The Syria Analysis Thread

Schmeisser Wednesday 3 May 2017

It's not even a coincidence because it isn't even true. I'm guessing that you didn't read your link and didn't expect me too. It's also possible that when you read, you comprehend only what you want to despite it never being said. A lot of schlocky conspiracy theorists are like this and ALL Assadist propaganda claims are rested on such bullshit.

mkondich Wednesday 3 May 2017

cut out hafez, presence in lebanon

replace them with bashar. muslim brotherhood is still there in north hama and idlib countryside pre 2011 and post 2011, later becoming wholly organized as ahrar

stoke tribal tensions of both alawi and sunni, make it a fight for dominance

there were many more than just a few attempts to influence the inner circle and make rivals within the upper echelons, everything from assassinations on family members to bribing military figures ( gen abu araj in daraa, regional joke riad al asad) and they mostly failed and further emboldened the survivalist attitude

"ALL Assadist propaganda claims" is such a joy to see

are you truly the child I think you are

Schmeisser Wednesday 3 May 2017

mkondich said: ↑

cut out hafez, presence in lebanon

replace them with bashar. muslim brotherhood is still there in north hama and idlib countryside pre 2011 and post 2011, later becoming wholly organized as ahrar

stoke tribal tensions of both alawi and sunni, make it a fight for dominance

there were many more than just a few attempts to influence the inner circle and make rivals within the upper echelons, everything from assassinations on family members to bribing military figures ( gen abu araj in daraa, regional joke riad al asad) and they mostly failed and further emboldened the survivalist attitude

"ALL Assadist propaganda claims" is such a joy to see

are you truly the child I think you are

"How come all of these things came to fruition? Is it just a 'coincidence'? Hmmmm?"

"They didn't."

"Ok, well I mean if you just change this this that and this and then you kind of figure this replaces this and substitute this for that, THEN how come all these things came to fruition?"

How about you learn to actually read, and then you start reading to actually learn facts instead of trying to piece together conspiracy theories that confirm your own delusional fantasies so that you can get smarmy on the internet? GET REAL

mkondich Wednesday 3 May 2017

fantasies that are real are called realities

are you really in denial that so much of this was influenced by outside actors with plenty to gain

how is this difficult to comprehend? "beyond comedy" is all I have to say at this point - some deity is laughing harder than I am

Schmeisser Wednesday 3 May 2017

Funny, because all I hear is the sound of *whiffing.* Nobody ever said outside actors aren't involved in Syria, but once again, you try to get smarmy about what you'd like to think you're reading.

mkondich Wednesday 3 May 2017

no substance in this quote, begone

you've previously claimed that claims of outside interference are just propaganda. now you're claiming that it certainly did happen? which is it

I've had more worthy debates in michael weiss's mentions, this is just pitiful

Schmeisser Wednesday 3 May 2017

Look, girl-brains: you just don't comprehend nuance or complexity or even facts that don't correspond with what you believe.

Literally nobody in the world would say that there are no outside actors involved in Syria. You'd have to be completely insane to think such a thing, and I've certainly never said as much. Now if you're an Assadist, you likely take a view that is almost as crazy, that there is no civil war in Syria at all and that all Syrian people stand behind Assad against an army of foreign Zionist mercenary cannibal terrorists. Even Bashar himself has said such things, and most Assadists more or less believe that narrative.

But just because I don't believe that nonsense doesn't mean I don't think there aren't outside actors heavily involved on each side in Syria. Is this starting to make sense to you? It's not a matter of "Which is it?! Hmmm?" As excited as you get about waxing smarmy.

auteur_theory Wednesday 3 May 2017

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 7 May 2017

Local Daimyo mkondich TradPost9000 Amadis

This is a very, very funny piece.

Syria's Kurds march on to Raqqa and the sea

Kurdish expansion plans putting the group on a collision course with neighbouring Turkey

Kurdish fighters in northern Syria fly the flag. Photograph: REUTERS

Syria’s Kurds have revealed plans to redraw the northern part of the country by linking the Kurdish region of Rojava with the Mediterranean Sea, in a move that will infuriate neighbouring Turkey .

