The Syria Analysis Thread

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 19 Aug 2012

Every Sunni I've spoken with explicity calls them either non-Muslims or crypto-Christians.

Diaspora is the more likely bet where they'll disappear from history in a few generations.

Angocachi Sunday 19 Aug 2012

It's hatred, not an objective assessment of their doctrines and practices. They believe and do some things most Muslims, even Shia, do not... mostly things they picked up/inherited from Christians. All but the least observant adhere to the 5 pillars.

Possible. The Sunni have spent centuries wishing to clear up the Levant, but every time they come close there's a crusade, colonial occupation, or Israel. From the Negev to Hattay, they can't seem to subdue it. We might end up with an Alawi-Christian state north of Lebanon.

SweetLeftFoot Tuesday 21 Aug 2012

Plenty of Syrians here already, especially Christians.

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 26 Aug 2012

Angocachi Roland President Camacho SweetLeftFoot SteamshipTime Thomas777

Britain and US plan a Syrian revolution from an innocuous office block in Istanbul

Dozens of dissidents have been ferried out of Syria to be vetted for foreign backing. Recipients of the aid are given satellite communications and computers so that they can act as a local "hub" linking local activists and the outside world.

The training takes place in an Istanbul district where handsome apartment blocks line the steep slopes and rooftop terraces boast views over the Golden Horn waterway.

Behind closed doors the distractions of outdoor coffee shops and clothing boutiques gives way to power point displays charting the mayhem sweeping Syria.

"We are not 'king-making' in Syria. The UK and the US are moving cautiously to help what has been developing within Syria to improve the capabilities of the opposition," said a British consultant overseeing the programme. "What's going to come next? Who is going to control territory across Syria. We want to give civilians the skills to assert leadership."

Once up and running dissidents can expect help to deal with local shortages and troubleshooting advice from sympathisers.

But the activists also face two days of vetting designed to ensure that the programme does not fall into the trap of promoting sectarian agendas or the rise of al-Qaeda-style fundamentalists.
"Rather than being about promoting political platforms in Syria, it's about creating a patchwork of people who share common values," the consultant said.

The schemes are overseen by the US State Department's Office of Syrian Opposition Support (OSOS) and Foreign Office officials. America has set aside $25 million for political opponents of President Bashar al-Assad while Britain is granting £5 million to the cause of overthrowing the regime.

Mina al-Homsi (a pseudonym) is one of the first graduates of the training.

She now spends her days plotting how to spread seditious messages throughout her homeland through her own network, named Basma.

One of its main activities is to repackage video shot by amateurs into a format that can be used by broadcasters.

In addition to running online television and radio forums, the Basma team have had "tens of thousands" of satirical stickers depicting President Bashar al-Assad as a featherless duck for distribution as agitprop.

An initiative, proposed by Foreign Secretary William Hague, to document evidence of crimes committed in the fighting for use in potential International Criminal Court trials, has been transformed into the multinational project to build Syria's next governing class.

"This has been a generational coming of age," said the consultant, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The Foreign Secretary started this as a way to make sure that people who committed crimes in Syria would be held to account. Those of us with experience of the Balkans have taken the lessons of that conflict very much as a formative experience."

With the entry of American funding for a much wider scheme, the need to avoid the mistakes of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has also driven the planning.

"It's also not Iraq or Afghanistan – there are no bundles of cash being dropped on the problem without accountability," he said.

Jon Wilks, the Foreign Office diplomat who serves as envoy to the Syrian opposition, told the Arabic newspaper al Sharq al Aswat last week that Britain was already working to lay the foundations of democracy in a post-Assad Syria.

He said: "We must train activists on governing locally in villages and cities in Syria for the post-transitional phase."

Officials are adamant there will be no crossover between the civilian "non-lethal" assistance and the military campaign waged by the rebel fighters.

The scheme has, however, infuriated the exiled opposition body, the Syrian National Council. Its failure to provide a united and coherent front against the regime has led some western officials to brief privately that foreign governments were shifting support beyond the exiled body.

