← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · Patrick Stockholm
Thread ID: 11240 | Posts: 8 | Started: 2003-11-24
2003-11-24 09:41 | User Profile
In the weekend we all saw the pictures from the former Soviet state of Georgia. Protesters stormed the parliament, ousted the elected, although corrupted, president - And the media is chirrupping the song about "freedom and democracy". Who do you think is behind the revolutionary movement? I saw their leader talking on television, in front of two flags. One red-white resembling the St George cross, and than the blue-yellow EU-flag. The aim with this "velvet revolution" is to pave the way for EU expansion, through Turkey and to the Caspian sea.
Yesterday we could hear on the news that the croacian HDZ-party, the old party of Tudjman, now is pro-EU. Probably they will follow the coattails of Slovenia, who joins the EU next spring.
Itôs the New World Order Government. First they are supporting "nationalist" elements, but only to destabilize the society. Then they turning the "nationalists" to a pro-EU stance. It was exactly what happened in former Yugoslavia.
When a nation is joining the European Union, it practically ceases to exist. In the so called Schengen-area, the member states can not control the immigration. Currently, it is unlikely to see a massive influx of third world immigrants to Slovenia. But the immigrants do always opt for the most prosperous member state. Nowadays, itôs the Eastern european countries which have the highest economical growth rate, so it isnôt unlikely that for example Slovenia will be swamped by turks and arabs within the next decades. The talk about "Fortress Europe" and Blairôs boast about "halving the number of asylum seekers" is just balderdash. The immigration to Europe is unabated.
I am not a conservative myself, but I find this forum very interesting.
2003-11-24 15:47 | User Profile
I noted in one article on this event that work on a 2.2bn British Petroleum pipeline to transport Central Asian oil is due to begin soon. This may or may not be anything to do with it but these situations don't arise without some sort of controlling force. Itââ¬â¢s also notable that the neo-Soviet EU has very little access to oil within its own borders.
2003-11-26 11:34 | User Profile
[QUOTE=na Gaeil is gile]I noted in one article on this event that work on a 2.2bn British Petroleum pipeline to transport Central Asian oil is due to begin soon. This may or may not be anything to do with it but these situations don't arise without some sort of controlling force. It?s also notable that the neo-Soviet EU has very little access to oil within its own borders.[/QUOTE]
Yeah EU has little acces to oil, but if their palns to establish Euro-army by melting all national armies to it will succeed then they have worlds strongest land-army, and Arab states are connected by land to Eurasian continent. If some oil shortage is imminent maybe they cold use that power to get some oil. If we weren't friends within USA. But I think that friendship within America and Europe will last long to future. After all we both have same big business multiculties in power and they have same goals.
(Possible EU army would have far more manpower than American army, it has quite modern equipment, more modern tanks and large modern air forces (over 1500 jet fighters). Only possible navy doesn't match with American navy. It even has enough nuclear deterrent to repel use of that weaponry by potential adversaries.)
2003-11-26 17:05 | User Profile
I remember around the time the Nice Treaty was being debated a very senior European politico openly stated that the purpose of the EU Rapid Reaction Force was ââ¬Åto fight the resource wars of the futureââ¬Â.
2003-11-27 12:16 | User Profile
There is an ethnic factor at work here that the Western media is failing to report; i.e. deep anti-Armenian feelings among Georgian nationalists.
Interestingly, both emerging leaders, Nino Burdzhanadze (her mother is reportedly Armenian) and Mikhail Saakashvili (reportedly born Isaakian) hold themselves out as Georgian nationalsists but are rumoured to be of Armenian ancestry.
Stalin was a Georgian, and he was also Lenin's Nationalities Commisar, in charge of ethnic policy. He gave large chunks of territory belonging to other nationalities to Georgia. Ossetia (aka Alania, the home of the Medieval invaders the Alans) was divided north and south, with Russia taking the north and Georgia taking the south. Abkhazia was handed over to Tbilisi, as was Adjaria, but neither of these (predominantly) Muslim peoples consider themselves Georgian. Stalin also handed over a big chunk of Armenian territory, the Akhalkalaki and Ninotsminda districts, to Georgia - this area is still mainly Armenian.
The Georgians themselves are historically deeply divided among conflicting clans speaking about a dozen dialects of the Georgian language.
My impression is that Georgia is being held together by spit and baling wire. Abkhazia is occupied by Russia. Adjaria is de facto independent. The Ossetians (Alans) want to join their ethnic kin in the Russian Federation, and the Armenians are reportedly making noises about joining the Russian Federation as well.
The Houston Oil Boys and Israel need a contiguous piece of Georgia running from Azerbaidzhan to Turkey for their oil pipeline with a terminus in Ceyhan, Turkey, just across the water a bit from Tel Aviv. This is a key strategic asset - it would supply non-Arab, Caspian oil to Israel, by-passing Russia. I think that's the only reason it hasn't fallen to pieces yet. The Russian press is reporting that Shevarnadze didn't work out with the CIA, and so the CIA arranged this last coup.