In a further sign of growing Kurdish confidence in Syria’s north, officials say that they plan to ask the US for political support in creating a trade corridor to the Mediterranean as part of a deal for their role in liberating Raqqa and other cities from Islamic State (Isis).

Senior figures have also indicated that the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), a 50,000-strong collection of fighters dominated by the YPJ Kurdish militia and a crucial US partner in its offensive against Isis, is preparing to occupy Raqqa after eradicating Isis before pushing deeper into Arab territory, along the Euphrates valley, and seizing the city of Deir ez–Zor from the extremist group.

In another startling development, an official even revealed it was possible that SDF forces might eventually push west to liberate the city of Idlib, 170km west of Raqqa, and currently controlled by a coalition of Islamists and jihadis including the former al-Qaida affiliate Nusra Front. Hediya Yousef, in charge of the federalism project for the self-declared autonomous “democratic federation of north Syria”, which has expanded from the Kurdish region of Rojava to include considerable Arab territory, told the Observer : “Arriving at the Mediterranean Sea is in our project for northern Syria, it’s a legal right for us to reach the Mediterranean.”

When asked if that meant asking the US for its political backing to achieve a trading route to the sea once they had helped eradicate Isis from north Syria , Yousef said: “Of course.”

Speaking in the Syrian city of Malikiyah near to where recent Turkish airstrikes struck Kurdish targets, killing 20 fighters of the People’s Protection Units (YPJ), Yousef added: “If we arrive at the Mediterranean it will solve many of the problems of the population in northern Syria, everyone will benefit.”

Opening the region to international trading routes would significantly empower northern Syria, circumventing the existing blockade on Rojava caused by the closed border with Turkey and tensions with Iraq.

But the plans will outrage Turkey, which has already invaded Syria to prevent the Kurds extending their territory along the entire Turkish border.

Yet following the recent Turkish airstrikes, hundreds of US forces moved through Rojava to the Turkish border, a dramatic show of solidarity with the Kurds that has stoked tensions between Washington and Ankara. On Wednesday a senior aide to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, suggested American troops could be targeted alongside their Kurdish allies – a warning that has done nothing to dilute Washington’s view that the Kurds are an indispensable ally in the imminent battle to liberate the Isis stronghold of Raqqa.

The Mediterranean lies about 100km from the westernmost edge of Kurdish-held land and the plan would require an agreement with the Syrian regime, although the YPJ and Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, have come to deals on issues such as the airport at Qamishli, which remains under Syrian army control despite being deep inside Kurdish territory. Any deal would require the agreement of Russia, Assad’s staunch ally, which recently deployed ground forces to Kurdish-held terriory to work with the YPJ. Russia’s influence in Syria was again highlighted on Friday when President Vladimir Putin unveiled no-fly zones for Russian, Turkish, Iranian and US militaries in order to protect safe zones for civilians on the ground.

The SDF’s liberation of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor along the Euphrates would extend territory controlled by the autonomous federation of north Syria to almost a third of the country, compared with the 16% that was governed by the federation of Rojava.

Yousef said that the population of Raqqa would be given a referendum asking if it wanted the SDF, which contains Arab and Assyrian Christian militia, to form a government following the defeat of Isis.

“The people in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa want the SDF to come; in truth the SDF consists of people from these areas,” she said. Already it seems that the SDF is being prepared to stay in control of Raqqa. The Observer witnessed Kurdish and Arab police officers being trained in the town of Mabrouka, Syria, specifically to patrol Raqqa after its liberation. Sources also said that SDF fighters were already as close as 10km from Deir ez-Zor, the biggest Isis stronghold in Syria once Raqqa is liberated. Regarding Idlib, which lies 55km from the Mediterranean, Yousef said any offensive would “depend on events”. “If we clear all this area [north-east Syria] from terrorists, then maybe we will go to the other side to also clear that area. Idlib is occupied by Jabhat al-Nusra [Nusra Front], who are on the list of terrorists. ”

A spokesman for the US State Department said that Syria’s future should be made by the Syrians themselves, reiterating Washington’s position as not recognising “any unilaterally declared self-rule semi-autonomous zone”.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 7 May 2017

The Syria Analysis Thread

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