The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 27 Sep 2013

A shot from a propaganda movie made by foreign jihadists near the northern Syrian town of Atmeh, a transit station for jihadists who usually arrive at the nearby Turkish airport in Hatay. As thousands of foreign jihadists enter the country, there are growing tensions between more secular and more extreme rebel elements.

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Some remain in the region, while others continue on to Aleppo, to the mountains of Latakia, to Rakka in the east, or to wherever the unclear front happens to be. Here, another frame from the same propaganda video.

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Some Syrian rebels team up with the jihadists, but many find the foreigners sinister. And even when the latter do fight against regime troops, Free Syrian Army (FSA) commanders are puzzled as to why commanders like Abu Omar al-Shishani, from Chechnya, aren't using the ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles they have obtained. Indeed, the FSA commanders fear the jihadists could use their weapons against Syrian rebels or even in terrorist attacks elsewhere in the world.

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Many rebels and citizens would like to see the more extreme Islamists leave the country -- especially the more brutal ones. The most radical emir in the north has been Abu al-Banat, a former Russian officer from the Caucasus republic of Dagestan who converted to Islam and has gathered disciple-like supporters since then (seen here). However, his public beheading of three men in April prompted supporters to abandon him and rival rebel groups to capture him.

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 27 Sep 2013

Pepe calls 'bullshit' on those like Der Spiegel who downplay the size and influence of the Jihadis.

How the US is enabling Syriastan

If any extra evidence was needed to shatter the myth of a "revolution" struggling for a future "democratic" Syria, the big news of the week cleared any remaining doubts.

Eleven, 13 or 14 "rebel" brigades (depending on the source) have ditched the "moderate", US-propped Syrian National Council (SNC) and the not-exactly Free Syrian Army (FSA). The leaders of the bunch are the demented jihadis of Jabhat al-Nusra - but it includes other nasties such as the Tawhid brigades and the Tajammu Fastaqim Kama Ummirat in Aleppo, some of them until recently part of the collapsing FSA.

The jihadis practically ordered the myriad "moderates" to submit, "unify in a clear Islamic frame", and pledge allegiance to a future Syria with Sharia law as "the sole source of legislation".

One Ayman al-Zawahiri must be having a ball in his comfortable, drone-proof hideout somewhere in the Waziristans. Not only because his call for a multinational jihad - a la Afghanistan in the 1980s - is working; but also because the US-run SNC has been exposed for the toothless rodent that it really is.

And facts on the ground keep corroborating it. The al-Qaeda-propped Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant took over a town near the Bab al-Salam border crossing with Turkey that was held by the FSA because the FSA was accused of fighting for "democracy" and close ties with the West. Wrong; the FSA wants those ties but under a Muslim Brotherhood-controlled regime. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - of which Jabhat al-Nusra is the main Syrian component - wants a Talibanized Syriastan.

The hardcore jihadi gangs in Syria may number as much as 10,000 fighters; but they do account for arguably 90% of the heavy fighting, because they are the only ones with battleground experience (including Iraqis who fought the Americans and Chechens who fought the Russians).

In parallel, and not by accident, ever since Prince Bandar bin Sultan, aka Bandar Bush, was put in charge by Saudi King Abdullah to run the Syria jihad, taking no prisoners, the "moderate" Qatar-aligned Muslim Brotherhood SNC has been progressively sidelined.

Off with those peaceniks' heads
Yet as far as train wrecks go, nothing equals the Obama administration's excuse for a "strategy", which theoretically boils down to weaponizing and extensively training the weakest link - selected FSA gangs infiltrated with CIA assets - and "vetting" weapons falling into the hands of jihadis. As if the CIA had reliable local intel on the myriad jihadi Gulf-based funding and logistical sources.

The SNC, the FSA and the exile so-called "Supreme Military Command" led by the grandiloquent General Salim Idriss are now no more than a joke. This whole thing happened while SNC leader al-Jerba was at the UN General Assembly in New York - where he met with Secretary of State John "Assad is like Hitler" Kerry. Kerry did not talk about weapons but about more "aid" and future negotiations at the perennially postponed Geneva II conference. Al-Jerba was furious. And to top if off, some is his FSA gangs openly embraced al-Qaeda.

Why? Follow the money. This is how it works, in a nutshell. At least half of the FSA "brigades" are mercenaries - they are financed from abroad. They fight where their masters - who weaponize and pay them - tell them to fight. The "Supreme Command" controls, at best, something like 20% of the brigades. And these people don't even live in Syria; they are based on the Turkish or Jordanian side of the border.

The mercenary jihadis, on the other hand, are on the ground full-time. They are the real fighting force, receive their salaries on time, and their families are well taken care of.

So for all practical purposes it's now a war between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and a bunch of jihadis. Of course this will NOT be explained by supine corporate media to Western public opinion.

And for Angocachi and SweetLeftFoot :

CLAMOR Saturday 28 Sep 2013

McCain hires Syria rebel advocate Elizabeth O’Bagy

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Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain hired the Syria analyst in favor of U.S. intervention who was fired for fabricating her Ph.D., Foreign Policy reported .

McCain even refered to the analyst as “Dr. Elizabeth O’Bagy.” O’Bagy argued moderate Syrian rebels will be able to keep U.S. arms out of the hands of Islamist fighters.

Once O’Bagy became a leading voice for U.S. intervention, it was revealed that she never received a PhD from Georgetown University. It was later reported that not only was O’Bagy not awarded a final degree, she never even enrolled in the Georgetown program she had claimed.

