?ID=6]archive here[/url]).
2004-03-12 13:47 | User Profile
Quite good, thanks Kurt. This is a good argument, one that should be used more often against the relentless media propaganda that "immigrants are good for the economy". Not many would probably listen anyway. Some folks have to learn the hard way.
2004-03-12 17:19 | User Profile
The thing he's missing is Garret Hardin's insight (Tragedy of the Commons) that so long as reduced rates are voluntary, Evolution dictates that human cultures will emerge that ensure high birthrates that ultimately will take over demographically. This is unavoidable, and Hardin foresaw clearly our own predicament as we're being invaded by more fertile peoples.
And even if the demographic differential doesn't come from the outside, it will come from the inside. Given enough time, groups like Mormons, Amish, and traditional Catholics will demographically push out all others and we'll be back to square one in terms of population control.
This would be far preferable to either invasion for the outside or strict state controls on fertility a la China, but I think that the best answer is simply to encourage people to marry, stay married, and have big families. We'll manage our way out of the resource problem, I have tremendous faith in the white race's ability to handle any technical problem thrown its way. For this reason alone, it's essential that we stay white, for our good and the good of the rest of the world.
We need to grow not for economic reasons so much but rather because such is a law of Nature that we are simply powerless to repeal. Locke is a good guy and a fine thinker, but he's really not giving Mother Nature her due here, IMHO.
Walter
2004-03-12 17:44 | User Profile
It's a start, but it would have taken a little more courage for Locke to come out and state the obvious... instead, he is being misleading. The native (white)birthrate of western nations and Japan is not at replacement level but is significantly below. Hence, at some point, the population will become inexorably unstable. Our youthful cohort becomes ever smaller, while our enemies' grows ever larger.
Also, this little bit is stupifyingly ignorant:
"Britain at the height of her empire had a population of 40 million and ruled 600 million subjects. She now has 60 million and is a minor power. Armed self-defense depends far more upon foreign policy, national will, technology, and other factors than it does on raw population. Just ask the 1.3 billion Moslems who, as Prime Minister Mahathir of Malaysia recently pointed out, are daily defied by 5 million Israelis."
If those same moslems were able to organize themselves into something resembling a coherent, unified military entity, this differential in "raw population" would make the defenses of"national will, technology, and other factors", downright insurmountable.
2004-03-12 18:16 | User Profile
I say, let Mother Nature do her work. She has ways of dealing with over-population. The White man needs to step back, and stop getting in nature's way, by always providing food, medicine, financial aid, etc., to non-White populations (the only aid we should be giving them is birth control and sterilizations).
2004-03-13 02:09 | User Profile
What Locke's argument lacks is sound judgment. Of course, 'bigger' is not always better, and 'smaller' is not always worse when it comes to populations and birth rates. The question is whether bigger families would in fact be better for white populations in the present context. The answer is undoubtedly, 'yes,' because we are loosing the ability to control key territories within our nation-states, and we are also loosing our ability to keep ultimate military control of the planet in our hands. Moreover, our sense of vitality and of our future is greatly affected by the low birthrate.
Perhaps the second goal is one we have to surrender. And while we might surrender the first goal of maintaining territory as well, it would be at great cost to our ability to maintain cultural integrity. Again there are the psychological costs to think of as well.
We do not need to be a huge percentage of the world population, but right now we would gain immeasurably by better maintaining our percentages in Western nations; and in Europe & perhaps Australia, we should hope to eventually increase these percentages.
For the US, Canada, Australia & SA, the only other alternative is to eventually set up real 'Aryan nations' in the heartland. Secession might not be required for this, but decentralization and at least limited bloodshed would be. But chances are good that our detractors wouldn't have much of a stomach for violent confrontation with their fellow white American citizens in such a conflict; what is missing is the requisite will. If 150 million Americans or so are racially comfortable with taking the WASP racial 'archtype' as an ideal for their descendents, then perhaps about 30-50 million of these might eventually be won over to separatists ideals. That is quite significant--approaches the population of France--but also obviously a lot of hearts and minds (and wills) to win.
Better that we have enough children so more-limited break from current US governance will be compatible with maintenance of a substantial white population and culture.