The Syria Analysis Thread

Stubby Wednesday 22 May 2013

From what I've seen, the SAA and Hezballah have taken most of the city, but there is still significant fighting, and now the FSA is trying to gather forces from other areas.

Niccolo and Donkey Thursday 23 May 2013

Niccolo and Donkey Saturday 25 May 2013

President Camacho Roland Stubby Angocachi

Hezbollah's role in Syrian conflict ushers new reality for its supporters

[IMG]

The newly arrived dead have ushered in a new reality for Hezbollah, one that has taken more than two years of uprising and war in neighbouring Syria to publicly acknowledge: all the fallen have died fighting Arabs in Syria, not Jews in Israel. Such a shift in orientation, for so long denied by the group's leadership, is now being worn as a badge of honour by the families of the dead.

Many of the next of kin interviewed by the Guardian said that their sons and brothers had been defending Lebanon from foreign plotters – in this case Salafists from the east rather than Zionists from the south. "The threat to us comes from all directions," said one grieving relative in the Beirut suburb of Chiyah on Friday. "But behind it all is the hidden hand of Israel."

The relative had come to the martyrs' cemetery to bury Taalab Fadl, who had been killed fighting rebels in the Syrian town of Qusair.

In a series of speeches over the past two years, Nasrallah, who is rarely seen in public, has voiced unwavering support for Bashar al-Assad, whose regime has been essential to the group's power. But he has dismissed constant opposition claims that he was more than just a moral backer. In the past eight months, however, Hezbollah's leader has shifted tone, suggesting first that members were "not yet" involved in Syria, then highlighting the threat posed to Shia shrines there, particularly the Sayyida Zeinab mosque in Damascus, as a reason to consider stepping in.

This year, Hezbollah's television station, al-Manar, started playing a short video showing fighters near the Zeinab mosque – a tacit acknowledgement of the group's direct military support. Facebook posts about slain members appeared soon after. Then came tributes on Hezbollah channels and websites, all without details.

Its hand perhaps forced by the sheer volume of dead and wounded coming back from Qusair, the group has only this past week felt comfortable enough to drop the veil on its role in Syria. But even now, the graveyard clamour and pageantry of martyrdom has not led Hezbollah's leaders to address their direct involvement – a move that has profound implications both in Lebanon and across the region.

So far, justification is being left to the group's support base, much of which seems to be onside with the decision, citing a need to strike pre-emptively against rebel groups that they believe will come to fight them next.

"I am with Hezbollah in this decision, because it is better that we fight them there than here," said a Dahiyah resident, Mohammed Abdullah.

"People don't think critically. If Hezbollah want to do this, then that's OK. They believe that Hezbollah know what they are doing."

Another Dahiyah local echoed a sentiment widely heard among Hezbollah supporters – that Syria's opposition is al-Qaida-led and heading for Lebanon. "They are terrorists who pretend they are Muslims," said Zulfiqa Hamsa, 23. They want to take the weapons from Hezbollah and indirectly support the Zionists and the Jews.

"They have been afraid until now to say that Hezbollah have been involved in fighting in other countries because of international opinion."

Stubby Saturday 25 May 2013

I do think this will be the end of Hezbollah as we know it. Their independent character (anti-Imperial, "elite", not so sectarian) cannot survive their absorption into an embattled Shia/Alawi enclave. We'll probably see in the coming weeks the real toll that the war in 2006 had on Hezbollah, as their edge tempered by the Israeli army should mean something against the Sunni rebels, that is unless they did actually lose most of their experienced fighters.

Angocachi Saturday 25 May 2013

It's incredible that Al Qaeda and Hezbollah units are actually fighting each other. This will not be forgotten. The Sunni are going to turn the Levantine Shia and Allawites into a second Israel. We will see them hugging the coast.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 26 May 2013

Another one goes down. Some 300 are in Syria from the Balkans, mainly from Bosnia, West Macedonia, and Serbia's Sandzak region. Not sure if there are any from Kosovo or Albania but there probably are. One guy, Vildan Kljuco, is from my hometown and has been there since August last year.

Another Bosnian Salafi dies in Syria conflict

SARAJEVO -- Another Bosnian citizen, a member of the Muslim Salafi movement, has been killed in the fighting in Syria, according to media reports.

The man's identity has not been revealed.
52 Bosnian Salafis have left their country to take part in the civil war in the Middle Easte.

Most of them joined the Al-Nusra unit, which the U.S. administration has designated as a terrorist organization "with links to Al-Qaeda."

The public broadcaster of Bosnia's Muslim-Croat entity, the Federal Television, is reporting that volunteers from Bosnia first gather in the Turkish town of Antakya, and are then taken to the Syrian border.

They enter Syria illegally at the Bab el-Hawa crossing, and then gather again in Sarmada, where they undergo "religious training" for the members of the Free Syrian Army - an armed organization fighting against Syria's government forces.

According Srna - the news agency of the Serb entity in Bosnia - Muaz Šabić, a Salafi from the town of Zenica, has been killed in Syria. He and some others left to join the war "with the financial assistance of the Gornja Maoča Salafi community leader, Nusret Imamović." The report further asserts that Imamović gave the volunteers 3,000 convertible Bosnian marks each.

