The Syria Analysis Thread

Inkarri Sunday 27 Jan 2013

If I was in that situation and it were my mother or other family important to me then I would want for them to get away from all that to where it would be more safer too.

President Camacho Sunday 27 Jan 2013

The entire industrialized world is aligned against Assad, and everyone understands that he's waging an uphill battle. But for his "ally" to issue a statement like this is just a sleazy public withdrawal of support.

Fucking Russians... I think Mark Ames made the point once that they're the worst allies ever, that they can only wait to throw their "friends" under the bus (like the Egyptian Communist Party leadership, which the USSR flipped over to Sadat after he signed an armament contract). Russians only really respect and admire their bitter foes like the Nazis.

Wonder what kind of goodies the USA-NATO dangled in front of Putin's administration behind closed doors to cause this shift...

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 27 Jan 2013

President Camacho Angocachi Roland SweetLeftFoot SteamshipTime

Lots of disinfo going around, guys. Be wary of how the western press reports on what comes out of Russia, for example.

The French, the only country to recognize the rebel government, is taking an interesting view.

France sees no sign Syria's Assad will be toppled soon

PARIS/BEIRUT (Reuters) - France said on Thursday there were no signs that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is about to be overthrown, something Paris has been saying for months was just over the horizon.

The uprising against Assad's rule is now almost two years old. 60,000 Syrians have been killed and another 650,000 are now refugees abroad, according to the United Nations.

France, a former colonial ruler of Syria, has been one of the most vocal backers of the rebels trying to topple Assad and was the first to recognize the opposition coalition.

"Things are not moving. The solution that we had hoped for, and by that I mean the fall of Bashar and the arrival of the (opposition) coalition to power, has not happened," Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in his annual New Year's address to the press.

Fabius told RFI radio in December "the end is nearing" for Assad. But on Thursday, he said international mediation and discussions about the crisis that began in March 2011 were not getting anywhere. "There are no recent positive signs," he said.

Bob Dylan Roof Sunday 27 Jan 2013

I wonder if Gadhafi would have lasted this long with his air force intact.

Cadavre Exquis Sunday 27 Jan 2013

Odd.

The Russian version of RT is saying:

Regarding the situation in Syria, the primer minister acknowledged that "with every day, every week and every month," the chance for peace " is getting smaller and smaller."

Seems like what he actually said is getting lost in translation.

Niccolo and Donkey Monday 4 Feb 2013

It's still possible to have a coffee at a cafe in the old town of Damascus. But the outskirts of the Syrian capital are embattled, with troops loyal to President Bashar Assad trying to get the upper hand on rebel groups. Here, a destryoed residential street in the neighborhood of Haresta in Damascus.

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Indeed, some streets on the periphery of Damascus have an uncanny feel. Exterior walls of ruined buildings jut into the winter sky, and the air is periodically filled with the thunder of mortars and the rattling of machine guns. And yet, only a few hundred meters away, the shops are open and bazaar vendors are selling DVDs, jewelry, luggage and clothing. Here, a cafe in the Syrian capital.

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A rebel fighter throwing a hand grenade into a Syrian army base during battles in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus over the weekend. Some neighborhoods have been targeted by rebels because they are home to government civil servants.

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A Free Syrian Army fighter in a building destroyed by fighting in the Harest neighborhood of Damascus.

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Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 5 Feb 2013

Angocachi President Camacho Roland SteamshipTime SweetLeftFoot

A very, very tremendous and interesting development!

Finally, on Syria, Biden stuck to the same old script: Bashar al-Assad is "a tyrant, hell-bent on clinging to power", who "is no longer fit to lead the Syrian people" and "must go". But in true leading-from-behind form, that translates in practice into no US intervention, to the despair of the latest Washington-Doha-concocted Syrian "national coalition".

What you say is rubbish
Now for Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He actually met Moaz al-Khatib, the leader of the new Syrian opposition coalition, who - something unthinkable even a while ago - also happened to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Salehi.

On both Iran and Syria, Lavrov was laser-like. On Iran, he stressed the need for "incentives" so Iran is drawn to serious talks: "We have to convince Iran that it is not about regime change." On Syria, he stressed the "continuing tragedy" was due to "the persistence of those who say that priority number one is the removal of President Assad".

So listen to that buzzing, Kraftwerk-style sound out of Munich of the leader of the Syrian opposition meeting representatives of the twin top supporters of Assad - Iran and Russia. We will only see what this remarkable development really means in the long run. What we know for now is that it happened only a few days after al-Khatib said he was ready to talk to the Assad regime - on the condition 160,000 political prisoners were freed (Where do they keep all these people? In a huge gaol under the Crac des Chevaliers crusader castle?)

Team Zissou Tuesday 5 Feb 2013

These are not a people interested in fighting:

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Stubby Wednesday 13 Feb 2013

Syrian Insurgents Claim to Control Large Hydropower Dam

B EIRUT, Lebanon — Syrian insurgents and opposition activists said Monday that rebel forces had taken control of Syria ’s largest hydroelectric dam, an assertion that, if confirmed, would give them significant control over a vital reservoir and what remains of the sporadic power supplies in their war-ravaged country.
The Tabqa D am, built more than 40 years ago with Russian help on the Euphrates River in northeast Syria’s Raqqa Province, provides electricity to areas that are both in rebel and loyalist hands, including the contested city of Aleppo, and would be the third Euphrates dam taken by the rebels, who control two smaller facilities upriver.
But the Tabqa Dam, which the government once boasted had made Syria self-sufficient in power generation, is considered a more potent weapon in the battle for allegiances in the nearly two-year-old Syria conflict. Rebel-held areas have been systematically denied electricity by President Bashar al-Assad ’s forces in their effort to turn the population against the insurgency.
Claims that the Tabqa Dam was now in rebel control came as a possible new confrontation was brewing between Turkey and Syria after a Syrian minivan exploded just inside Turkish territory at Cilvegozu, an important border crossing near the rebel-held Syrian town of Bab al-Hawa. The blast killed at least 13 people, including 3 Turkish civilians; wounded at least 28; and damaged at least 19 vehicles.
The Turkish fatalities were believed to be the first related to the Syrian conflict since October, when a Syrian mortar shell killed five Turks near the border-crossing town of Akcakale, Turkey, eliciting a warning of retaliation by the Turkish government.
Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, did not rule out a bombing or suicide attack as the cause of the Cilvegozu explosion, and said all possibilities were under investigation at the border post in southern Turkey’s Hatay Province. But Syrian rebels, who get military and financial support from Turkey, quickly blamed Mr. Assad’s government for the explosion. Turkey, which hosts nearly 200,000 Syrian refugees, has repeatedly warned Mr. Assad’s government that it would not tolerate attacks along the 550-mile border.
Reports by rebel commanders and by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group based in Britain with a network of contacts in Syria, said insurgents had met little resistance as they swept into the Tabqa area on Sunday, seizing the dam and setting fire to an imposing statue of President Assad’s father and predecessor, Hafez, in the city of Tabqa.
The reservoir created by the dam, known as Lake Assad, is Syria’s largest and is vital for irrigating area farms and supplying drinking water to Aleppo.
The Syrian government did not confirm the insurgent claims. But videos uploaded on the Internet by insurgents appeared to corroborate they were in control of areas inside and outside the dam, although not necessarily the control room. One rebel fighter was quoted as saying the insurgents intended to divert power from the dam to rebel- held areas.
“We will cut all sources for the regime,” said the fighter, who identified himself by a first name, Nawaf.
He said that rebels also had taken control of large areas of Tabqa, including a military police barracks, an air force facility and an artillery base, seizing weapons and ammunition, and that they did not intend to damage any infrastructure.
“The Shabiha says, ‘Assad or burn the country,’ ” he said, using the term for the feared plainclothes pro-government militias. “We say, ‘We will burn Assad and keep the country.’ ”
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which had a similar account of events, also said rebel fighters had seized control of three neighborhoods that housed dam workers.
“The regime forces showed no resistance, while heads of security branches escaped using helicopters through Al Tabqa military airport,” the Observatory said in a statement. “The small town embodies the diverse Syrian society, as it has residents from different sects and ethnicities. The fighters have pledges not to harm any of the citizens.”
Fighters in the operation included members of the al-Nusra Front, the Islamic militant group that has developed a reputation for its fearless attacks on Mr. Assad’s military but has emerged as a problem for the United States. The United States wants to aid the insurgency but considers Al Nusra a terrorist organization with ties to Al Qaeda in Iraq

Cadavre Exquis Saturday 16 Feb 2013

The Syria Analysis Thread

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