The Daily Caller revealed that O’Bagy was also affiliated with the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a pending nonproft without IRS approval that works to provide aid to Syrian rebels. She maintains that she took no part in the Task Force’s lobbying of the U.S. government.The question O’Bagy originally addressed, whether moderate McCain-approved rebels would be able to keep U.S. weapons out of the hands of al Qaida-affiliated groups, remains a hot topic. The CIA funded and organized a sale of weapons to Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Coalition, more moderate rebel groups.

Team Zissou Saturday 28 Sep 2013

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 1 Oct 2013

Another Bosnian Muslim gets himself killed.

Another Bosnian dies in Syrian war

SARAJEVO -- Bosnian citizen Emedin Velić has been killed in Syria while fighting on the side of the rebels against the country's government forces.

He is the third Bosnian confirmed to have died in the Syrian civil war.
Confirming for the Sarajevo-based Daily Avaz that his 20-year-old brother was killed in the fighting, Eldin Velić said he had "received his father's permission" to join the war in the Middle Eastern country..

"He went to fight for the oppressed people of Syria," said Eldin Velić, adding that while it was true that those who go to the Syrian front receive pay - "because they have to live on something" - the figure was "not even close to the fabulous amounts that some speak about."

Before Velić, Bosnian citizens Derviš Halilović and Muazer Šabić were also killed in the fighting in Syria, the Croatian news agency Hina reported.

For this reason, Minister of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina Fahrudin Radončić moved to amend the existing criminal law that would in teh future sanction Bosnian citizens who join paramilitary groups abroad.

After he signed and sent to parliamentary procedure this new legal solution, the minister explained that the amendments to the law will also hold "the organizers" responsible.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 3 Oct 2013

CLAMOR Thursday 3 Oct 2013

I haven't been able to find information on the ethnic/religious composition of the Syrian refugee exodus in any of the articles I've looked up on the subject. Such information might not exist, but perhaps it does? Are refugees primarily devout Sunni/anti-state elements, or are refugees from both 'sides' of the conflict represented? Are there difference in which refugees go to Lebanon vs. Turkey vs. Jordan?

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 6 Oct 2013

Longface Angocachi SweetLeftFoot

Turkey will pay for harboring ‘terrorists’ – Assad

Syrian President Bashar Assad said that Turkey will pay a “heavy price” for harboring and backing “terrorists” in order to oust him, warning that soon enough the terrorists will turn on Turkey.

Assad referred to Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan as "bigoted" and accused Turkey of aiding terrorists by allowing them to cross into Syria, Reuters reported, citing an interview with Turkey’s Halk TV.

"It is not possible to put terrorism in your pocket and use it as a card because it is like a scorpion which won't hesitate to sting you at the first opportunity," Assad said. "In the near future, these terrorists will have an impact on Turkey and Turkey will pay a heavy price for it."

Turkey is home to about two million refugees who have fled Syria since the country’s unrest began in March 2011. Turkey is also one of the biggest supporters of Syrian opposition forces. The country plays a key geopolitical role in the conflict, as it shares a 900-kilometer border with Syria.

Assad claimed that Erdogan has a sectarian agenda, since his AK Party has origins in conservative Islamist politics. "Before the crisis, Erdogan had never mentioned reforms or democracy, he was never interested in these issues ... Erdogan only wanted the Muslim Brotherhood to return to Syria, that was his main and core aim," Assad said.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 7 Oct 2013

Der Spiegel Interview with Bashar Assad: 'In the End, a Lie Is a Lie'

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Assad granted a 90-minute interview last week to SPIEGEL reporters Klaus Brinkbäumer (left) and Dieter Bednarz (right). They traveled to Damascus by car from Beirut. Here, they are pictured during the interview inside Assad's private office.

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 12 Oct 2013

Syrian rebels accused of killing hundreds of civilians

Syrian rebels killed at least 190 civilians and took more than 200 hostage during an offensive in Latakia province in August, Human Rights Watch said on Friday, in what it calls the first evidence of crimes against humanity by opposition forces.

HRW said many of the dead had been executed by militant groups, some linked to al-Qaida, who overran army positions at dawn on 4 August and then moved into 10 villages nearby where members of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect lived.

In its first government-sanctioned trip into Syria during the two-and-a-half year conflict, New York-based HRW has documented a series of sectarian mass killings by Assad's foes during a broader campaign in which Western-backed rebels took part.

In some cases, entire families were executed or gunned down as they fled, according to the HRW report You Can Still See Their Blood .

HRW identified five rebel groups instrumental to funding, organising, planning and carrying out the Latakia attacks, including the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant groups, as well as the Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham and another unit of foreign jihadi fighters.

These groups publicised their involvement through videos and statements, some of which were used to corroborate the HRW report. The operation appeared to have been largely financed by private Gulf-based donors, HRW said.

What is less clear is the role of fighters from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the armed wing of the main opposition coalition which is openly supported by the United States, Britain, France and Sunni Muslim Gulf states.

In a video posted on 11 August and apparently filmed in Latakia, FSA chief Salim Idriss said the organisation was taking part in the offensive "to a great extent".

But HRW researcher Lama Fakih, who spent several days in Latakia province in September and spoke to residents, soldiers, militiamen, doctors and officials, said she could not confirm whehter the FSA were present on the day the atrocities took place.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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