The Mila Kunis Question - Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Ritz-Carlton in Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk

Randall McMurphy Wednesday 19 Feb 2014

Nic; any word on which direction Ukranian Black Metal is breaking?

Phalluster Wednesday 19 Feb 2014

Inkarri Thursday 20 Feb 2014

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/new-normal-ordinary-men-women-take-arms-kiev-n34156

Thin Privilege Haver Thursday 20 Feb 2014

It must be every LARPer's dream. It is (okay, was) essentially a late medieval warfare in the center of a modern city. Both sides are armed with sticks, helmets and shields; the main goal is about controlling and expanding territory

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(battlepriest)

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(Trebuchet)

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(Plague doctor)

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Feb 2014

Here's what I've got from today:

- the truce from last night was broken by the rebels (not protesters, it's way past that)
- Berkut left the main square
- rebels fired on the riot police and they returned fire, with a lopsided number of kills in favour of Berkut
- The Ukrainian Rada (Parliament) voted to pull back troops from the Maidan and the Rada is the only arm of government that can declare a state of emergency
- flurry of phone calls on all sides internationally and locally
- EU sanctions on key Ukrainian figures voted in unanimously
- rebels in the west have seized government buildings, police barracks and weapons stores
- regional councils in places like L'viv and Ivano-Frankivsk have announced that they are no longer taking orders from the central government

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Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Feb 2014

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/j528zR2WFlU

A governor of a western Ukrainian region who tried to calm down a raging mob of rioters was severely beaten and handcuffed to a protest stage. His family could also be under threat as insurgents are reportedly looking for them.

When a 30,000-strong mob attempted to storm regional police headquarters in the city of Lutsk in the Volyn region of western Ukraine, Governor Aleksandr Bashkalenko sided with law enforcement and tried to uphold the law.

Standing on the front staircase of the police building, Bashkalenko attempted to temper the rioters. But the insurgents began shouting “kneel down” , and then knocked him over and seized the civil servant, while beating him from all sides.

The rioters manhandled Bashkalenko to a stage used by the opposition during rallies. They doused him with water, exposing him to the cold as revenge for police using fire-hoses to repel the attackers in Kiev, and cuffed him to the stage.

Anti-government protesters capture Volyn Region Governor Alexander Bashkalenko (2nd L, front) during a rally in the town of Lutsk in northwestern Ukraine, February 19, 2014. (Reuters/Petro Krivoshey)

The rioters demanded Aleksandr Bashkalenko’s resignation, which he refused outright, saying that as a governor he has a real chance to prevent bloodshed in the region.

The governor was then reportedly taken to a cellar, where he was threatened to be kept under lock and key until he signs his resignation. According to other media reports his whereabouts is unknown.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Feb 2014

A surprisingly good piece from Der Spiegel:

Chess in a Minefield: The Global Implications of the Ukraine Conflict

The bloody conflict in Ukraine could trigger yet another confrontation between the West and Russia. Dominance in Europe is at stake on the geopolitical chess board. While Ukraine itself could descend into civil war.

The quote printed in SPIEGEL 33 years ago was a noteworthy one, and still sounds remarkably topical: "We have to ensure that this Soviet empire, when it breaks apart due to its internal contradictions, does so with a whimper rather than a bang." The sentence was spoken by US Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger during an interview conducted in September of 1981.

This week in Ukraine, one of the core regions of that former empire, it is looking very much like a "bang." Thursday in Kiev has seen bloody violence that has cost the lives of dozens amid gunfire and brutal clashes on Independence Square. Hundreds have been wounded, many seriously. The violence comes on the heels of similar battles on Tuesday -- and mark the beginning of what could become an extended and dramatic conflict over the country's future.

Some of those who have traveled to Kiev to view the situation first hand in recent weeks are fully aware of what a "bang" looks like -- US Senator John McCain, 77, for example, a veteran of Vietnam who was shot down in 1967 and spent over two years as a prisoner of war. In December, he stood on the Independence Square stage in Kiev and called out: "People of Ukraine, this is your moment! The free world is with you! America is with you!"

In other words, the Cold War has returned and Moscow is once again the adversary. The only difference is that the weapons have changed.

It is no longer just the association agreement with the European Union that is at stake. Nor is the future of President Viktor Yanukovych, a man surrounded by rumors of corruption, the focus anymore. Rather, geopolitics has taken center stage and the question as to which power centers in Europe and the Eurasia region will be dominant in the future has become paramount. Former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski once compared the region to a chess board. The players, as always, include the US, Russia, the EU and NATO.

Moscow in Checkmate
It's a chess game in a minefield. Just how explosive the country called Ukraine really is became clear from a background interview given by former Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar -- a liberal reformer and friendly to the West -- in 2008, one year before his death. Those wishing to make Ukraine a member of NATO, as was the intention of then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, overlook the fact that it would put Russia in an untenable defensive position, he said. The effort, he added, should be abandoned.

Brzezinski would love to have put Moscow in checkmate. In his book "The Grand Chessboard," he writes that without Ukraine, Russia "would become predominantly an Asian imperial state" at risk of being drawn into conflicts in Central Asia. But if Moscow were able to gain control of Ukraine and its resources, Brzezinski wrote, the Russian Federation would be a "powerful imperial state." He saw danger in a potential "German-Russian collusion" and in the possibility of an agreement between Europe and Russia with the goal of pushing America out of the region.

Essentially, Brzezinski's point of view is one that guides American strategy to this day: The US wants to keep Russia as far away as possible. If the Europeans get involved in Ukraine and harm their relations with Moscow, that is fine with Washington.

Indeed, US Deputy Foreign Minister Victoria Nuland's infamous "Fuck the EU" gaffe, can hardly be seen as a mistake. Rather it is a logical, if somewhat vulgar, expression of America's geopolitical stance.

Weakness in the US Strategy
There's a weakness to this strategy though: In contrast to the former Baltic Soviet republics with their small populations, it would be difficult to integrate Ukraine with its 45 million residents in the same way.

The country is also deeply divided. The economically weak regions in the west are bastions of nationalists. And Ukraine's major companies, like its steel mills, ship and turbine building operations are located in the east and are focused on the Russian market.

Russian is the predominant language in daily use in the capital city of Kiev, millions of Russians live in the eastern part of the country and on the Crimea as well. The Black Sea peninsula was first transferred to Ukraine in 1954, and against the will of the people living there.

Indeed, Crimea could soon become the next hot spot in the conflict. Russia's Black Sea fleet is stationed in Sevastopol, a source of irritation for Ukrainian nationalists and friends of the United States.
At an event in Kiev in October, US Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt described a "myriad of opportunities" if Ukraine aligned itself with the United States and said "you have no better friend in this endeavor than the United States. … We stand ready to support you, the Ukrainian people, as you find your place in Europe."

Dangerously Sweet Promises
Sweet promises like that, which seem tantamount to blank checks, have the potential to drive one of Europe's poorest countries into civil war. It's not just a government apparatus suspected of corruption that is on the verge of faltering in Ukraine -- the foundations of a country whose current borders are hardly sustainable at this point are also being shaken. The tactics adopted so far by Yanukovych's regime of alternating between brutal strikes and the temporary retreat will only further radicalize the protest movement.

When field commanders capable of anything lay down the law, the dynamic of secession begins, as we previously saw in the Caucuses. The presidium of the Crimean Supreme Council has already threatened that it may urge residents to "defend civil peace" on the peninsula.

Thus far, the Kremlin hasn't sought to encourage separatist sentiment in eastern and southern Ukraine. And it doesn't appear that Vladimir Putin and his system of power is interested in the prospect of a civil war in his backyard.

But it still has the potential to break out even if Moscow doesn't want it. Those familiar with Ukraine's history know that the militant nationalists in the west of the country have gone time and time again into battles they can't win. After World War II, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army waged a senseless partisan war for five years against the Soviet state, leaving thousands dead on both sides.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has called Ukraine a "powder keg" that one cannot allow to be lit. Whatever the case, romanticizing revolution can only end in a "big bang" -- the fallout from which would extend far beyond Ukraine.

Welund Thursday 20 Feb 2014

Absolutely. Bit of Star Wars too at the end there.

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Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Feb 2014

Yanukovich is either spineless or is engaging in brinkmanship of a sort to extract maximal gains by allowing the situation to escalate. I'm still not sure which is correct.

Behind the scenes, the Americans are doing their best to try and bypass the regime and contact members of the Ukrainian Army directly, to try and talk (bribe) them out of rolling out onto the streets. This seems to be the Americans' greatest fear judging by what I've been reading.

Even if the armed forces do come out of their bases, I can see a situation like in the ex-YU where bases in the west are placed under siege by rebel forces, and where some commanders are executed by pro-rebel conscripts/soldiers.