The agency quotes security sources to say that Mostar resident Dževad Gološ acted as middleman in sending the Salafis to Syria. As a student, Gološ was "for a while engaged by the Islamic Community of Bosnia-Herzegovina."

Mike Monday 27 May 2013

According to an unnamed "senior Russian official", Moscow has put on hold the deal to send S-300 air-defence missiles to Syria. In return, the official added, Russia “expected Israel to refrain from further air attacks on Syria”.

Russia plays S-300 card to check Israel attacks on Syria

MOSCOW, May 27, 2013 - Vladimir Radyuhin

Moscow expects Tel Aviv to refrain from attacks on Syria

In a new twist to the diplomatic game over the supply of deadly S-300 air-defence missiles to Syria, Moscow is reported to have again put the deal on hold.

An unnamed senior Russian official has been quoted by the British Sunday Times as saying the Kremlin has decided against supplying S-300 long-range missiles to Syria “for fear they could fall into the wrong hands and be used to attack civilian aircraft at Tel Aviv’s main airport”.

In return, the official added, Russia “expected Israel to refrain from further air attacks on Syria”.

The Sunday Times said cancellation of the S-300 deal had been “apparently” agreed upon at a “tense” meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin at the Black Sea resort of Sochi earlier this month.

If the story is true, the Russian threat to supply S-300 missiles to Syria has achieved its purpose. Moscow has repeatedly said it would not allow a replay of the Libyan scenario in Syria, when the West took advantage of Russia’s fence-sitting stand to intervene, first by imposing a no-fly zone and later bombing the government forces.

Reports that Russia had revived the 2010 deal to supply the advanced air defence systems to Syria came after Israel carried out two air attacks on Syria on May 5. The raids were said to have targeted missile shipments to Hizbollah, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told Argentine newspaper Clarin that Israeli jets had “attacked a radar station that is part of our anti-aircraft defences”.

The next day, a furious Mr. Putin called the Israeli leader, who was touring Shanghai at the time, and summoned him to Sochi. (Israel claimed it was Mr. Netanyahu who had asked for a meeting.) According to Mr. Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, the S-300 supplies were discussed “in great detail” at the meeting.

Options

Mr. Putin probably laid out for Mr. Netanyahu other Russian options for advanced weapon supplies to Syria. A week ago, The New York Times reported that Russia had sent an additional batch of Yakhont supersonic missiles to Syria for the Bastion anti-ship systems supplied two years ago.

It is the second time in two years that Russia has played the S-300 trump card. Last year, Moscow suspended the deal to smooth the way for an international conference in Geneva, which approved a roadmap for peace in Syria.

This time the halt in S-300 supplies will be seen, not only as part of a deal with Israel not to attack Syria, but also as a goodwill gesture ahead of a Geneva-II peace conference that Russia and the United States have agreed to co-sponsor next month.

Experts said the delivery of S-300 to Syria would not be a very practical proposition anyway.

“It would take at least six months to ship and install the S-300s and at least as long again to train Syrians to operate the sophisticated system,” said weapons analyst Puslan Pukhov of the CAST think-tank. “Frankly, the Syrian government has more pressing defence needs than spending $900 million on S-300 batteries.”

The Russian expert noted that the limited number of S-300 launchers contracted by Syria could still be taken out in a massive air raid, while smaller scale attacks can be repulsed by other air defence systems Russia has already supplied to Syria. Revealingly, U.S. officials said that during the latest raid the Israeli jets had most likely bombed targets in Syria without entering its air space.

Notwithstanding the Kremlin’s reported promise not to supply S-300 to Syria, there have been enough leaks in Moscow recently to keep the intrigue alive. Some Russian officials suggested the S-300 contract had been partially fulfilled, while others said the shipments had been fully completed.

“The shipments have been carried out over the past two years under tightest secrecy,” the Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote on May 16 quoting Russian military-diplomatic sources. “All four S-300 batteries sold under a 2010 contract are already on Syrian territory.”

Clearly, Moscow hopes to play the S-300 card yet again.

Mike Monday 27 May 2013

Given what we saw in the Iraq civil war, I wouldn't be surprised if what you're saying is true. But here's what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had to say about it (sorry can't find transcript):

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/WNZolXjZX24

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 27 May 2013

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/VHEhcOmQogc

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 28 May 2013

Angocachi Roland SteamshipTime President Camacho Stubby

It looks like McCain has emboldened Israel:

Israel threatens to strike Russia’s shipments of missiles to Syria

In Moscow, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, wouldn't say whether Russia has shipped any of the S-300s, which have a range of up to 200 kilometres and the capability to track and strike multiple targets simultaneously. But he insisted that Moscow isn't going to abandon the deal despite strong Western and Israeli criticism.

"We understand the concerns and signals sent to us from different capitals. We realize that many of our partners are concerned about the issue," Ryabkov said. "We have no reason to revise our stance."

He said the missiles could be a deterrent against foreign intervention in Syria and would not be used against Syrian rebels, who do not have an air force.

"We believe that such steps to a large extent help restrain some 'hotheads' considering a scenario to give an international dimension to this conflict," he said.

The Syria Analysis Thread

10 posts