The Syria Analysis Thread

Longface Wednesday 28 Aug 2013

Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria

The revelations come amid high tension in the Middle East, with US, British, and French warship poised for missile strikes in Syria. Iran has threatened to retaliate.
The strategic jitters pushed Brent crude prices to a five-month high of $112 a barrel. “We are only one incident away from a serious oil spike. The market is a lot tighter than people think,” said Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review.
Leaked transcripts of a closed-door meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan shed an extraordinary light on the hard-nosed Realpolitik of the two sides.
Prince Bandar, head of Saudi intelligence, allegedly confronted the Kremlin with a mix of inducements and threats in a bid to break the deadlock over Syria. “Let us examine how to put together a unified Russian-Saudi strategy on the subject of oil. The aim is to agree on the price of oil and production quantities that keep the price stable in global oil markets,” he said at the four-hour meeting with Mr Putin. They met at Mr Putin’s dacha outside Moscow three weeks ago.
“We understand Russia’s great interest in the oil and gas in the Mediterranean from Israel to Cyprus. And we understand the importance of the Russian gas pipeline to Europe. We are not interested in competing with that. We can cooperate in this area,” he said, purporting to speak with the full backing of the US.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 28 Aug 2013

Longface

Putin said 'nyet' and Bandar threatened the Sochi Olympics with the Chechens under Saudi-CIA sponsorship.

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 28 Aug 2013

Hans Blix: Even if Assad used chemical weapons, the west has no mandate to act as a global policeman - By ordering air strikes against Syria without UN security council support, Obama will be doing the same as Bush in 2003

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 28 Aug 2013

Time for some maps:

[IMG]

[IMG]

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 28 Aug 2013

perkunos Thursday 29 Aug 2013

Fun fact: Syria has the P-800 Oniks anti-ship missile. 80mile range sea-skimming at mach 2.5. It's long been asserted that this missile is a serious threat to American warships in an engagement with China, though the US Navy insists their RIM-116 system can defeat it. It's certainly a lot more potent than the Exocet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-800_Oniks

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 29 Aug 2013

The UK Parliament has thrown a spanner in the works, but they'll have a second vote later this weekend.

Obama Strike Plans in Disarray After Britain Rejects Attack Plans

Barack Obama 's plans for air strikes against Syria were thrown into disarray on Thursday night after the British parliament unexpectedly rejected a motion designed to pave the way to authorising the UK's participation in military action.

The White House was forced to consider the unpalatable option of taking unilateral action against the regime of Bashar al-Assad after the British prime minister, David Cameron, said UK would not now take part in any military action in response to a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus last week.

Although Britain's support was not a prerequisite for US action, the Obama administration was left exposed without the backing of its most loyal ally, which has taken part in every major US military offensive in recent years.

A spokeswoman for Obama's national security council said the US would consider its options in the light of the vote. "The US will continue to consult with the UK government – one of our closest allies and friends. As we've said, President Obama's decision-making will be guided by what is in the best interests of the United States .

"He believes that there are core interests at stake for the United States and that countries who violate international norms regarding chemical weapons need to be held accountable."

The US appears to have taken British support for granted. Hours before the vote, the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, Diane Feinstein, expressed confidence that Britain would join any strike.

Feinstein, a Democrat and staunch administration ally, told Time magazine : "I think the UK makes a difference. I think if the President were to decide to go there's a very high likelihood that the United Kingdom would be with us."

The timing of the British vote, 272 to 285 against the government, was disastrous for Obama. Less than 30 minutes after the vote, senior intelligence officials began a conference call with key members of Congress, in an attempt to keep US lawmakers on side.

Shortly before Britain's parliamentary vote, the New York Times quoted the senior administration officials saying the US administration was prepared to launch strikes on Syria without a UN security council mandate or the support of allies such as Britain.

Earlier on Thursday, Joshua Earnest, the White House deputy spokesman, seemed to confirm that was a possibility when he was asked whether the US would "go it alone".

He repeatedly said it was in US "core national security interests" to enforce international chemical weapons norms. "The president of the United States is elected with the duty to protect the national security interests of America," he said. "The decisions he makes about our foreign policy is with our national security interests front and centre."

However, Earnest also stressed the broad international support for the US position – backing which now appears to be dissipating. The Arab League has blamed Syria for the chemical attack, but stopped short of advocating punitive strikes by the US.

In recent days, Obama has spoken personally with leaders of France, Australia, Canada and Germany.

But none were as important as Britain, a traditional ally during US military actions which has been lobbying behind the scenes for months for a tougher action on Syria.

Ken Pollack, a fellow from the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy, said that with continuing uncertainty over the intelligence picture, and no obvious legal mandate for military action, the US will be desperate to secure more international backing to argue that intervention is "legitimate".

"If the administration can't even count of the full-throated support of our closest ally, the country that stuck by us even during the worst days of Iraq, that legitimacy is going to be called into question," he said.

Bob Dylan Roof Thursday 29 Aug 2013

This is the house of commons [IMG]

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 29 Aug 2013

History tells us that a strike is imminent when this happens................

UN orders its inspectors out of Syria in anticipation of strikes

UN weapons inspectors have been ordered to leave Syria early amid mounting anticipation of US-led military strikes.

As the five permanent members of the security council held a second emergency meeting on Syria in two days on Thursday evening, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, instructed the 20-strong inspection team in Damascus to leave on Saturday, a day ahead of schedule. Ban also announced that the team would report to him immediately on departure, raising the possibility that the UN could issue an interim report on the 21 August chemical attacks that left hundreds of people dead.

The inspectors had not been due to deliver their findings for a week at least, with the analysis of samples a painstaking task. The demand for a rushed early assessment reflects the fraught atmosphere at the UN triggered by US threats to launch punitive air strikes within days.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 29 Aug 2013

SweetLeftFoot SteamshipTime

[IMG]

The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts