The Syria Analysis Thread

Thomas777 Monday 25 Mar 2013

Salafi elements are strongly anti-Turk in some quarters, for complicated reasons relating to historical grievances and the Turkish caliphates - some moderates for their part are upset by policy being directed by Ankara as well; they don't want the liberated Gulf states to become Turk client states for theological reasons but also because its an affront to Arab peoples.

On the other hand, there's realists who are anti-American and solidly anti-Jew who welcome Ankara's ''Neo-Ottoman'' orientation - the Turks are playing their cards splendidly here. At present, America needs Turkey more than Turkey needs America as per global security.

Team Zissou Monday 25 Mar 2013

Lew's site has caught on to the fact that more Syrians think Assad is better for the place than not.

nic - teach me how to do hyperlinks on Salo.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 25 Mar 2013

Same as LibertyForum. Click here to see the list.

Thomas777 Monday 25 Mar 2013

Depends on what Syrians you ask.

Yeah, the Assad family are handsome white people with a reputation for Oriental honor and sanguinary passion - this appeals to right-wing people. Couple that with the fact that the Alawites are believed by some to be occulted Christians and it becomes a cause of sorts to hope Assad can hang onto the throne.

On the other hand, the Alawites are basically a mafia, the Syrian B'ath was in essence a National Communist party, and if you are a pious Sunni who is also a military age male, there's a good chance you'll die by B'ath gunfire.

The Syrian B'ath doesn't have a real great claim to the mantle of leadership - and the real hard-charging Shia elements (Hezbollah and Iran) don't think they're great patriots - they realize the Alawites are allies of necessity.

What's the B'ath party done for anybody in 40-odd years? Its spilled a lot of Moslem blood, made peace with international Jewry and Israel, its enriched the Alwaites (and the Assad clan specifically), its tried in vain to preserve a moribund state-centric socialism that has now given way really to a govt that is little more than a security state that exists largely to perpetuate itself.

Seems like a shit deal for most Moslems who have to live in Syria.

Team Zissou Monday 25 Mar 2013

Thomas777 said: ↑

Depends on what Syrians you ask.

Yeah, the Assad family are handsome white people with a reputation for Oriental honor and sanguinary passion - this appeals to right-wing people. Couple that with the fact that the Alawites are believed by some to be occulted Christians and it becomes a cause of sorts to hope Assad can hang onto the throne.

On the other hand, the Alawites are basically a mafia, the Syrian B'ath was in essence a National Communist party, and if you are a pious Sunni who is also a military age male, there's a good chance you'll die by B'ath gunfire.

The Syrian B'ath doesn't have a real great claim to the mantle of leadership - and the real hard-charging Shia elements (Hezbollah and Iran) don't think they're great patriots - they realize the Alawites are allies of necessity.

What's the B'ath party done for anybody in 40-odd years? Its spilled a lot of Moslem blood, made peace with international Jewry and Israel, its enriched the Alwaites (and the Assad clan specifically), its tried in vain to preserve a moribund state-centric socialism that has now given way really to a govt that is little more than a security state that exists largely to perpetuate itself.

Seems like a shit deal for most Moslems who have to live in Syria.

Interestingly, I've stopped a couple of conversations cold by saying what the Arab Spring demonstrates is the utter failure of Ba'athism.

I've encountered at least one Muslim (I doubt he's a seriously-devout one) who says Syria needs an Assad more than the alternative.

Stubby Tuesday 26 Mar 2013

In Syria, the Rebels Have Begun to Fight Among Themselves

http://world.time.com/2013/03/26/in-syria-the-rebels-have-begun-to-fight-among-themselves/

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 12 Apr 2013

Angocachi SteamshipTime Stubby Roland President Camacho

Time for an update:

The Islamic Emirate of Syriastan

And still, next week, they will meet again - the main producers of this ghastly Z-movie, Regime Change Special Ops , plus some marginal players. It will be the US, the Brits and the French, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They will agree to keep the weaponizing going - and actually turbo-charge it.

So what is the CIA doing in all this mess? Well, hoping it gets messier, by supporting Baghdad-approved Shi'ite Iraqi militias to go after the jihadi superstars of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki even asked for CIA drones to bomb them to paradise. No luck - for now.

Baghdad has seen the writing on the wall - a direct consequence of the divide and rule, Sunni-against-Shi'ite games the Americans have been encouraging for 10 years now; the next stage is set for a civil war, Syria-style, in Iraq. Iraqi intelligence is seriously infiltrated by Islamic State of Iraq jihadis. There are no desert borders to speak of; Anbar province is watching what's unfolding in Syria as a dress rehearsal for what will happen in Iraq.

It's as if the brand new Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant cannot wait for Iraq to be back to that sinister, gruesome period between 2004 and 2008, when the body count could make Bruce Willis cringe. So what's a Pentagon in retreat to do? Shock and awe them all over again? Oh, no; this option is not for Iraq or the Islamic Emirate of Syriastan; it's only on the table for Iran.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 15 Apr 2013

Angocachi President Camacho SteamshipTime Stubby Roland

Syrian minister says UK and France are 'directly or indirectly' backing al-Qaida

Syria's deputy foreign minister, Faisal al-Miqdad. Photograph: Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters

Britain and France are "directly or indirectly" supporting al-Qaida in an escalating war against Syria , according to a senior minister in Damascus, who also warned neighbouring Jordan it was playing "a dangerous game" by allowing arms supplies to go to rebel groups from its territory.

