The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts

Fitz

captured hezbollah - "syrian army no real role in battle"

President Camacho
Total desperation from ISIS. These Hezbollah guys must think pumping ISIS's propaganda will save them from execution.
Fitz

they're were captured by the army of conquest , not isis. It's possible they'll be released in a prisoner exchange with hezbollah.

Fitz
Syrian government territorial gains just 0.4% since Russian military intervention

Columb Strack - Senior Analyst, Middle East & North Africa at IHS
19 November 2015

[​IMG]

Syrian government forces have made modest territorial gains of 0.4% since the beginning of Russian airstrikes, with territory controlled by the government growing by about 120km2

The Syrian Army, backed by Russian airstrikes and various Shia militias under IRGC command, made net gains of around 240km2 against Sunni rebel factions, but suffered net losses of 120km2 to the Islamic State in the period from 29 September to 16 November 2015, according to the latest estimates by IHS Conflict Monitor.

Although the government has made notable gains south of Aleppo city, and managed to break the Islamic State siege on Rasin al-Aboud Airbase, it has suffered set-backs to Sunni rebels on the Hama front line, and the vital M5 highway link between Damascus and Homs has come under increased threat from Islamic State advances in recent weeks.

IHS analysis of cumulative government gains and losses showed a steep decline in territorial control between October 2014 and September 2015, which is likely to have influenced Russia’s decision to intervene militarily in the conflict.

This trend was reversed in October 2015, likely as the result of Russian air support providing renewed momentum for the Syrian Army. However, preliminary data for November indicates that government performance is flat-lining again.

On 17 November, Russian state television showed a map during a briefing at the Defence Ministry headquarters, which appeared to feature a reference to a Russian artillery battery deployed near the town of Sadad, around 50km south-east of Homs city.

Sadad is the last remaining government-held town between the Islamic State, which has made significant gains in Homs province in recent weeks, and the critical M5 highway.
Niccolo and Donkey
Putin's Realtalk on downing of Russian bomber :

Niccolo and Donkey
Niccolo and Donkey
[​IMG]
Niccolo and Donkey
[​IMG]
Niccolo and Donkey
[​IMG]
el greco

Some quotes from a recent interview Asad did with the Czech media http://sana.sy/en/?p=63209

On the French:

Definitely, if they wanted to learn from what had happened recently in Paris, why did not they learn from Charlie Hebdo? The same principle and the same concept. We said at that time that this is only the tip of the iceberg. What is under the water is much bigger. They did not learn. This is first. Second, you cannot fight terrorism while you are supporting the terrorists directly with armaments and having alliance with most zealous supporters of terrorism in the world; which is the Saudi Kingdom. You cannot. This is contradiction. You cannot be the police and the thief at the same time. You have to choose either way to stand.

On refugees:

The feeling is very sad, especially if you think that every person of those Syrians who left Syria has a sad story behind him. It reflects the hardship of Syria during the crisis. From let us say rational way of looking at this situation, it is a lost, everyone of those is a human resource that left Syria, so this will undermine the society in your country definitely, but in the end we have to deal with the reasons. The question that I think every European should ask is why did they leave? For many reasons: the first one is the terrorists that have been attacking them everywhere, either directly or through attacking the basic requirements of living in our country; infrastructure, their way of life, different basic needs and so on, the second one is the European embargo, the European embargo played into the hands of terrorists directly and what was supposed to be with the Syrians became against the Syrians because every embargo is against the population of any country. Many people left Syria because they cannot live here anymore, because they do not have the basic needs of living, so they had to leave to Europe or to Turkey or any other country.

On Erdogan's shooting down of a Russian plane:

do not think so, but I think it has shown the relentlessness of Erdogan who let us say lost his nerves just because the Russian intervention has changed the balance on the ground. So, the failure of Erdogan in Syria, the failure of his terrorist groups means his political demise, so he wanted to do anything in order to put obstacles in front of any success. So, he did it, but I do not think it will change any balance. The war against terrorism is continuing. The Russian supportive participation is going to be stronger, it is strong anyway, and I think there is no way back on that regard, whether he does it again, this way or another way.

On his presidency:

I didn’t fail them [the Syrian people], I did not destroy their infrastructure, I did not give the arms to terrorists to kill and to destroy. The question is: who did that? The Europeans and the Saudis and the Qataris.


On secularism in Syria:

Secularism, because Syria is a melting pot. Of course secularism in Syria is different from the way some in the West, especially in France maybe, understand it to be against religion. Actually, secularism in Syria is to have freedom of religions, sects and ethnicities. Without this, you will not have the Syria that has been known for centuries. So, this is the most important thing that we can try to protect. The second thing is moderation, because of this variety of different factors in this society for centuries, you have moderation. Without moderation you cannot have this melting pot, what the terrorists are working on now is to create a new generation that knows nothing about moderation. They are going to be only killers, extremists, fanatics who do not accept the others, in a few years time this is going to be real danger, how can we deal with the new generation? It is not someone who is twenty or above, it is maybe twenty and below. This is the real challenge that we are going to face.