← Autodidact Archive · Original Dissent · arya
Thread ID: 10799 | Posts: 1 | Started: 2003-10-28
2003-10-28 15:32 | User Profile
India expected to become economic leader
WASHINGTON - By the year 2050, India is projected to become the third largest economy in the world, behind China and the United States, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, a US-based global investment firm.
China, India, Russia and Brazil could outrank the combined economic might of today's Group of Six - the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom - by the middle of this century, says the report.
"The implication is that the economic and financial power is going to shift away from us," says Dominic Wilson, a senior Goldman economist and one of the authors of the report, which sees the US as number two by the year 2050, sandwiched between China and number three India.
In making its forecasts, Goldman doesn't focus on the four developing nations' current economic-growth rates, even though these certainly haven't been too shabby. Instead, using demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity trends, it calculates likely gains in gross domestic product (GDP) and income per capita, and currency movements.
Over the next 50 years, the model assumes that GDP will rise at an average annual clip of 3.8 percent in Brazil, nearly 6 percent in India, 4.7 percent in China, and 3.2 percent in Russia, versus the US projected 1.7 percent. It also assumes that the value of the four nations' currencies will rise.