Faisal al-Miqdad, Syria's vice-foreign minister, used a rare interview to attack the UK and France as "new colonialists" for providing political and military support to opposition fighters seeking to overthrow the president, Bashar al-Assad.

Damascus insists these fighters are terrorists with a jihadi agenda. Miqdad also lashed out at Turkey and "stupid Arabs" – singling out Saudi Arabia and Qatar – for acting "in western interests" and accused Israel of meddling in the conflict. He claimed "Mossad agents" had been killed in Deraa near the Jordanian border, where the rebels have made advances in recent weeks.

"There is a big conspiracy against Syria to force it to change its policies towards the Arab-Israeli conflict, to change its stance on Arab issues, and to have a government that will serve the interests of the US, UK and France," he told the Guardian on Monday to the sound of Syrian artillery pounding rebel positions around the capital.

Miqdad said the Syrian government had "no doubt" that rebels had used chemical weapons in Khan al-Assal near Aleppo, but it would only agree to a "real" UN investigation and not to a repeat of what had happened in Iraq. "The game is clear," he said. "They want to cover up what happened in Aleppo and create fictitious issues."

William Hague said on Monday that the claims must be urgently investigated and the perpetrators held to account.

Miqdad was keen to exploit last week's announcement that Jabhat al-Nusra, an Islamist fighting force, had pledged loyalty to al-Qaida in Iraq. However, Syria's mainstream, western-backed political opposition, the national coalition, condemned the move. The UK and France are now considering a US call to ban Jabhat al-Nusra as a terrorist group – reflecting growing concerns about the prominence of extremists in the anti-Assad camp. The coalition says their importance has been exaggerated by the Syrian government.

"Britain and France were complacent about supporting al-Qaida directly or indirectly," Miqdad said. " Now that Syria is flooded by Europeans fighting with al-Qaida, they are afraid. They wanted these people to come and be killed here, but when some of them started to go home, they changed their minds. They can tolerate killing in Syria and exaggerate what our government is doing, but they cannot defend this endlessly."

Britain and France have also said they are trying to alter the terms of the EU arms embargo on Syria to help the rebels. Miqdad said he was heartened by "very strong opposition" to this from Germany and other member states. He scorned Britain's insistence that it was sending only communications kit and other "non-lethal" equipment to the armed opposition.

"If I am travelling from here to my home in Deraa and some of their agents tell them that using these communications systems, I will be killed on the way," he said. "Even if they are not weapons they are tools for war."

Miqdad said he hoped that Jordan, now allowing Saudi-funded weapons transfers to the rebels , would not deepen its involvement any further. "The same forces that are killing innocent people in Syria are in Jordan too," he warned. "We have stupid Arabs who are facilitating what the others are planning for the region. But the conspiracy begins in the west."

Niccolo and Donkey Wednesday 17 Apr 2013

Stubby Angocachi President Camacho Thomas777 Roland SteamshipTime SweetLeftFoot

West will pay for 'supporting al-Qaeda in Syria', Assad warns

A bullish Mr Assad sought to exploit the West's embarrassment over the fractured opposition to his rule.

"The West has paid heavily for funding al-Qaeda in its early stages," he said during a rare appearance on state television. "Today, it is doing the same in Syria, Libya and other places, and will pay a heavy price in the heart of Europe and the United States."

Mr Assad was attempting to draw a parallel between American support for the mujaheddin in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the de facto alliance that has emerged between Western-backed rebels in Syria and hardline Islamists.

Mr Assad added: "There is no option but victory. Otherwise it will be the end of Syria, and I don't think that the Syrian people will accept such an option.

"The truth is there is a war and I repeat: no to surrender, no to submission."

Mr Assad's words suggested that he has been buoyed by last week's announcement by Jabhat al-Nusra, one of the most powerful rebel groups, that it owed allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Qaeda. Jabhat al-Nusra has been blacklisted as a terrorist group by the United States, but is still fighting alongside – and sharing weapons with – rebel factions supported by the West.

Mr Assad also criticised his neighbours for backing the uprising. Jordan has recently allowed a substantial quantity of arms – apparently bought by Saudi Arabia – to cross its border into Syria. "I cannot believe that hundreds (of rebels) are entering Syria with their weapons while Jordan is capable of arresting any single person with a light arm for going to resist in Palestine," said Mr Assad in the interview, which marked the anniversary of Syria's independence from France.

In response to the increased tensions between the two, America is sending 200 more troops to Jordan to bolster its defences, a Jordanian minister announced. US and other special forces are already believed to be based in the country.

Mr Assad's forces have recently managed to recapture territory from the rebels. Last weekend, they broke the siege on two army bases located south of Aleppo. Hamadiya and Wadi Deif, which sit on the vital highway linking Damascus with Aleppo, had been largely cut off for five months. But the army successfully ambushed rebels near the road, killing at least 20 in a major reversal of fortune.

The insurgents are now tyring to regain control of the highway, fearing that Mr Assad would otherwise be able to resupply his beleaguered battalions in Aleppo.

The rebels have been able to take a number of military bases and towns in northern Syria, but have not managed to muster the resources for a major push southwards towards Damascus. Instead, they have been fighting on new fronts in the south, between the capital and the Jordanian border, but with only mixed results.

Stubby Thursday 18 Apr 2013

Just wanted to post this to show the far left fighter, whose holding a rotary grenade launcher, which isn't a very common weapon, with few variants around the world. This confirms what was posted here by this blogger who monitors the weapons used in Syria: http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2013/01/evidence-of-multiple-foreign-weapon.html

The Syria Analysis Thread

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