I strongly doubt that we will see a resumption of Kiev's rule in the western regions unless the western regions capture Kiev for themselves.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 20 Feb 2014

Here is the Financial Times' take on the Ukrainian Military:

Fears that the Ukrainian Military Could Be Called Into Action

As Ukraine slid deeper into violence on Thursday fears grew that the army could soon be called into the fray in a development that observers warned could have devastating repercussions for the nation.

People close to Ukraine’s opposition leaders expressed concern that president Viktor Yanukovich, his options dwindling, was preparing to unleash the army to crush the protests against him – possibly within hours.

They also accused Ukrainian authorities of provoking Thursday’s violence, with snipers firing at protesters on Kiev’s central square, as a pretext for a decisive clampdown. Mr Yanukovich’s website pointed the blame at protesters.

“If there is a decision to use force to clear the protesters, it can be done but will start a civil war,” said Ihor Smeshko, former head of Ukraine’s SBU security services. “The army is so far neutral, but if it is pulled into this conflict it will be a point of no return. Army personnel are themselves split 50/50 in their views of Ukraine.”

The government prepared the way for using the army on Wednesday, when the defence ministry said the military could be deployed in “antiterrorist” operations. Authorities and legal experts had previously said the army could only be used within Ukraine if a state of emergency was imposed.

Mr Yanukovich on Wednesday night also replaced the head of all Ukraine’s armed forces with the former navy chief – just weeks after he already replaced the head of the army – in what appeared to be a move to ensure loyalty in the top ranks.

In Washington, those moves generated particular alarm. “We urge the Ukrainian military not to get involved in a conflict that can and should be resolved by political means,” said Jay Carney, a White House spokesman.

A state department official noted efforts were under way to lobby Ukraine’s top brass. “In the past, we have been able to make direct contact with senior military and intelligence officials in the Ukrainian government,” the official said. “It is worrying to us that has been difficult over the last 24 hours.”

The fact the Ukrainian authorities were contemplating using the military emphasised Mr Yanukovich’s relative shortage of resources for crushing the protests. It also raised questions about how much of the army, despite the leadership changes, would obey orders to use force against their own people.

“[The Yanukovich government] have put their placemen into the army,” said James Sherr, a Ukraine scholar at London’s Chatham House think-tank. “But still the question is what proportion of units would obey such orders?”

The government would normally rely on so-called Berkut special police and, if necessary, interior ministry troops to deal with domestic disturbances. Valentyn Badrak, director of the Kiev-based Centre for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said the Berkut were well-trained and comparatively well-paid by Ukrainian standards, earning at least 6,000 hryvnia ($750) a month.
But experts said that despite efforts to reinforce them in recent weeks, the Berkut probably still numbered fewer than 5,000.

The interior ministry is said to have about 15,000 to 20,000 trained troops. But Chatham House’s Mr Sherr said Ukrainian officials had told him privately that as few as 700 were “fit for purpose” to deal directly with entrenched protesters.

The army could provide extra numbers, weapons and equipment. The government, however, has treated the army as much less of a priority in recent years than law enforcement, Mr Badrak said. Soldiers were also poorly paid, with even brigade commanders earning only about Hr3,500-4,000 per month – less than Berkut police.

“The core of the army does not support Yanukovich and will not execute an order” to use arms against ordinary people, Mr Badrak said. “This will be an illegal order and will mean for the army that it is being pulled into illegal action.”

Ukraine’s armed forces have had extensive contacts with Nato troops in recent years, as a member of Nato’s Partnership for Peace programme, with officers receiving Nato training.

“Don’t underestimate the strength of the army’s own professional ethos, part of which is that they don’t get engaged in this type of action” against ordinary citizens, said Mr Sherr. “Their training, the respect of the officers for the constitution, and 20 years of close working with Nato countries, that affects the whole mentality.”

The military refrained from a crackdown against Ukraine’s Orange Revolution in 2004, although the situation several times came close. Ukraine’s then president Leonid Kuchma ultimately refused to bow to pressure to use force from Russia’s president Vladimir Putin – deterred in part by public threats of resignations of top security officials.

One of those, Mr Smeshko, has warned that Mr Yanukovich, who is under similar pressure today from Mr Putin, may feel no such constraints.

But Mr Smeshko, a former military intelligence general, said he found it “hard to imagine how the army will execute orders to go against its own people”.

The Mila Kunis Question - Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Ritz-Carlton in Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk

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