But in a barely furnished office in a tower block near Istanbul airport an SNC official decried the false promises of its allies. "We've heard a lot of promises from the very beginning of the SNC but none of those have been fulfilled," the SNC official said. "This has reflected absolutely negatively on our work. The opposition of Syria wants the world to provide humanitarian aid for the people in need and the Free Syria Army wants intervention to stop planes bombing their positions.

"Instead they go around behind our back undermining our role."

Team Zissou Sunday 26 Aug 2012

My tax dollars at work.

Niccolo and Donkey Tuesday 11 Sep 2012

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/embed/swdzlTExRVc

Niccolo and Donkey Sunday 16 Sep 2012

Angocachi Roland President Camacho anunnaki Bronze Age Pervert SteamshipTime

Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander says its troops in Syria

(Reuters) - Members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are providing non-military assistance in Syria and Iran may get involved militarily if its closest ally comes under attack, commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari said on Sunday.

Jafari's statement is the first official acknowledgement that Iran has a military presence on the ground in Syria where an 18-month-old uprising has left tens of thousands dead.

Western countries and Syrian opposition groups have long suspected Iran has troops in Syria. Iran has denied this.

"A number of members of the Qods force are present in Syria but this does not constitute a military presence," Iranian news agency ISNA quoted Jafari as saying at a news conference.

Qods is an IRGC unit set up to export Iran's ideology. It has been accused of plotting attacks inside Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

Jafari did not indicate how many IRGC members were in Syria but said they were providing "intellectual and advisory help".

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 21 Sep 2012

Roland President Camacho SteamshipTime Angocachi

Assad says regime will not fall, predicts defeat of Syrian opposition

Mr. Assad also launched one of his harshest attacks on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have been among his strongest critics and backers of the opposition, saying they are trying to influence the region with their money.

“They think their money can buy geography, history and a regional role,” Mr. Assad said.

“They are giving terrorists weapons and money with hope of repeating the Libyan model,” he added. “Instead of helping regional stability they are supplying armed elements with weapons and training in order to weaken the Syrian state.”

The upheaval in Syria presents an opportunity for the Gulf’s Sunni rulers to bolster their influence and possibly leave Shia powerhouse Iran without its critical alliances that flow through Damascus. Mr. Assad’s regime, which is allied strongly with Iran, is led by the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shia Islam.

Syria’s ties with the Gulf nations have been strained in the past — Assad once called Saudi King Abdullah and other Arab leaders “half men” for being critical of Hezbollah over the 34-day war between the Lebanese Shia militant group and Israel in 2006.

Niccolo and Donkey Friday 28 Sep 2012

Syria regime texts rebels on cellphones: ‘Game over’

Vuk Sunday 30 Sep 2012

Documents Show Russia Ordered Syria Shoot Down Turkish Jet

The Atlantic Wire

Connor Simpson

September 30, 2012

Saudi-owned news agency Al Arabiya are touting a massive leak of Syrian intelligence documents , and their first leak alleges to show Russia was the one who ordered Syria take down the Turkish fighter jet in June, and for Syria to kill and dispose of the pilots.

Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom in June, seemingly at random. Initial reports said the two pilots were recovered and in good health, but they never turned up. The plane was recovered in international waters, but the pilots weren't discovered until a few days later. Assad apologized for shooting down the plane and offering that he thought it was an Israeli jet as an excuse.

But according to Al Arabiya's leaked intelligence documents they received from Syrian rebels, that's not the whole story. Damascus' official intelligence documents allege Syria, working with Russia's naval base in Syria, shot down the fighter jet and Syrian Air Force officials recovered the pilots. Assad ordered the pilots be taken in as war prisoners and questioned over Turkey's role in helping the Free Syrian Army. But Russia intervened :

A subsequently leaked file, also sent from the presidential palace and addressed to all heads of units of the Syrian foreign intelligence, reads: “Based on information and guidance from the Russian leadership comes a need to eliminate the two Turkish pilots detained by the Special Operations Unit in a natural way and their bodies need to be returned to the crash site in international waters.”

Syria was also ordered to threaten Turkey with mobilizing the Kurdistan’s Workers Party on Turkey's borders if they thought about responding to the downed fighter jet. Russia ordered Assad apologize to try and court public opinion, but his idea of claiming he thought it was Israeli jet didn't really do that.

The Syria Analysis Thread

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