Walter
2003-11-28 06:35 | User Profile
This appeared in today's Moscow Times:
[url]http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/11/28/001.html[/url]
If Adjaria and the Armenian areas secede and maybe even join the Russian Federation, this would give Russia a direct road to Iran, with major geopolitical implications, IMHO.
Walter
Friday, Nov. 28, 2003. Page 1
Georgian Regional Bosses in Moscow
By Simon Saradzhyan
Staff Writer Leaders of three independent-minded Georgian regions were to meet late Thursday to discuss what one of them described as "purely economic issues" but what in reality looked like a blunt warning to Tbilisi that any use of force against them could trigger the country's disintegration.
South Ossetia President Eduard Kokoity, Abkhaz Prime Minister Raul Khadzhimba and Adzharian leader Aslan Abashidze took turns holding talks with Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov behind closed doors.
The trio were to sit down together later Thursday for a meeting expected to focus largely on the resignation of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who stepped down Sunday under pressure from the opposition.
"We will only discuss economic issues," Kokoity told Interfax after meeting with Ivanov on Thursday afternoon.
Khadzhimba chose not to make any public statements ahead of the tripartite meeting. Both Kokoity and Khadzhimba have repeatedly said that their provinces would like to join Russia as subjects of the Russian Federation.
The wild card Thursday appeared to be Abashidze, who until recently has avoided any separatist rhetoric. But even he has started to question Georgia's territorial integrity after last weekend's events. "It is difficult to say where Georgia is and where it isn't," Abashidze said Wednesday.
While Abkhazia and South Ossetia fought wars to break away from Georgia, Abashidze chose to incrementally distance his Black Sea region from Tbilisi's control in the 1990s by capitalizing on the weakness of the government and the revenues from port and customs levies.
Abashidze reportedly had been prepared to swap Adzharia's semi-independence for the Georgian presidency, but Shevardnadze's ouster, which brought radical nationalist Mikheil Saakashvili and moderate Nino Burdzhanadze to power, pushed him back into isolation. Burdzhanadze is now serving as interim President, while another moderate opposition leader, Zurab Zhvania, holds the State Minister's post. Saakashvili is widely tipped as favorite to win the upcoming presidential election on Jan. 4.
After seeing Saakashvili and his allies oust Shevardnadze, Abashidze introduced a state of emergency in Adzharia and hinted that the region may even secede if the new Georgian leadership tries to force it into submission. He also has said Adzharia might not take part in presidential and parliamentary elections. The parliamentary vote also is on Jan. 4.
[B]With Abkhazia and South Ossetia already out of Tbilisi's control, the secession of Adzharia could set of a chain reaction in Georgian regions Marneuli and Javakheti, which are mainly populated by Azeris and Armenians, respectively. This could lead to the disintegration of Georgia, analysts warned.[/B] Given the fact that Saakashvili tends to use forceful nationalist rhetoric to gather popular support, the leaders of Georgia's ethnic minorities are concerned he might use force against them if elected president. That is why the leaders of Adzharia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are scrambling to secure Moscow's support, analysts said.
Abashidze's recent actions suggest that he is trying to warn Saakashvili about what might happen if the two men do not strike a deal, said Arthur Martirosyan, program manager at the Conflict Management Group in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Alexander Pikayev, analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center, agreed, saying: "The very fact that these three leaders are meeting is unprecedented and the fact that the meeting is taking place in Moscow is a very strong signal, a warning to Saakashvili."
Saakashvili should have learned from the experience of the late president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who used nationalist rhetoric to become president, only to see South Ossetia secede and a civil war break out, Pikayev and Martirosyan said. As Georgia's armed forces are weak and the economy is in dire straits, it is practically impossible to force the separatist republics back under control, and Saakashvili should focus his efforts on convincing Adzharia to participate in the Jan. 4 elections, Martirosyan said. "This should be his priority task, as any other alternative would mean that whoever wins the elections might be viewed as illegitimate in Adzharia," he said.
In the longer term, the new Georgian leadership should try to revive the economy so that all the regions would have at least a financial reason to cooperate with one another, he said. This could then help build trust and perhaps result in a compromise to restore Georgia's Soviet-era borders. "At the moment, these players view the situation as a zero-sum game, and only joint value-building through, for instance, economic cooperation might be able to help them move toward a solution," Martirosyan said.
2003-11-28 12:33 | User Profile
Take note that NATO was interested in a partnership with Georgia right from the disintegration from the Soviet Union.
[url]http://www.nato.int/pfp/ge/georgia.htm[/url]
2003-11-28 15:33 | User Profile
Hmmm... I wonder how long it will be before we hear reports of wide-spread "ethnic cleansing" and the necessity for massive "peace-keeping" forces.