The Syria Analysis Thread

Sagdloq Tuesday 5 Jan 2016

Indeed.

Fitz Tuesday 5 Jan 2016

interview with retired russian colonel turned war correspondent -

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/hN_ZE2H2UkA

some quotes -

"'[According to] American data, they [did 8800 airstrikes], spent $5 billion, and claim to have killed 5000 terrorists. So each terrorist cost million dollars at least. According to our Russian Ministry of Defense, in four thousand airstrikes we killed several hundred terrorists - that proportion sounds more realistic. So you understand, 4000 airstrikes, let's say it’s even a thousand terrorists...

The cost of killing a terrorist is a incomparable to the cost of hiring one. A terrorist recruit costs a hundred dollars, plus hundred dollars to give him a rifle. And war is an economic contest - if we spend $1,000,000 to kill a terrorist whom the enemy hire for $200, we are losing the war.'"

"'No military operation can solve this [war in Syria]. Thank God we didn't start a ground operation there - it would have been much, much worse. It's not enough to increase the numbers of Syrian army by even 100,000 with our soldiers - they will inflict some tactical defeats, take losses, then more mercenaries will come from Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc., and this will drag on forever. '"

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 7 Jan 2016

US admits Bashar al-Assad will outlast Barack Obama

The US government privately accepts that Bashar Assad will still be in power when Barack Obama leaves the White House, according to a leaked internal document.

A timeline prepared for American officials and obtained by the Associated Press offers March 2017 as the earliest possible date for Mr Assad to give up his position as president and for his inner circle to leave. That would be more than five years after Mr Obama first called for the Syrian president to quit, and two months after the American president steps down.

The State Department said on Wednesday the timeline was prepared late last year as a guide for John Kerry, Secretary of State, and other American diplomats as they worked on a political transition for Syria.

John Kirby, a spokesman, described the document as a "staff-level think piece" that is "preliminary and pre-decisional" and not "an official position."

He also said it was "not an accurate projection of plans by the international community to effect a political transition in Syria".

However, the document reflects details of a plan negotiated in Vienna in November for a ceasefire followed by a new constitution and a transitional government. Elections for a president and new government would eventually come in August 2017.

Mr Assad's role remains uncertain. Russia says he should be allowed to compete in elections , something the US wants to rule out. The timeline offers no explanation for exactly how Mr Assad would leave or what his post-presidential future might hold.

In any case, efforts to implement the plan and end five years of war remain beset by difficulties.

In the past week, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which support opposite sides in the conflict, have cut diplomatic relations .

And Mr Assad refuses to relinquish power while a terrorist threat to his nation, in the form of rebel groups and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, persists.

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 9 Jan 2016

Some humour:

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Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 10 Jan 2016

ISIS is very close to getting cut off from its Turkish lifeline as the SAA and the Kurds/SDF push towards al-Bab and Manbij respectively.

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Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 10 Jan 2016

SAA moving in on Salma, the centre of resistance in Northern Latakia.

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Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 12 Jan 2016

SAA liberated Salma today with a two pronged attaq:

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/s35V9bFA26M

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 16 Jan 2016

Fitz Broseph

Syrian forces prepare for assault to seize Aleppo

ALEPPO, Syria: Pro-government fighters are preparing to launch a major assault to recapture Syria's second city Aleppo, a security source in the northern province told AFP.

"Through its operations, the army is trying to broaden its security zone around the city," and prevent the rebels from receiving supplies and reinforcements from the suburbs, the source said.

Once Syria's commercial hub, Aleppo city is now divided between government control in the west and rebel control in the east.

The broader province is split as well, with ISIS largely in the east, and rebel groups and Syria's Al-Qaeda affiliate,the Nusra Front, in the west.

But with backing from Russian airstrikes and foreign fighters, Syria's armed forces are slowly advancing south and southeast of the city.

"This will be the biggest military operation in Syria since the beginning of the war," one commander with pro-government forces told AFP.

He said loyalist forces were fighting on seven fronts around the city of Aleppo in a bid to cut off rebel supplies and isolate the city's east.

According to Syria analyst Fabrice Balanche, rebel fighters entrenched in the city have set up "serious defence lines" against attacks from the western neighborhoods.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 17 Jan 2016

The sweep through Northern Latakia province continues.

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Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 17 Jan 2016

Here's a better map. Note the red line which shows where the front line was when the Russians showed up. This is very mountainous rugged terrain so what they've achieved here thus far is remarkable in light of how well dug-in the rebels were in places like Salma. The beginning of the offensive was very, very slow, with initial advances being reversed. However the Russians learned the terrain, intelligence got better, and communications centres plus logistics were hit. Momentum slowly picked up and now it's turning into a rout in Latakia.

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The Syria Analysis Thread

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